Market Perspective for July 24, 2017

The Nasdaq climbed to another new all-time high on Monday as technology and financials outperformed, while the broader market closed slightly lower.

This will be a big earnings and data week. On Monday, manufacturing and services flash PMIs for July both indicated  faster expansion, and existing home sales for June came in slightly lower than expected.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey will be released on Tuesday, followed by new home sales and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday. No policy changes are expected, but the Fed will likely discuss balance sheet reductions.  Durable goods and capital expenditures for June, and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey will be out later in the week. Second-quarter GDP data will be released on Friday. Economists forecast 2.7 percent growth. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDP Now Model predicts 2.5 percent.

Several Dow Jones Industrial Average components will be reporting this week, as well as some important energy, defense, biotech and telecom sector firms. iShares U.S. Telecommunications (IYZ), iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense (ITA), iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) and SPDR Energy (XLE) will all be impacted.

Alphabet (GOOGL) reported earnings on Monday and the firm beat on revenue and profits, but traders initially sent the stock down in after-hours trading.  Lower-than-expected ad-click traffic and a severe fine imposed by the EU for search engine practices may have offset earnings beats.

AT&T (T) is expected to report $0.74 per-share in earnings on Tuesday. Analysts forecast $3.09 per share at Amgen (AMGN), a top holding in many biotechnology funds. 3M (MMM), McDonald’s (MCD), United Technologies (UTX), Eli Lilly (LLY), Texas Instruments (TXN), DuPont (DD), Caterpillar (CAT), General Motors (GM) and Biogen (BIIB) will also report on Tuesday.

Energy and healthcare will dominate earnings on Wednesday. Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) are projected to roughly double their earnings from last year. Merck (MRK), Barclays (BCS), Credit Suisse (CS), American Airlines (AAL) and AbbVie (ABBV) are also scheduled to report on Wednesday.

Thursday will be another vital day for blue chips. Amazon (AMZN), Proctor & Gamble (PG), Comcast (CMCSA), Anheuser-Busch Inbev (BUD), Verizon (VZ), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A), Intel (INTC), Mastercard (MA), Altria (MO), British American Tobacco (BAT), Total SA (TOT), Celgene (CELG), Starbucks (SBUX), Dow Chemical (DOW), Baidu (BIDU), Bristol-Myers (BMY), Raytheon (RTN), ConocoPhilips (COP) and UPS (UPS) will all report.

Facebook (FB), Coca-Cola (KO), Boeing (BA), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Gilead Sciences (GILD), PayPal (PYPL), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Northrop Grumman (NOC) and General Dynamics (GD) will report earnings on Friday.

Market Perspective for July 21, 2017

Several indexes hit new all-time highs this week, led by a 1.19-percent Nasdaq gain. Earnings were largely positive for stocks, and investors focused on growth and guidance as well. Netflix (NFLX) missed earnings, but more than doubled estimates for new subscriptions and Microsoft (MSFT) beat estimates by 38 percent. SPDR Technology (XLK) gained 1.07 percent on the week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, dipped 0.27 percent following disappointing General Electric (GE) earnings.

Initial claims for unemployment fell below estimates to 233,000 last week. Housing starts and building permits increased more than expected in June, and May figures were revised higher. iShares U.S. Home Construction (ITB) hit a new 52-week high.

Amazon (AMZN) announced the sale of Sears’ Kenmore appliances this week, pushing shares of Lowe’s (LOW) and Home Depot (HD) down 3 and 4 percent on the week. This comes a month after Amazon announced it would buy Whole Foods (WFM), initiating double-digit losses for several supermarket stocks. SPDR Consumer Discretionary (XLY) finished the week with a gain of 1.04 percent nonetheless.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) earned $2.46 per share, 8 cents ahead of estimates. Shares rallied to a new all-time high following the news. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) also exceeded estimates and raised guidance for the year. SPDR Healthcare (XLV) gained 1.06 percent this week and hit a new all-time high. Biotechnology and pharmaceutical shares also resumed the breakout that began in mid-June. Several major biotech firms will report next week. iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) climbed 2.68 percent.

Earlier in the week, Lockheed Martin (LMT) and iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense (ITA) both hit new all-time highs following Lockheed’s earnings report.

Energy remains the weak spot in the stock market, with crude oil struggling to hold the $47 level. Crude failed at that price at the start of July. The mining sectors grew 21.6 percent in the first quarter according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The 10-year Treasury yield declined to 2.2 percent this week, lifting rate- sensitive sectors. SPDR Utilities (XLU) returned 2.64 percent. SPDR Consumer Staples (XLP) increased 0.66 percent. The U.S. Dollar Index fell below 94 as the euro rallied.

ETF & Mutual Fund Watchlist for July 19, 2017

The Nasdaq and SPDR Technology (XLK) both climbed to new all-time highs on Wednesday. Shares of Amazon (AMZN) moved back above $1000 per- share and Netflix (NFLX) jumped after reporting earnings. AMZN, NFLX and Facebook (FB) all traded at new highs. Microsoft (MSFT) will report earnings on Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 Index and Russell 2000 have also hit new all-time highs in the past week.

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Industrials and materials hit new 52-week highs. Financials and healthcare are within striking distance of new records.

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There will be two key earnings reports this week in the industrial sector. General Electric (GE) will report earnings on Friday. Lockheed Martin (LMT) beat earnings and raised guidance on Tuesday, pushing the stock and the defense subsector ETF to new 52-week highs.

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Although IHF briefly dipped following ACA roadblocks, news of the failure, it was trading at a new all-time high on Wednesday. Several large-cap names such as Celgene (CELG), Gilead (GILD), Amgen (AMGN) and Abbvie (ABBV) will report earnings next week.

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Long-term bond yields came down over the past week, with the 10-year Treasury yield sliding below 2.3 percent. The 10-year yield has remained in a downtrend over the past eight months.

Short-term rates have continued to climb. The 2-year Treasury yield recently crossed 1.40 percent. The dip in yields lifted Fidelity Corporate Bond (FCOR) and iShares High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) which hit a new 52-week high.

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Oil prices have rebounded over the past week, nearing $47 a barrel on Wednesday. A large draw in inventory over the past two weeks has lifted prices.

Broad energy funds such as SPDR Energy (XLE) have yet to break out of their downtrend. First Trust ISE Revere Natural Gas (FCG) and SPDR Energy Services (XES) have broken their downtrends, but don’t have a clear uptrend in place. Oil services giant Schlumberger (SLB) will report earnings on Friday.

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Solar energy has benefited from the technology rally this year. Guggenheim Solar (TAN) broke out to a 52-week high this week. China’s government increased incentives for solar installation this year as part of the effort to increase economic growth. Nearly half of total demand could come from China this year.

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U.S. Bancorp (USB) beat earnings on Wednesday. Later this week, SunTrust Banks (STI), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Citizens Financial (CFG), Regions Financial (RF) and Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) will deliver results.

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Housing starts and building permits were higher than expected in June. May’s figures were also revised higher. Homebuilders hit a new 52-week high this past week.

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The U.S. dollar stayed in a downtrend last week. It is now approaching its long-term support range. The euro is threatening to break overhead resistance, with FXE having failed multiple times around $112.5.

Emerging-market currencies are nearing 2-year highs.

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