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Although markets were closed on Friday in observance of the Independence Day holiday, there was plenty of action over the first four days of the week. The main event was the June jobs report that was released on Thursday. The ADP also released its version of the jobs report on Wednesday.

The BLS version released on July 2 found that the economy added a relatively lackluster 57,000 jobs during the previous month. Analysts had predicted an increase of 114,000. It’s worth noting that the May report was revised downward to an increase of 129,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3 percent as expected while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.2 percent.

In addition, the ADP version of the nonfarm payroll figures also came in lower than expected. It found that the economy added 98,000 positions compared to an expected 118,000. The May report was left unchanged.

This will have a significant influence on monetary policy going forward. Already, Fed Chair Warsh has suggested that there will be no rate hikes soon. This statement conflicted with market expectations for at least one rate hike in 2026. The perceived end of hostilities with Iran will likely remove a significant inflationary pressure on the market.

At least, that is the guidance that Warsh has provided as he has indicated inflationary pressures in general have begun to ease over the past four weeks. Gas prices have moderated slightly in the past week, which is likely a welcome relief to motorists who tend to travel more during the summer months.

Several other reports came out this week that created some market volatility. On Tuesday, the CB Consumer Confidence report came in at 91.2. Although it was higher than last month’s reading, it was lower than the 94.4 analysts had predicted prior to its release.

In addition, the JOLTS report came out and found that there were 7.59 million job openings in the United States. This matched May’s figure while coming in higher than analyst expectations of 7.28 million openings prior to the release.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI came out Wednesday at 53.3, which was slightly lower than the expected 53.8. However, it does suggest that the manufacturing sector is expanding, which is generally a net positive for the economy.

Finally, unemployment claims data for the last seven days came out on Thursday morning. Over that period, there were 215,000 requests for benefits compared to an expected 219,000.

The S&P 500 was up more than 2 percent over the past five trading days finishing the week at 7,483. This was a gain of 156 points over the period. The index made a low of 7,357 on Monday morning and a high of 7,537 on Thursday morning.

As with the S&P 500, the Dow finished in the green for the week. It gained more than 1,000 points over the past five trading days to close at 52,900, which is a new all-time high. The Dow made a weekly low of 52,067 on Monday and closed near its weekly high on Thursday.

Finally, the Nasdaq was up 2.64 percent over the last five trading days to finish the week at 25,832. This was a gain of more than 600 points and is flirting with all-time highs. During the past week, it made a low of 25,373 on Monday and a high of 25,233 on Wednesday.

In international news, Canada announced Tuesday that its gross domestic product (GDP) was up 0.5 percent over the past month. On Thursday, Switzerland announced that inflation was flat over the last month.

On Wednesday, the FOMC will release the minutes from the June meeting, which will likely provide more insight into where the Fed sees interest rates going over the next few months.

The final full trading week in June was another consequential one as several key events took place. On Thursday, the Core PCE Price Index and final estimate for the first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) were released. More tensions between the United States and Iran had an influence on both oil and gold prices.

The Core PCE Price Index came in at 0.3 percent, which was in line with analyst expectations. According to the IMF, this result provides validation that the Fed was right to remain steady on interest rates. The IMF also said that the United States is in position to bring inflation back to the Fed’s 2 percent target by the end of 2027.

During the first quarter of 2026, it’s now believed that the economy grew by 2.1 percent as opposed to 1.6 percent as first reported. This is another reason why interest rates are unlikely to change soon as growth tends to counteract increases in prices. There are some who believe that the Fed will be hesitant to raise rates before the midterm elections to avoid any implication that politics were involved in the decision.

Although a memorandum of understanding (MOU) was signed by Iran and the United States, there are still bursts of hostilities between the two sides. Late this week, Iran targeted a ship in the Strait of Hormuz with a drone despite its obligation under the MOU to allow unfettered access to the waterway.

Gold prices rebounded from a low of around $3,950 an ounce on Wednesday afternoon to close the week at $4,087. The price of gold has fallen significantly in recent weeks in large part because of easing tension in the Middle East. Often, gold is a hedge against geopolitical tensions and their impact on fiat currencies.

Oil also took a nosedive this week with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) falling to a low of $73.81 per barrel. The price of WTI began the month of June at just under $100 per barrel as a projected increase in production and supply of oil reduces demand and the price people are willing to pay. Of course, it’s unlikely that drivers will see any immediate relief at the gas pump.

The S&P 500 dropped 2 percent this week to close at 7,354 at the end of trading Friday. This is a drop of 151 points over the course of the last five trading days. For the week, the index made a high of 7,527 at the open on Monday and a low of 7,318 on Friday.

The Dow was up by 0.12 percent this week to close at 51,876 at the end of the day on Friday. On Tuesday, the market made its low of the week at 51,403 before reversing and making a high of 52,610 on Thursday.

The Nasdaq was down 4.34 percent this week to close at 25,292. The index experienced outsized losses compared to the other two major indexes because of concerns about chip production and the future of AI. This week, the market made a high of 26,503 on Monday and a low of 25,327 on Thursday.

In international news, Canada announced on Monday that inflation was up 1 percent in May. It also announced that inflation was up 2 percent on an annualized basis. On Tuesday, Australia announced that inflation had gone down by 0.7 percent compared to an expected decrease of 0.4 percent. This translates to an inflation rate of 4 percent on an annualized basis for the nation. On Thursday, Japan announced its inflation rate was 1.6 percent on a yearly basis.

The upcoming week will likely be another interesting one as the jobs report for June is expected to be released on Thursday. The JOLTS report will also come out next week while Fed Chair Warsh is expected to give testimony before the July 4 holiday. The market will be closed on Friday in observance of Independence Day.

The third week in June was a truncated due to the Juneteenth holiday on Friday. However, it doesn’t mean that there weren’t any important events that took place over the first four days of the week. Subjectively, the two biggest stories were the June rate decision from the Fed and the tentative end of the war in Iran.

On Wednesday afternoon, the Fed decided to keep interest rates steady at 3.75 percent. However, it is possible that the Fed will decide to hike rates at least once this year if inflation continues to remain sticky at levels above 3 percent. Earlier in June, it was revealed that inflation was 4.2 percent on an annualized basis in May.

Fed Chair Warsh said that he didn’t think that the Fed had to choose between inflation and employment when making monetary policy. Traditionally, the central bank has had a dual mandate to ensure full employment and price stability. It appears that inflation will be the priority even if it leads to softness in employment numbers.

On Monday, a memorandum of understanding was reached between the United States and Iran. That sent oil prices plummeting to below $80 a barrel as it appears that the Strait of Hormuz will be open to all traffic soon. Of course, this is not an official end to the war, and President Trump has said that he will be open to further hostilities.

Also on Wednesday, retail sale data for May came in and revealed that sales were up 0.9 percent compared to an expected 0.5 percent. Core retail sales were up 0.8 percent compared to an expected increase of 0.6 percent.

On Thursday, unemployment claims remained steady coming in at 226,000 for the last seven days. This was compared to 230,000 a week ago. The actual figure was roughly in line with what analysts expected prior to the release.

The S&P 500 was up over 1 percent over the four trading days this week to close at 7,500. This is a gain of more than 100 points for an index that is up about 1 percent over the past four weeks. This week, it made a high of 7,573 on Monday and a low of 7,408 on Wednesday.

The Dow was up more than 750 points to close at 51,564 on Thursday afternoon. As with the S&P 500, the Dow has rewarded investors with positive returns over the past month and the past year. It is up almost 4 percent since mid-May and over 22 percent since this time in 2025. For the week, it made a high of 52,236 on Wednesday and a low of 51,500 later that same day.

Finally, the Nasdaq was up over 3 percent and closed trading on Thursday at 26,517. This was a gain of more than 800 points.

In international news, Australia announced early Tuesday morning that it would keep its key interest rate at 4.35 percent. Japan also announced early Tuesday that it would increase the country’s main rate to about 1 percent. On Thursday, Switzerland opted to keep its key rate at 0 percent while Great Britain kept its rate unchanged at 3.75 percent.

The upcoming week will likely be another interesting one as markets continue to deal with the aftermath of the end of the Iran war. In addition, the Core PCE Price Index for May will be released on Thursday along with unemployment claim data. International traders will likely look forward to inflation data coming out of Australia, Canada and Japan.