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As April transitions into May, market participants got their first clear insight into how the new tariffs are impacting the economy. The Friday report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics offered some optimism as employers added 177,000 jobs over the past month. This was more than the projected 138,000 new jobs and was only slightly below last month’s figure of 185,000.

On Tuesday, the CB Consumer Confidence Report and the JOLTS Report were released. The consumer confidence reading was 86, which was lower than the March reading of 93.9, which had been revised upward prior to Tuesday’s release. We will have to wait to see if there will be revisions to the most recent number. There were 7.19 million positions available in the United States in April, compared to an expected 7.49 million openings. Last month, there were 7.48 million jobs available.

The Core PCE Price Index came in flat, which means that prices remained stable over the past month. Over the past few years, this has been the Federal Reserve’s preferred method of tracking inflation. A flat reading brings more speculation that rate cuts will be forthcoming.
Unemployment claims for the past week were higher than expected. There were 241,000 requests for benefits compared to an expected 224,000.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI reading came in at 48.7, which was slightly higher than expected. It was believed that the April reading would come in at 48.

On Friday, average hourly earnings as well as the unemployment rate for the past month were released. Average hourly earnings went up .2 percent compared to an expected .3 percent while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2 percent. A slower wage growth is considered less inflationary and should make it easier for the Fed to continue its easing cycle.

The S&P 500 was up 147 points this week to close at 5,686, which was a gain of 2.47 percent over the past five trading days. On Wednesday morning, the index made its weekly low of 5,452 before reversing and gaining ground the rest of the week. The market made its weekly high of 5,697 late Friday afternoon.

The Dow also finished the week in positive territory gaining 1,091 points to close the week at 41,317. This represented a gain of 2.71 percent for a market that had been particularly hard hit by the recent sell-off. As with the S&P 500, the Dow made its low of the week on Wednesday and closed near its weekly high. The low of the week was 39,843 while the high was 41,341.

Finally, the Nasdaq finished up 566 points to close the week at 17,977. This was a gain of 3.25 percent for the week. As you may expect, the index made its weekly low on Wednesday before reversing and closing near the weekly high. The weekly low for the Nasdaq was 17,021 while the weekly high was 18,042.

In international news, Mark Carney was elected to a full term as Canada’s head of state. He recently took over for Justin Trudeau who resigned after polling indicated that he had lost the confidence of his party and voters. Also this week, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced that it would take a more dovish approach to inflation, vowing to wait until 2027 to take more aggressive moves.

The upcoming week should be an interesting one as a couple of key reports are set to be released. On Tuesday, the ISM Services PMI will come out while the FOMC releases its May rate decision on Wednesday. It’s expected that rates will remain unchanged in May before a possible cut in June.

The final full trading week in April was yet another consequential one as markets continued to grapple with tariff implications. This week, it was revealed that tensions with China could ease as both sides understand that a protracted trade war could lead to long-term damage.

There were several scheduled announcements that also contributed to market volatility over the past few days. On Monday, the Flash Manufacturing PMI report came in at 50.7, which was slightly higher than the expected reading of 49. It also indicates that the manufacturing sector is in a period of expansion, which has been a rare sight over the past few years.

On Wednesday, the Flash Services PMI came in at 51.4, which was slightly lower than the expected 52.2. Despite the miss, the reading says that the service sector is also expanding. While an increase in manufacturing may be the result of companies trying to buy products before tariffs fully go into effect, the same can’t be said of services. Instead, it may indicate a source of economic strength going forward.

Also on Wednesday, it was revealed that new home sales were higher than expected in March. In that month, there were 724,000 new homes sold compared to an expected 684,000. Home buying can also be seen as a positive sign for the economy as new homeowners generally spend money on furniture, home maintenance projects and other items.

However, this may be tempered by the results of the existing home sale report. On Thursday, it was revealed that 4.02 million such properties were sold compared to 4.27 million a month ago.

On Friday, the University of Michigan revealed its consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data. Consumer sentiment rebounded slightly to 52.2 from 50.8 last month. Respondents expect the inflation rate to be 6.5 percent a year from now, compared to 6.7 percent last month.

The S&P 500 made up some of its losses for the year as it finished up 5.72 percent for the week. The market made its low of the week on Monday when it dipped to 5,104 and closed the week at its highest point. Despite the rally during the last five trading days, the index is still down 4.13 percent in April.

As with the S&P 500, the Dow was also higher this week closing up 1,422 to finish at 40,113. This was a gain of 3.68 percent for the last five trading days during a week that saw the market start near its low and gain ground as the week progressed. On Monday afternoon, the Dow made its low of the week at 37,952 while it closed at its highest point of the week on Friday afternoon.

Finally, the Nasdaq also saw significant gains this week as the index surged 8.22 percent to finish at 17,382 at the close of trading on Friday. As with the other two major indexes, the Nasdaq started at the low of the week and closed near the highs on Friday. On Monday, the market dipped to 15,741 before reversing.

In addition to news in the United States, there were a few major new items that were released by other nations. On Friday, it was revealed that retail sales in Great Britain were up .4 percent over the past month compared to an expected drop of .3 percent. On that same day, Canada announced that retail sales dipped .4 percent, which was in line with expectations. However, core retail sales were up .4 percent compared to an expected dip of .3 percent.

The upcoming week should be another interesting one as there will surely be more fallout and uncertainty regarding tariff implementation. For instance, the JOLTS report is scheduled for Monday while the nonfarm payroll reports are expected to come out on Wednesday and Friday.

Although the trading week was abbreviated because of the Good Friday holiday, it wasn’t short on drama. Wednesday provided the first bit of important information as core and overall retail sales data was released that morning.

For the month of March, retail core sales were up .5 percent compared to an expected increase of .4 percent. Overall retail sales were up 1.4 percent compared to an expected 1.3 percent. This was in spite of the fact that many believed that retail sales would soften in the face of Trump’s tariffs.

However, some believe that the positive number occurred thanks to consumers scrambling to make purchases before they went into effect. Although there is evidence in the retail sales report to suggest that this isn’t the full story, it’s hard to believe that people weren’t buying, at least in part to beat higher prices in the future.

Whether the March report is indicative of anything won’t be known for another month or two. By then, any lasting consequences should be reflected in future reports, and if consumers act anything like investors did in April, it may be fair to draw a line between tariffs and consumer behavior.

Also on Wednesday, Jerome Powell made some prepared remarks about the economy and fiscal policy. He said that the labor market is strong and that the Fed’s dual mandates were not in conflict at the moment. In addition to ensuring price stability, the Fed is also tasked with ensuring full employment.

It’s believed that tariffs will lead to inflation and higher unemployment, which would force the Fed to decide which of their goals is more important at the moment. Of course, President Trump wants interest rates to come down no matter what as the EU and other central banks have eased policy.

President Trump has also threatened to get rid of Powell if he doesn’t do what he asks. It’s worth noting that Powell’s term is over in 13 months, and at that point, Trump can replace Powell with few questions asked.

On Thursday, the last scheduled significant news announcement was made regarding unemployment claims data. Over the last seven days, there were 215,000 requests for benefits compared to an expected 225,000 requests.

The S&P 500 closed at 5,282, which represents a gain of about three points over the past five trading days. The index hit a high of 5,443 on Monday morning before reversing and heading back toward last Friday’s low of 5,224. On Wednesday, the market made its low of the week at roughly that same number before reversing and gaining ground into Thursday’s close.

The Dow finished about 377 points lower for the week to close at 39,142. Like the S&P, the Dow made a high of the week on Monday but made its low of the week on Thursday. The Monday high was 40,746 while the Thursday morning low was 39,040.

Finally, the Nasdaq followed the other two indexes by making its high of the week on Monday morning. After peaking at 17,001, the index reversed and made a low of 16,106 on Wednesday afternoon. On Thursday, the index closed at 16,286, which represents a drop of 1.12 percent over the last five trading days.

There were a number of important news announcements from outside the United States that might be of interest to American investors. Canada announced on Tuesday that its monthly inflation reading came in at .3 percent while the median CPI came in at 2.9 percent. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada (BOC) announced that the country’s key interest rate would remain at 2.75 percent.

On Wednesday night, Australia announced that its unemployment rate dropped to 4.1 percent over the past month. Finally, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced that the main refinancing rate would fall from 2.65 percent to 2.4 percent.

The upcoming week should be another consequential one as the Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI are set to be released on Wednesday. Unemployment claims data is scheduled to be released Thursday while the University of Michigan will release consumer sentiment and inflation expectation figures.