Market Perspective for February 22, 2026

Market Perspective for February 22, 2026

It was another consequential week for market participants as a slew of important data points were released. Gross domestic product (GDP) data for the last month, the Core PCE Price Index and a ruling from the Supreme Court regarding tariffs were announced.

On Wednesday, the FOMC released the minutes from their January meeting. The FOMC was split as to where rates would go in the future with some believing that solid labor numbers justified a pause or even increasing rates. However, others feel that a cooler inflationary environment calls for further rate cuts. It’s likely that the Fed will cut rates at least once or twice this year, but the timing is not yet certain.

On Thursday, unemployment claims data was released. Over the past seven days, 206,000 people filed claims for benefits, which was below the projected 223,000 and below last week’s figure of 229,000.

On Friday, the Core Price PCE Index for December was up by 0.4 percent compared to an expected increase of 0.3 percent. It was also higher than the 0.2 percent reading in November. Also on Friday, it was revealed that GDP growth was estimated to be 1.4 percent in the final quarter compared to an expected 2.8 percent. It is also well below the 4.4 percent growth in the third quarter of 2025.

The services and manufacturing PMI reports were also released Friday morning. Manufacturing came in at 51.2 while services came in at 52.3. Although both figures indicate that these sectors are expanding, they came in below expectations and were both lower than the number recorded in January.

The Supreme Court ruled on Friday that President Trump’s tariff plan was unconstitutional. Specifically, a 6-3 majority ruled that the president lacked the authority to impose tariffs by invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

Although it’s likely that at least some tariffs will remain in place citing other laws on the books, the president won’t have the broad power he wants to impose them. The Supreme Court’s ruling didn’t address whether companies and other entities that have paid tariffs would be entitled to refunds.

Markets are expected to show more volatility over the next few days as investors digest the tariff news. However, the S&P 500 initially reacted favorably to the ruling as the index finished up more than 40 points on Friday. For the week, the index was up 69 points to close at 6,909, which was a 1.02 percent gain over the last five trading days. The market made its low of the week on Tuesday morning when it dipped to 6,783 and closed near its weekly high.

The Dow was also up on Friday and for the week. Over the past five trading days, the index gained 165 points to close at 49,265, which was a gain of 0.33 percent. The weekly high occurred on Wednesday when the Dow peaked at 49,852 while the weekly low of 49,207 was reached on Friday morning.

Finally, the Nasdaq finished the week up 1.29 percent thanks to a strong showing on Friday. The index finished Friday’s trading at 25,012, which was an increase of 317 points from the start of Monday. The weekly low of 24,417 was reached on Tuesday morning while the weekly high of 25,060 was hit on Friday afternoon.

Next week should be a relatively quiet one with only a couple of important news items on the schedule. On Friday, the latest PPI data will be made public while President Trump gives the State of the Union address on Tuesday night. Unemployment claims data will be released on Thursday as usual.

Market Perspective for February 15, 2026

Market Perspective for February 15, 2026

It was another consequential week for market participants as some big news was revealed on Wednesday and Friday. The January jobs report and inflation numbers caused a lot of chatter among economists as to what they might mean for monetary policy and the economy.

The week kicked off with delayed retail sales data released on Tuesday morning. During the month of December, core retail sales were flat compared to an expected increase of 0.3 percent. Overall retail sales were also flat compared to an expected increase of 0.4 percent.

On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that the economy grew by 130,000 jobs in January. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3 percent while average hourly earnings grew by 0.4 percent. Analysts believed that the economy would add just 66,000 jobs in January.

On Thursday, unemployment claims data for the last seven days was made public. Over the past week, there were 227,000 requests for benefits compared to an expected 222,000. Last week, there were 232,000 claims made.

Finally, Friday saw the release of the CPI report for January. During that month, overall CPI came in at 0.2 percent while core CPI came in at 0.3 percent. This translates to an inflation rate of 2.4 percent on an annualized basis, the lowest level in about five years. The drop was attributed to lower gas prices as well as a slowdown in apartment rental price increases.

It is also believed that changes or delays to proposed tariffs have alleviated fears of sustained inflation. The consensus is that the Fed will either stand pat or continue to cut rates as it can likely do so without kickstarting an inflationary cycle.

The S&P 500 was down 1.1 percent this week to close at 6,836 at the close of trading Friday. The index made its weekly high on Wednesday morning when it peaked at 6,991 before reversing and nosediving in the second half of the week. On Friday afternoon, it hit its weekly low of 6,821 before reversing to close out the day.

The Dow surpassed 50,000 to begin the week. However, it fell 493 points over the past five trading days to finish Friday at 49,500. This was a loss of 0.97 percent for the index that made its weekly high of 50,430 on Tuesday. It made a low of 49,326 on Friday morning.

Finally, the Nasdaq lost 190 points this week to close Friday’s session at 24,732. This was a drop of 0.76 percent for the index that followed the lead of the other two major markets over the past five days. On Wednesday morning, the Nasdaq made a weekly high of 25,366 and made its weekly low of 24,677 on Friday morning.

In international news, China announced on Tuesday that its inflation rate was up 0.2 percent on an annualized basis in January. On Thursday, Great Britain announced that its gross domestic product (GDP) was up 0.1 percent in January. Finally, on Friday morning, Switzerland announced that inflation dropped by 0.1 percent in January.

The upcoming week will likely be another interesting one even if it gets off to a slow start.
. FOMC meeting minutes will be released on Wednesday while the Core PCE Price Index for January will be released on Friday. The Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI will also be released at the end of the week.

Market Perspective for February 8, 2026

Market Perspective for February 8, 2026

This was another consequential week for market participants as the prices of gold, silver and Bitcoin whipsawed dramatically. The tech sector was hit hard by losses, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new record high. Economic data featured a mixed bag of news that offered little market clarity.

On Monday, some good news came in for the market with the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI. In January, the index was at 52.6, which was higher than the projected 48.5 and higher than last month’s reading of 47.9. On Wednesday, the ISM Services PMI was released and came in at 53.8. This was higher than the expected 53.5 and was also only slightly lower than last month’s reading of 54.4.
However, the ADP nonfarm payroll report revealed that the economy added just 22,000 jobs in December. It was believed prior to the release that the economy had added 46,000 jobs for the month. This figure was also lower than the 37,000 positions created in December. The BLS version of the nonfarm payroll report was supposed to be made public on Friday, but it is now scheduled for next Wednesday.

Thursday saw the release of the JOLTS job reports figure for January as well as the unemployment claims figures for the past seven days. In January, there were 6.54 million openings in the United States, compared to an expected 7.25 million. This was slightly lower than the 6.93 million positions available in December.

The data reflects a growing trend among workers and employers to maintain the status quo. Employees don’t want to leave their current jobs because they fear that they won’t find better opportunities. Meanwhile, employers don’t want the added costs and uncertainty associated with laying off employees. Furthermore, they are generally focused on how to improve productivity as opposed to increasing their head counts.

As far as unemployment claims are concerned, there were 231,000 requests for benefits. This was up from 209,000 a week ago and well above the projected 212,000 claims prior to the release.

On Friday, the University of Michigan released its consumer sentiment and inflation expectations reports. Consumer sentiment came in at 57.3, which was higher than the projected 55. Respondents also said that inflation was going to be at 3.5 percent in 12 months.

The S&P 500 was relatively flat again this week gaining almost 13 points to close at 6,932. For the week, the market made a high of 6,989 on Tuesday before falling to a low of 6,782 on Thursday. The index then reversed on Friday to settle in the middle of the weekly range.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was more volatile this week closing up 2.74 percent to finish at 50,115. On Friday, the index climbed above the 50,000 level for the first time in history. For the week, the index forced traders to endure choppy trading until breaking out on Friday. The low of the week was 48,483 which occurred on Thursday while it closed near the weekly high.

Finally, the Nasdaq was the big loser this week, dropping 1.78 percent to close at 25,075. This represented a drop of over 400 points led by big losses for names such as Amazon, Coinbase and Robin Hood. As with the S&P 500, the Nasdaq opened near its high of 25,760 and made a low of 24,460 on Thursday.

In international news, Australia raised the country’s key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.85 percent. Great Britain kept the nation’s interest rate at 3.75 percent on Thursday morning while the Eurozone kept its base interest rate at 2.15 percent.

Next week will certainly be an interesting one as the BLS nonfarm payroll report is scheduled to be released. Retail sales numbers as well as inflation data come out on Tuesday and Friday. Unemployment claims for the past week will come out on Thursday.