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Inflation data was released on Wednesday and mostly fell in line with analyst expectations. Core CPI came in at 0.2 percent for the month while overall CPI was 0.3 percent on a monthly basis. Inflation was 2.4 percent on an annualized basis, which was the same as last month and in line with projections.
On Thursday, unemployment claims for the last seven days was released. Over that time period, there were 213,000 requests for benefits, which was slightly below last week’s figure of 214,000.

On Friday, a slew of important reports were released including preliminary GDP data, the JOLTS report and the Core PCE Price Index. The preliminary GDP report for the fourth quarter found that the economy grew just 0.7 percent during that period. This was roughly half of the initial estimate of 1.4 percent and well below the 4.3 percent growth in the third quarter.

The JOLTS report revealed that there were 6.95 million jobs available in January. This was just below the project 6.74 million and last month’s figure of 6.54 million.

The Core PCE Price Index was up 0.4 percent in January, which was in line with expectations. However, it’s worth noting that this report also reflects data from before the Iran war began. This is also the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. If it continues to rise, it’s possible that the Fed may pause future rate cuts.

Although Trump has indicated that the war may end shortly, oil prices will likely remain elevated for as long as the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to traffic. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which is the benchmark oil price in the United States, spiked to $116 a barrel early Monday morning. It is hovering between $90 and $95 a barrel as of Friday afternoon.

The S&P 500 was down 26.26 points this week to close at 6,631. This represented a drop of 0.39 percent over the course of the trading week. On Tuesday, the index made a high of 6,833 before reversing course and finishing near its weekly lows.

The Dow lost 350 points to finish the week at 46,558. This was a loss of 0.75 percent for the index. It would peak on Tuesday, hitting 48,211, before reversing and closing near the low of the week.

Finally, the Nasdaq lost 32 points this week to finish Friday at 22,105. This was a loss of 0.15 percent. On Tuesday afternoon, the index peaked at 22,902 prior to flipping and finishing the week sliding in negative territory.

In international news, Great Britain announced early Friday morning that GDP growth was flat in February. Canada announced on Friday that its economy shed almost 84,000 jobs in February compared to an expected gain of about 10,000.

The upcoming week will likely be filled with more important news as the war in Iran rages on. Wednesday will be a particularly important news day as the February PPI will be released while the Fed will make its latest interest rate decision. It’s expected that the Federal Funds rate will remain at 3.75 percent.

The first full trading week in March was volatile. In addition to the February jobs report released on Friday, the military conflict with Iran has weighed on equities and oil prices.

On Monday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.4 compared to an expected 51.7. However, it was slightly lower than last month’s reading of 52.6. Regardless, it shows that manufacturing in the United States is going through an expansion phase.

The ISM Services PMI was released Wednesday and came in at 56.7. This was compared to an expected 53.5 and a January reading of 53.8. As with manufacturing, the services industry is also in a period of expansion that has lasted for several years now.

Also on Wednesday, ADP released its version of the nonfarm payroll report. In February, the economy added 63,000 jobs compared to a projected 50,000 before the release. However, job gains in January were revised downward to just 11,000.

Unemployment claims data was released Thursday and was largely unchanged from the previous week. Over the last seven days, 213,000 requests for benefits were made, which was the same as the previous reading.

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) issued its version of the nonfarm payroll report. In a shocker, it revealed that the economy lost 92,000 jobs in February compared to an expected gain of 58,000. The unemployment rate increased to 4.4 percent while average hourly earnings were up 0.4 percent.

Finally on Friday, retail sales data from January was made public. It was revealed sales were down 0.2 percent that month compared to an expected drop of 0.3 percent. A softer job market and softer retail spending may indicate choppier economic waters going forward.

The conflict with Iran sent West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil up to near $90 a barrel this week. This represents a yearly high and a level not seen since April of 2024. It’s believed that oil prices could surge even higher if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

Equity markets were mostly lower this week starting with the S&P 500. The index was off by 1.41 percent to close at 6,740. This was a drop of 96 points for an index that is now negative for the year. For the week, the market reached a high of 6,898 on Monday before reversing and hitting its weekly low of 6,712 on Tuesday.

The Dow closed the week off 2.27 percent from the open on Monday. This represented a drop of 1,100 points over the last five trading days for the market that closed Friday’s trading at 47,501. It made a high of 49,041 on Monday before losing ground the rest of the week. The low of 47,055 occurred on Friday.

Finally, the Nasdaq was down 0.55 percent this week to close at 24,643. This was a loss of 137 points over the last five trading days, and in addition to war in Iran, questions about the long-term value of AI also weighed on the tech-heavy index. For the week, the Nasdaq made a low of 24,319 on Monday and a high of 25,176 on Wednesday.

In international news, Australia announced on Tuesday evening that GDP growth over the last quarter was 0.8 percent compared to an expected 0.7 percent increase. On Wednesday, Switzerland announced that inflation increased by 0.6 percent in February compared to an expected increase of 0.5 percent.

The upcoming week will feature a number of important data points. Inflation data will be released on Wednesday while the Core PCE Price Index for February comes out on Friday. Preliminary GDP data for the previous quarter will also be released on Friday. In addition, developments in Iran will likely create volatility in the stock, oil and metals markets.

The final trading week in February featured a number of important events. The first major event of the week was the State of the Union address given by President Trump on Tuesday night.

Although it featured a lot of political posturing, the president did suggest the creation of government-sponsored 401(k) plans. Those plans would allow all Americans to contribute to their retirement whether they were employed by a company that offered such a plan or not. The annual match would be up to $1,000 if the proposal became law. However, it’s important to note that this is just speculation for now and that there would likely be a long road toward its enactment.

On Thursday, the unemployment claims data for the week came out. Over the past seven days, there were 212,000 requests for benefits, which was lower than the projected 217,000 requests for benefits over that period. However, it was slightly higher than the 208,000 claims made the week prior.

On Friday, delayed PPI data from January was released, and it was revealed that prices rose faster than expected that month. For that time period, overall PPI was up by 0.5 percent compared to an expected increase of 0.3 percent. Core PPI was up 0.8 percent compared to a projected increase of 0.3 percent.

An increase in prices may result in changes to the future of monetary policy. While some believe that the Fed could opt to cut interest rates to 2 percent, inflationary pressure will likely cause the Fed to study the issue further before taking action. It’s also worth noting that some Fed members are worried about inflation remaining closer to 3 percent than 2 percent, which is considered the optimum rate for the long-term.

The S&P 500 was down 0.38 percent this week to close at 6,878. This was a drop of 26 points for the index that is down 1.35 over the past month. However, it is still up over 17 percent from this time last year. For the week, the S&P 500 made a high of 6,946 on Wednesday while it made its low of the week of 6,822 on Monday morning.

The Dow was down 1.15 percent this week to close at 48,977 at the end of the day on Friday. This was a drop of 571 points that was fueled by a loss of just over 1 percent on Friday alone. For the week, the index made a high of 49,504 at the open on Monday and a low of 48,762 on Friday.

Typically, the indexes move in the same direction over the course of a day or a week. However, the Nasdaq closed higher this week bucking the trend set by the other two major indexes. It finished 0.51 percent higher to close at 24,960 at the end of trading on Friday. This was an increase of 127 points for the tech-heavy market featuring names such as Nvidia, Microsoft and Amazon.

In international news, Australia announced Tuesday night that its CPI figure went up by 0.4 percent over the past month. This equates to an annual inflation rate of 3.8 percent. On Friday morning, Canada announced that its gross domestic product (GDP) was up 0.2 percent over the past month. This beat projections of 0.1 percent growth following a flat reading last month.

The upcoming week is going to be another interesting one for investors. There will likely be more fallout from the Supreme Court’s plan to end Trump’s tariffs as well as more handwringing about how artificial intelligence (AI) will impact the market. As it’s the first week of March, the jobs report should be released on Friday with the ADP releasing its version of the report on Wednesday. The ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released on Monday, the ISM Services PMI on Wednesday and unemployment claims on Thursday as regularly scheduled.