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Market Perspective for May 31, 2026

Market Perspective for May 31, 2026

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It was another interesting week for market participants. Perhaps the most important event was news that the United States and Iran are closing in on a permanent peace deal. Although the two sides have negotiated a temporary cease fire, there is still no agreement to officially end hostilities.

This had an impact on oil and gold prices as they both took a significant tumble as the week progressed. Gold dropped below $4,400 an ounce before rebounding to close the week roughly where it had opened on Monday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil dropped from around $100 a barrel at the start of the week to about $90 at the close of Friday.

The other major news event this week was the release of the Core PCE Price Index and the preliminary GDP figures for the first quarter of the 2026. The Core PCE Price Index is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation and came in at 0.2 percent for the month compared to an expected rise of 0.3 percent.

Preliminary GDP data suggests that the economy grew by 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2026. This was less than the expected growth of 2 percent, and it could be a sign the economy might finally be wilting from the weight of higher inflation and wage pressures. For what it’s worth, unemployment claims rose slightly in the past week to 215,000 requests for benefits.

Consumer confidence was up slightly according to data from the Consumer Board. On Tuesday, it was revealed that consumer confidence was at 93.1 compared to an expected 91.9. However, that was still slightly lower than last month’s 93.8, and generally speaking, any reading lower than 100 suggests consumer pessimism. The data also meshes with the consensus from the University of Michigan that says consumers are extremely pessimistic about where the economy is going.

Despite what consumers might feel right now, the stock market continues to be resilient. The S&P 500 was up 90 points this week to close at 7,580. This was a 1.2 percent increase from the start of trading on Monday, and in the last 12 months, the index is up just over 28 percent. For the week, the index made a low of 7,506 on Tuesday and a high of 7,595 on Friday.

The Dow was also in the green this week, closing up 382 points to finish the week at 51,032. This was a 0.76 percent increase over the past several days for an index that is up almost 1,800 points over the past month and up about 21 percent over the past 12 months. This week, the index made a low of 50,367 on Tuesday and a high of 51,068 late on Friday.

Finally, the Nasdaq was up 2 percent this week to close at 26,972. That was an increase of about 531 points for the index that has continued to achieve the highest rates of return for investors of the three major markets. Over the past 12 months, the Nasdaq is up over 40 percent. This week, the Nasdaq made a low of 26,548 on Tuesday and a high of 27,084 on Friday.

In international news, Australia reported on Tuesday that inflation was up 0.4 percent over the last month, which translated to 4.2 percent on an annualized basis. Also on Tuesday, New Zealand announced that it would hold its key interest rate at 2.25 percent. On Thursday night, Japan announced that its inflation rate was 1.3 percent on an annualized basis.

For the coming week, we can expect the jobs reports to be released on Wednesday and Friday. In addition, the ISM Services and ISM Manufacturing PMI reports will come out, as well as the JOLTS labor report. Central bank governors from most major economies are also expected to speak throughout the week, which could give some insight into which direction the Fed might take on monetary policy in the United States.

Market Perspective for May 24, 2026

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This was another interesting week for market participants as several news items were released. The first major news item came out on Tuesday as pending home sales data for April was made public. During that time, there was a 1.4 percent increase in sales compared to an expected increase of 1 percent.

Typically, those who buy a home will furnish it with new goods, pay for repairs and otherwise spend money to make the property their own. The increase also indicates that buyers are feeling more optimistic about owning property even as prices and interest rates stay somewhat elevated.

On Wednesday, the FOMC released the minutes from their most recent meeting. The main takeaway is that there is a significant split between those who believe that the Fed should continue to ease and those who think that a rate hike may be appropriate in the next few months. This split comes as data continues to support the risk for elevated inflation over a longer period.

If prices continue to rise, the Fed will likely want to consider a rate hike. Of course, raising rates may also hinder the job market, which is showing signs of softness. As has become customary over the past couple of years, the Fed must decide whether to prioritize prices over employment despite their mandate to keep both in check.

On Thursday, unemployment claims data for the past seven days was released. It found that there were 209,000 requests for unemployment benefits over the last week. This compares to an expected 210,000 requests prior to the release and 212,000 claims last week.

Also on Thursday, housing start data was made public. It found that 1.47 million new homes were built compared to an expected 1.44 million. This is important because a lack of housing inventory has largely been responsible for a slowdown in sales and an increase in prices. If more new homes are built, it may increase supply and make existing homes more affordable in the long-term.

Finally, on Friday, the University of Michigan released its revised consumer sentiment report. It found that sentiment was at 44.8 compared to an expected 48.2. This would be the lowest level in the survey’s history, and it would be the third time this year that it has broken a previous record low.

The S&P 500 was up 71 points to close the week at 7,470. This was an increase of 0.97 percent over the past five trading days. For the week, the market made a low of 7,341 on Tuesday and a high of 7,505 on Friday.

The Dow was up 1,044 points this week to finish at 50,579. That represented an increase of more than 2 percent since the open on Monday. On Wednesday, the market made its weekly low of 49,326 before reversing and hitting its weekly high of 50,763 on Friday afternoon.

The Nasdaq was up 188 points to close the week at 26,343. This was an increase of 0.72 percent over the past five trading days. On Tuesday, the index made its weekly low of 25,738 before reversing and hitting its high of 26,453 on Friday afternoon.

In international news, Canada announced on Friday that retail sales were up 0.9 percent while Great Britain stated retail sales there were down 1.3 percent. Canada announced earlier in the week that inflation was up 0.4 percent in April compared to an expected increase of 0.7 percent. Finally, Australia publicized on Wednesday that its economy lost 18,600 jobs this month and that the unemployment rate there ticked up to 4.5 percent.

Next week will be another interesting one as economic data will continue to pour in. It’s worth noting that Monday is the Memorial Day holiday, which means that markets will be closed. However, after that, you can expect the CB Consumer Confidence report to come out Tuesday while the PCE Price Index for April comes out on Thursday. In addition, preliminary GDP data for the first quarter comes out on Thursday.