Market Perspective for May 22, 2020

Equities rallied this week. The S&P 500 Index, Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial Average gained a similar 3.56, 3.40 and 3.29 percent, respectively. The small-cap Russell 2000 increased 7.84 percent.

SPDR Industrial (XLI) climbed 7.30 percent. SPDR Energy (XLE) rebounded 6.74 percent, helped by West Texas Intermediate crude oil’s rally into the low $30s. SPDR Consumer Discretionary (XLY) advanced 5.03 percent as the country began reopening. Several states have opened beaches and parks heading into the Memorial Day holiday.

Economic data was solid. The National Association of Homebuilders’ confidence index climbed to 37 in May, up from 30 in April. Housing starts were at an annualized pace of 891,000 in April. Building permits, a sign of future construction, was much higher than expectations at an annualized 1.074 million.

Initial claims for unemployment continued trending lower, falling to 2.44 million.

Flash PMIs for May showed a rebound in the manufacturing and service sectors. The flash PMI jumped from 26.7 in April to 36.9. If openings continue into June, this number could be back to “normal” fairly quickly.

iShares MSCI EAFE (EFA) rose 3.21 percent this week, while iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) gained 1.11 percent. iShares China Large Cap (FXI) fell 1.32 percent and iShares MSCI Hong Kong (EWH) slid 4.38 percent after CCP-selected politicians pushed through a draft of a national security law in Hong Kong.

The United States and other nations have threatened a response if the law is implemented as written. Earlier in the week, the Senate passed a bill that will allow for delisting of Chinese securities from U.S. markets. China considers financial information a state secret, thus blocking any investigative audits of its companies by the SEC.

The highlight was Wal-Mart (WMT) reporting a 10 percent increase in sales. It indicated online sales climbed 74 percent. Investors largely priced in the good news into share prices; the company slipped 1.15 percent on the week.

Market Perspective for May 18, 2020

Equities jumped higher overnight after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told 60 Minutes that it could do more to boost the markets. When asked by reporter Scott Pelley, “Has the Fed done all it can do?” Powell answered: “There’s a lot more we can do. We’re not out of ammunition by a long shot. There’s really no limit to what we can do with these lending programs that we have.” Also boosting shares were reports of early success in vaccine trials for coronavirus.

Small-cap and value shares benefited most from the positive news. The Russell 2000 Index gained 6.10 percent. Vanguard Value (VTV) climbed 3.89 percent and Vanguard Growth (VUG) added 2.28 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 3.85 percent, the S&P 500 Index 3.15 percent and the Nasdaq 2.44 percent.

SPDR Energy (XLE) advanced 8.17 percent on the day, boosted by an 11 percent increase in West Texas Intermediate crude oil. SPDR Industrials (XLI) rose 6.59 percent and SPDR Financials (XLF) 5.13 percent.

The National Association of Homebuilders reported an uptick in homebuilder optimism in May. Their index slid to 30 in April amid the closed economy, but it rebounded to 37 this month. Tuesday brings housing starts and building permits for April and Thursday brings existing home sales.

Economists expect initial claims for unemployment fell to 2.35 million last week. Flash manufacturing and service PMIs for many economies will be out on Thursday. Investors will be looking for a rebound from April lows.

Finally, the minutes from last month’s Federal Reserve meeting will be released on Wednesday.

The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.80 percent on Monday as “risk-on” trades dominated. The dollar fell nearly 1 percent versus the euro, but it has a small gain versus the yen. iShares MSCI EAFE (EFA) increased 4.04 percent and iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) climbed 3.91 percent.

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 0.74 percent on Monday, the highest close since mid-April. iShares 20+ Year Treasury (TLT) declined 2.20 percent. High yield and corporate bonds rallied as investors priced in the reopening of the U.S. economy. iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) climbed 1.77 percent, Invesco Senior Loan (BKLN) 0.87 percent and Fidelity Corporate Bond (FCOR) 0.30 percent.

 Retail earnings reports will dominate the week. Investors will hear from Home Depot (HD), Lowe’s (LOW), Wal-Mart (WMT), Kohl’s (KSS), Urban Outfitters (URBN), Target (TGT) and TJX Companies (TJX) among.

Chinese companies also report this week. On tap are Weibo (WB), Alibaba (BABA) and Autohome (ATHM).

Other companies reporting are Medtronic (MDT), Nvidia (NVDA), Expedia (EXPE), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Deere (DE), Campbell’s Soup (CPB) and Intuit (INTU).

 

Market Perspective for May 15, 2020

The Nasdaq decreased 1.14 percent this week, the S&P 500 Index 2.22 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 2.62 percent. SPDR Healthcare (XLV) advanced 0.98 percent as biotechnology and pharmaceutical shares extended their rallies. iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) climbed 3.16 percent and SPDR S&P Pharma (XPH) rose 2.46 percent.

The National Federation of Independent Business’ small-business confidence index dipped to 90.9 in April from 96.4 in March. The result was much better than expected, indicating many small businesses are optimistic about the future.

As expected, consumer and producer prices tumbled in April. The headline consumer price index slid 0.8 percent for the month. Core CPI dipped 0.4 percent. Producer prices slumped 1.3 percent.

Initial jobless claims were 2.98 million for the week ending May 9, down slightly from the prior week’s 3.18 million.

Retail sales declined 16.4 percent in April. Sales ex-autos fell 17.2 percent. Non-essential physical retail suffered the largest declines, with clothing store sales down 79 percent. Grocery sales dipped 13 percent. Home supply stores only decreased 3.5 percent. Online sales rose 8.4 percent.

Consumer sentiment showed a surprising increase in May. Analysts expected sentiment would drop from April, but the University of Michigan’s advance survey for May showed consumer confidence rose from 71.8 to 73.7 over the first part of the month.

The U.S. Dollar Index remained strong, gaining 0.5 percent on the week. iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) decreased 2.25 percent and iShares MSCI EAFE (EFA) fell 2.85 percent. The war of words between China and the United States escalated. iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) declined 2.79 percent.

A number of states began opening their economies this week. The initial data shows pent up demand for services. Most companies are opening with social distancing rules, reducing supply. This could generate many stories of “sold out” openings. A booking agency for Carnival cruises said August demand was about double from last year. Shanghai Disneyland sold out at its open and bookings are sold out for future dates. A casino in Oklahoma did a soft opening ahead of its return to normal business. There were hundreds of people lined up. Drive-in theaters are seeing a surge in popularity as well.