Although markets were closed on Friday in observance of the Independence Day holiday, there was plenty of action over the first four days of the week. The main event was the June jobs report that was released on Thursday. The ADP also released its version of the jobs report on Wednesday.
The BLS version released on July 2 found that the economy added a relatively lackluster 57,000 jobs during the previous month. Analysts had predicted an increase of 114,000. It’s worth noting that the May report was revised downward to an increase of 129,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3 percent as expected while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.2 percent.
In addition, the ADP version of the nonfarm payroll figures also came in lower than expected. It found that the economy added 98,000 positions compared to an expected 118,000. The May report was left unchanged.
This will have a significant influence on monetary policy going forward. Already, Fed Chair Warsh has suggested that there will be no rate hikes soon. This statement conflicted with market expectations for at least one rate hike in 2026. The perceived end of hostilities with Iran will likely remove a significant inflationary pressure on the market.
At least, that is the guidance that Warsh has provided as he has indicated inflationary pressures in general have begun to ease over the past four weeks. Gas prices have moderated slightly in the past week, which is likely a welcome relief to motorists who tend to travel more during the summer months.
Several other reports came out this week that created some market volatility. On Tuesday, the CB Consumer Confidence report came in at 91.2. Although it was higher than last month’s reading, it was lower than the 94.4 analysts had predicted prior to its release.
In addition, the JOLTS report came out and found that there were 7.59 million job openings in the United States. This matched May’s figure while coming in higher than analyst expectations of 7.28 million openings prior to the release.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI came out Wednesday at 53.3, which was slightly lower than the expected 53.8. However, it does suggest that the manufacturing sector is expanding, which is generally a net positive for the economy.
Finally, unemployment claims data for the last seven days came out on Thursday morning. Over that period, there were 215,000 requests for benefits compared to an expected 219,000.
The S&P 500 was up more than 2 percent over the past five trading days finishing the week at 7,483. This was a gain of 156 points over the period. The index made a low of 7,357 on Monday morning and a high of 7,537 on Thursday morning.
As with the S&P 500, the Dow finished in the green for the week. It gained more than 1,000 points over the past five trading days to close at 52,900, which is a new all-time high. The Dow made a weekly low of 52,067 on Monday and closed near its weekly high on Thursday.
Finally, the Nasdaq was up 2.64 percent over the last five trading days to finish the week at 25,832. This was a gain of more than 600 points and is flirting with all-time highs. During the past week, it made a low of 25,373 on Monday and a high of 25,233 on Wednesday.
In international news, Canada announced Tuesday that its gross domestic product (GDP) was up 0.5 percent over the past month. On Thursday, Switzerland announced that inflation was flat over the last month.
On Wednesday, the FOMC will release the minutes from the June meeting, which will likely provide more insight into where the Fed sees interest rates going over the next few months.