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The past week provided a lot of intrigue and plot twists for investors as several important data points were revealed. On Tuesday, the inflation data for February was released, coming in a touch hotter than expected. Although overall monthly inflation was in-line with expectations, Core CPI was .4 percent, which was higher than the .3 percent expected by analysts prior to the news release. Annual inflation was also higher than expected as analysts believed annual inflation was 3.1 percent in February.

As a result, bond yields rose during the 10-year Treasury note auction that was held Tuesday afternoon. The highest yield was 4.17 percent compared to 4.09 percent the last time that the 10-year bond auction occurred. It was also the highest yield for this type of bond in 2024. However, the 30-year bond auction on Wednesday saw a high of 4.33 percent, which was slightly lower than the 4.36 percent recorded last month.

On Thursday, retail sales and price producer index (PPI) data was released. Retail sales were up .6 percent compared to an expected increase of .8 percent over the past month. Core retail sales were up .3 percent compared to an expected increase of .5 percent. However, prices accelerated faster than expected in February with Core PPI coming in at .3 percent compared to an expected .2 percent increase. Meanwhile, the overall PPI figure came in at .6 percent compared to an expected increase of .3 percent.

Unemployment claims data for the past seven days was also released on Thursday. There were 209,000 requests for benefits made during that time period compared to an expected 218,000. This week’s figure was also slightly lower than last week’s revised figure of 210,000.

On Friday, the Empire State Manufacturing Index was released and came in at negative 20.9. That figure was significantly lower than the expected negative seven, and it was also the fourth straight month in which the index indicated a decline in manufacturing.

Finally, the University of Michigan released its consumer sentiment and inflation expectation reports. Consumer sentiment came in at 76.5 percent while inflation was expected to be at 3 percent a year from now.

The S&P 500 finished the week up 5.78 points to close at 5,117. This was a .11 percent increase over the past five trading days that saw the market rally between Monday and Wednesday before reversing. On Wednesday, the market made a weekly high of 5,177 before making a weekly low of 5,105 on Friday morning. The S&P is up a little over 2 percent this month and is up 7.89 percent year-to-date.

Unlike the S&P, the Nasdaq was down this week finishing 82.43 points lower to close at 15,973. This represented a drop of .51 percent over the past five trading days. As with the S&P, the Nasdaq began the week on a high note before peaking on Tuesday, reversing on Wednesday and making a low on Friday. The weekly high was 16,266 while the weekly low was 15,927. Year-to-date, the Nasdaq has returned 8.18 percent.

The Dow was able to make it two out of three major indices to finish in profit for the week. It finished up 63.79 points to close at 38,714, which was an increase of .17 percent from the previous week. The index would make its high of the week on Wednesday peaking at 39,135 while making a low of the week on Friday of 38,622. Year-to-date, the index has returned 2.65 percent.

In international news, Japan announced on Monday that its PPI was up .6 percent on an annualized basis. There were also reports this week that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may be ready to abandon its policy of negative interest rates. Great Britain announced on Tuesday that its monthly GDP improved to .2 percent from negative .1 percent a month ago.

This upcoming week will feature important news reports from the United States and other developed economies. On Wednesday, the Fed will make its March rate decision while Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to speak on Friday. Japan and Australia will make interest rate decisions sometime on Monday or Tuesday. Meanwhile, Canada will be releasing its inflation data on Tuesday while a multitude of releases will come out across the Eurozone on Thursday.

The first full week in March was a consequential one as the nonfarm payroll (NFP) was released on Friday. However, it was far from the only important news that came out over the past five trading days.

On Tuesday, the ISM Services PMI was released and revealed a slight slowdown in service sector demand. The March report came in at 52.6 percent, which was slightly lower than the projected 53 percent before the news was released and was also just below the 53.4 percent from last month. Essentially, the number means that service demand is still growing, though not at as fast a pace.

A pair of important new reports were released on Wednesday with the Job Openings Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealing that there were 8.86 million positions available in February. This was roughly in line with what analysts expected and just below the 8.89 million openings in January.

Also on Wednesday, the ADP nonfarm payroll report was made public. It found that the economy added 140,000 jobs in February compared to an expected 149,000. However, this was still an increase from the 111,000 jobs added in January.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave prepared remarks on Wednesday and said that the path to 2 percent inflation would likely be a bumpy one. However, he also said that rate cuts would likely be appropriate in the near future if the economy continued to evolve as expected. He expressed a similar sentiment in another speech given on Thursday morning.

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the more anticipated NFP. It found that there were 275,000 jobs added to the economy in February, which was much higher than the 198,000 projected. Furthermore, it was revealed that the unemployment rate had gone up to 3.9 percent and average hourly earnings on a monthly basis had gone up by .1 percent. It was expected that the unemployment rate would be 3.7 percent and that average hourly earnings would have increased by .2 percent.

The Dow lost 258 points this week to finish at 38,722. It would make a weekly high of 39,064 on Monday before dipping to a low of 38,474 on Tuesday. Despite the losses this week, the Dow is still up 2.67 percent for the year.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 lost 7.51 points to finish at 5,123 for the week. It would hit a weekly low of 5,056 on Tuesday before rebounding and making a high of 5,187 on Friday morning. The S&P has gained 8.03 percent in 2024.

Finally, the Nasdaq would also give back some of its gains this week finishing 155 points lower to close at 16,085. The market made a low of 15,869 on Tuesday and a high of 16,429 on Friday. As with the other markets, the Nasdaq is up 8.93 percent this year.

In overseas news, Switzerland reported on Monday that inflation rose to .6 percent on a monthly basis. On Tuesday, Australia reported gross domestic product growth of .2 percent in the past quarter. The Bank of Canada decided to hold its interest rate steady at 5 percent on Wednesday. On Friday, the BOC announced that the country’s unemployment rate was still 5.8 percent although more than 40,000 jobs were added in the last month.

The upcoming week will see the release of inflation figures. Price, retail sale and unemployment claim data are all set to be released on Thursday while the Empire State Manufacturing Index will be made public on Friday. The University of Michigan will also release its preliminary sentiment and inflation expectation data for the month.

The market has abandoned the belief a rate cut would occur in March. There are also whispers that a potential June cut may be followed by additional easing later in 2024.

On Wednesday, the minutes from the FOMC’s January meeting were released to the public. As many assumed, the Fed said that it was waiting for greater signs that inflation was heading closer to 2 percent before making any changes to the existing interest rate. Furthermore, the FOMC said that it would be paying close attention to potential inflation risks such as elevated housing prices or steady demand for services.

The next inflation report will be issued on March 12, and it is believed that the inflation rate should be under 3 percent at that point. However, this assumes that jobs data and inflation figures from January were a seasonal outlier and not a sign of prolonged economic strength.

On Thursday, a number of reports were issued that had an impact on American markets. First, the Flash Services and Flash Manufacturing PMI were released and came in at 51.3 percent and 51.5 percent respectively. The services figure was below analysts’ estimates of 52.4 percent while the manufacturing figure was higher than the analyst estimate of 50.5 percent prior to the release. Regardless, these figures indicate that demand for both manufacturing and services are expanding at a moderate pace.

Unemployment claims data revealed that 201,000 people filed for benefits in the last seven days. This was much lower than the 217,000 projected requests for benefits as well as lower than last week’s figure of 213,000. Finally, existing home sales data was released and revealed that four million homes had been sold over the previous months. The figure beat last month’s result of 3.88 million sales as well as analyst estimates of 3.96 million sales. An increase in home sales may release some pressure on rising prices, which may help to moderate overall inflation.

The S&P 500 was up 1.38 percent this week to close at 5,088. On Wednesday, the market hit a low of 4,950 before rebounding to hit a high of 5,110 on Friday.

Like the S&P, the Nasdaq was also a net gainer for the week finishing up 109.77 points to close at 15,996. The Nasdaq hit its low of the week on Wednesday when it dipped to 15,482 and hit its high on Friday at 16,118.

Finally, the Dow was up more than 420 points to finish at 39,131 for the week. As with the other major indexes, it would make a low of the week on Wednesday before rebounding and making a high on Friday. The weekly low was 38,390 while the weekly high was 39,255.

There were a variety of news reports released outside of the United States that might have some bearing on domestic markets. Canada revealed on Tuesday that inflation remained flat in January and that inflation dropped to 3.3 percent on an annualized basis. In China, officials revealed on Monday that the interest rate on loans with a term of one year was being dropped from 4.1 percent to 3.95 percent.

On Thursday, most of the major European economies released their own Flash Services and Manufacturing PMI numbers. Most nations reported a contraction in their manufacturing sectors but an increase in demand for services. Finally, the EU reported that inflation across the region was 2.8 percent on an annualized basis.

This upcoming week is going to be full of important news releases in the United States and abroad. In the United States, the CB Consumer Confidence report, initial GDP figures and revised University of Michigan consumer confidence and inflation figures will be made public. Internationally, New Zealand, Australia and Japan will release their most recent inflation numbers while Germany and other European nations will do the same.