The third week in July was another interesting one for investors as some data came in stronger than expected. For example, retail sales were flat over the past month compared to an expected drop of .3 percent. Core retail sales were up .4 percent compared to an expected increase of just .1 percent.
Those types of numbers would likely give the Federal Reserve pause to cut rates in the near future. However, it is also important to remember that a slowing labor market is also a reason to cut interest rates. After Tuesday’s retail sales numbers were better than anticipated, Thursday’s unemployment claims report showed that there were more requests for benefits than expected.
Over the past seven days, there were 243,000 claims compared to an expected 229,000. The 243,000 figure was also higher than last week’s 223,000 claims. As it’s unusual to see such volatility in the summer months, the unexpected increase could be a sign that the economy is slowing.
Of course, these weren’t the only data points available to market participants this week. On Monday, the Empire State Manufacturing Index came in a negative 6.6, which was lower than the anticipated negative 5.5. However, the Philly Fed Index came in at 13.4 compared to an expected 2.7 on Thursday.
On Friday, Fed member John Williams spoke and said that long-term trends indicate that the neutral rate is lower than the current rate. In other words, there is evidence to suggest that an interest rate cut in September could be appropriate. At a minimum, his words indicate that there will be sufficient cause for interest rate cuts at some point in the near to intermediate future.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell also seemed to agree with that sentiment during remarks he made on Monday. Powell said that there was confidence that the market was going to return to 2 percent inflation, but he also cautioned that he wasn’t going to signal that a rate cut was coming at any particular time. Therefore, everyone will just have to wait to see what the Fed decides to do between now and the end of the year.
The S&P 500 finished the week down 134 points to close at 5,505. This was a loss of 2.38 percent for the week for a market that has returned just over 21 percent over the last 12 months. The weekly high of 5,663 was made on Monday morning at about 11 a.m. while the weekly low of 5,499 was made on Friday afternoon.
The Dow finished the week up 20 points to close at 40,287, which was a gain of .05 percent for the previous five trading days. The market would make its high of the week on Thursday when it reached 41,365 and made its low of the week on Friday when it dipped to 40,230.
Finally, the Nasdaq plunged 4 percent this week to close at 17,726. It would open the week at 18,591, which was its highest point, before freefalling toward the low. On Friday, the market would close at its lowest point of the previous five trading days.
International markets were also quite busy this week as Canada announced its most recent inflation numbers on Tuesday. The Bank of Canada (BOC) revealed that median inflation was 2.6 percent on an annualized basis compared to an expected 2.7 percent. New Zealand announced inflation rose .4 percent over the last quarter compared to an expected .5 percent while inflation in Great Britain was 2 percent on an annualized basis compared to an expected 1.9 percent.
The European Central Bank (ECB) kept its main refinancing rate at 4.25 percent on Thursday. Finally, on Friday, Great Britain and Canada announced that retail sales had dropped over the past month. Sales lagged by 1.2 percent in Great Britain and by .8 percent in Canada.
The upcoming week is going to start slow but likely finish with a flurry of volatility. In the United States, GDP data is expected to be released on Thursday while the Core PCE Price Index is released on Friday. Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI in the United States and throughout the Eurozone will be released throughout the day on Wednesday.
