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The most recent trading week was another consequential one. In the United States, perhaps the most important news announcement was the release of the most recent FOMC meeting minutes.

The minutes came out on Wednesday and caused some market volatility. One of the key takeaways was that Trump’s tariff proposals were weighing on the Fed and would likely have an impact on both markets and financial policy. Many who have studied the issue say that tariffs will likely increase prices, but there has been some pushback on this narrative from those who say that tariffs didn’t lead to inflation in 2016.

Ultimately, the Fed is likely to keep interest rates where they are for the next several months. It’s possible that they will remain where they are for the rest of 2025 depending on the results of future inflation and other important data releases.

On Thursday, unemployment claims data was made public. Over the last seven days, there were 219,000 requests for benefits, which was slightly more than the projected 215,000 requests. Friday saw the release of the Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI reports. Manufacturing came in at 51.6 percent while the services PMI came in at 49.7 percent.

This indicates that the manufacturing sector is expanding while the services sector is beginning to slow. Although this could be just a blip in the data, it could be an indication that prices may start to come down across the board. Over the past few years, high demand for services has kept inflation high and resulting in stubborn price increases.

Also on Friday, the University of Michigan released its revised consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. Consumer sentiment went down to 64.7 percent compared to the initial reading of 67.8 percent. Inflation is expected to be 4.3 percent a year from now, which was unchanged from the original report released earlier in February. Finally, existing home sales data came out, and during the past month, there were 4.08 million sales.

The S&P 500 fell 104.52 points to close the week at 6,013, which was a loss of 1.71 percent over the last five trading days. On Wednesday afternoon, the market hit its high of the week of 6,146 before quickly reversing. On Friday afternoon, the index fell to 6,012 before reversing to close out the session.

The Dow fell by 1,266 points over the last five trading days to close at 43,428. On Wednesday afternoon, the market hit its high of 44,625 before reversing and losing ground through the close on Friday. The Dow lost 2.84 percent and is now down .63 percent for the month.

Finally, the Nasdaq fell by 428 points this week to finish at 19,524, which was a 2.15 percent drop over the past five trading days. As with the other two major indexes, the Nasdaq made its high of the week on Wednesday and its low of the week on Friday. On Wednesday morning, the market briefly exceeded 20,000 before reversing and finishing near the weekly low of 19,518.

In international news, the Royal Bank of Australia (RBA) dropped the country’s interest rate to 4.1 percent from 4.35. The move was seen as a sure thing ahead of time and resulted in a relatively muted market response. Laster in the week, the country announced that the economy had gained 44,000 jobs and that the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1 percent.

On Tuesday evening, the Bank of Canada (BOC) announced that the country’s inflation rate stood at 2.7 percent on an annual basis. Later that week, Canada announced that its retail sales were up 2.5 percent over the past month, which was much higher than the anticipated 1.5 percent. On Wednesday, Great Britain announced that its inflation rate had increased to 3 percent on an annualized basis.

This week, preliminary GDP data for the previous quarter will be made public while the PCE Price Index for January will be available on Friday morning.

The previous trading week was full of important news that will impact monetary policy as well as market policy for the next several months. On Wednesday, inflation data for the month was released and found that it rose by .4 percent over the past month. On an annualized basis, inflation came in at 3 percent, which was slightly higher than the expected 2.9 percent.

However, some were quick to point out that the uptick in inflation could be seasonal and nothing to panic about. Regardless, the initial reaction from the market was that interest rates would likely stay where they were until at least June. Of course, nothing is guaranteed as the new administration is pushing Fed Chair Jerome Powell to reduce rates regardless of market conditions.

On Thursday, the Price Producers Index (PPI) was released and it revealed that prices rose by .4 percent in the past month. When food and energy prices were removed from the calculation, prices only rose by .3 percent over the past month. Also on Thursday, unemployment claims data was made public, and over the past seven days, 213,000 people requested benefits compared to an expected 217,000.

Friday, retail sales data was released, coming in below market expectations. Overall, sales dropped by .9 percent in January compared to an expected drop of .2 percent. For some, this put the prospect of rate cuts back on the table as falling sales numbers could be signs of weakness elsewhere in the economy. Others said that the drop was caused by the wildfires and unusually cold weather throughout the country.

In other important news, Fed Chair Powell testified in front of members of the House on Tuesday and Wednesday. Although his testimony created some momentary market volatility, most observers believe he didn’t say anything too out of the ordinary. His key message was that the Fed would cut rates if necessary but that there was no rush to act right now.

The S&P 500 had another positive week finishing up 1.14 percent to close at 6,114 on Friday. The market made its low of the week Wednesday morning when it dipped to 6,017 before reversing. It made its high of the week of 6,124 on Friday morning before giving up some ground going into the day’s close.

Like the S&P, the Dow was also positive for the week finishing up .47 percent. This represented a gain of 187 points for the index that closed at 44,546 at the end of trading on Friday. Also like the S&P, the Dow made its low of the week before reversing and closing the week near the high of the last five trading days. The weekly range was 44,133 at the low end while 44,753 was the high.

Finally, the Nasdaq was up 1.75 percent this week to close at 20,026. This was a gain of 344 points for a market that is up over 1,100 points for the month of February. Over the past five trading days, the index made a low of 19,423 on Wednesday and closed at its high of the week.

In international news, New Zealand announced that it expects inflation to drop slightly to 2.06 percent in the next quarter. Great Britain revealed that monthly and quarterly projected gross domestic product (GDP) figures beat expectations. For the month, the GDP grew by .4 percent compared to .1 percent while the quarterly figure is believed to be .1 percent compared to a drop of .1 percent. Finally, Switzerland announced Thursday morning that inflation was down by .1 percent on a monthly basis.

The upcoming week will likely be another significant one although it will likely start on a muted note as the President’s Day holiday is Monday. However, the FOMC meeting minutes will be released Wednesday while the Flash Manufacturing and Flash Services PMI reports are released on Friday. Unemployment claims data will be made public on Thursday.

The first full trading week in February offered several twists that kept market participants glued to both their trading and television screens.
Perhaps the biggest development were tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico were both levied and then suspended for a month. If implemented, there would have been a 25 percent tariff on most goods coming into the United States from Canada or Mexico. There would have been a 10 percent tariff on goods coming in from China. However, those tariffs were delayed by 30 days after those countries made concessions to President Trump.

In addition, there were a number of scheduled news reports that caused some market volatility. On Monday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI was released and came in at 50.9, which was well above the expected 49.3. This indicates that the manufacturing sector is in a period of expansion, and it’s the first time that the indicator has been above 50 since April of 2024.

On Tuesday, the JOLTS report revealed that there were 7.6 million open positions in the United States. This was down from 8.16 million last month and was well below the expected 8.01 million jobs projected before the report’s release.

On Wednesday, the ISM Services PMI was released and came in at 52.9, which was down from 54.1 last month. In addition, the ADP nonfarm payroll report was released and revealed that the economy created 183,000 new jobs, beating the consensus estimate of 148,000 prior to the report’s release.

Unemployment claims data for the past seven days was released on Thursday. In the past week, 219,000 people requested benefits, which represented an increase of 11,000 from the previous week.

Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its own version of the nonfarm payroll report. It claimed that 143,000 jobs were added in the past month compared to an expected 169,000. However, it also revised the December jobs report upward to 307,000.

It was also revealed that the unemployment rate dropped to 4 percent and that average hourly earnings increased .5 percent over the past month. It was expected that the unemployment rate would remain at 4.1 percent and average hourly earnings would increase by .3 percent prior to the release.

Finally, the week closed with the release of consumer sentiment and inflation expectation data from the University of Michigan. Consumer sentiment came in at 67.1 while the inflation rate is expected to be 4.3 percent in 12 months.

The S&P 500 was up 1.21 percent this week to close at 6,025. On Monday morning, the index made its low of 5,929 while it would reach its high of the week of 6,095 on Friday morning. In addition to being the weekly high, it was also the index’s all-time high.

Like the S&P, the Dow was also up this week finishing 303 points higher to close at 44,303. This represented a .69 percent gain over the past five trading days, and the Dow would also make an all-time high this week. On Thursday morning, the market hit 44,927 before reversing into the close of the week.

Finally, the Nasdaq also finished higher this week advancing by 1.19 percent to close at 19,523. This was a gain of 229 points during the previous five trading days. As with the other two major indexes, the Nasdaq made its low of the week on Monday and the high of the week during the final two trading sessions.

In international news, Great Britain decided on Thursday morning to cut its main interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.5 percent. On Friday morning, Canada announced that its unemployment rate dropped to 6.6 percent after its economy added 76,000 jobs.

There will be a lot of news on the schedule this week. Inflation, price change and retail sales data will all be released in the United States, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Tuesday and Wednesday. In addition, China, New Zealand and Switzerland will release inflation data.