Market Perspective for August 22, 2016

The U.S. Federal Reserve will host its annual Jackson Hole economic symposium in Wyoming this week, highlighted by Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s remarks scheduled for Friday.  This year’s conference theme is titled “Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future.” The Jackson Hole symposium has historically revealed a number of key monetary policies.  Former Fed Chairs, Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan have both used past symposiums to signal major policy shifts.

Yellen may signal a course change regarding interest rates at this meeting, as her predecessors have done before. Currently, investors are only pricing in a 12 percent chance of a September rate hike, with December odds at 50 percent. The 10-year treasury bond yield has hovered in an ever-tightening range between 1.60 and 1.50 percent, but hawkish statements in Jackson Hole could push it higher.

Flash PMIs for various nations will be out this week. New homes sales for July will be released on Tuesday, followed by existing home sales on Wednesday. Durable goods orders and core capital goods orders for July are due out on Thursday. The latest GDP estimate for the prior quarter will be out on Friday. Economists expect a growth rate revision of 1.2 percent to 1.1 percent.

The most recent University of Michigan Consumer Confidence figures and the Advance Goods Trade Balance will also be released on Friday. Economists expect a $63 billion trade deficit. Currently, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDP Now Model predicts GDP growth will exceed 3.5 percent in the third quarter.

Though 95 percent of the S&P 500 have reported, the retail sector remains in the spotlight. Big box consumer electronics giant Best Buy (BBY) will report on Tuesday. The company is expected to post year-over-year declines in earnings and revenues as it continues to face pressure from online retailers. Fashion retailer Express, Inc. (EXPR) will report on Wednesday, while Dollar General (DG) and Dollar Tree (DLTR) are scheduled to report Thursday. While DG marginally missed estimates last quarter, analysts expect better results due to increased same-store sales. Analysts believe DLTR will benefit from its acquisition of Family Dollar, forecasting positive earnings and revenue growth. Tiffany (TIF) is expected to post a slight increase in earnings and revenue over last quarter on Thursday as well. In addition to retail data, technology stalwart Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) will also report this week.

Crude oil prices topped out at $49 last week. After bottoming at $39 a barrel on August 2, West Texas Intermediate Crude advanced 25 percent over 10 of the next 13 trading days. Sentiment shifted again on Monday as oil slid to $47. SPDR Energy (XLE) also dipped over 1 percent in Monday trading.

Market Perspective for August 19, 2016

The late-summer slow season is upon us as traders and investors vacation in the run-up to Labor Day. Indexes hit new all-time highs during the week, though performance was largely flat following the release of the Fed’s July meeting minutes. Strong earnings reports from select retailers and surging energy prices supported the markets despite mixed economic data.

Although some policymakers advocated for an imminent interest rate hike, the Federal Reserve committee agreed once again to delay, citing a need for further data. On Tuesday, New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley endorsed a stronger economy in the second half of the year. Atlanta Federal Reserve president Dennis Lockhart echoed those sentiments, stating his confidence in an accelerating economic trend that could warrant a 2016 rate hike.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose more than 10 percent this week in response to another weekly oil inventory drawdown and bullish traders continued squeezing oil shorts out of the market. The rally boosted shares of oil and gas companies such as Exxon Mobile (XOM), Chevron (CVX) and ConocoPhillips (COP), and the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) gained 3 percent. With oil once again approaching $50 per barrel, there was less default pressure on loans in the energy space, benefiting the high-yield market.

A weaker U.S. dollar strengthened oil prices and boosted commodities. The 10-year U.S. treasury yield increased slightly, providing a slight headwind for dividend funds without overweight energy exposure. Rate-sensitive utilities and real estate struggled against rising rates, while banking shares moved higher.

Home Depot (HD) and Wal-Mart (WMT) both delivered strong earnings this week. Clothing retailer American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) also beat analysts’ expectations. These reports overshadowed weaker news from Lowe’s (LOW) and Target (TGT). Cisco (CSCO) also disappointed investors and announced it would lay off 8 percent of its global workforce as part of a restructuring effort.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was unchanged as lower gasoline prices moderated inflation. U.S. industrial production increased 0.7 percent in July, well ahead of expectations. Housing starts unexpectedly jumped to a five-month high. The Philly Fed survey came in higher than consensus estimates, offsetting the weaker-than-expected Empire State survey. U.S. Capacity Utilization was slightly higher than estimates. Thursday’s lower-than-expected weekly unemployment claims figures reinforced the strong labor market conditions. Reports from Asia indicate the Bank of Japan (BoJ) was likely to engage in further monetary easing in the near future, following a substantial decrease in Japanese trade data.

 

Fund Spotlight: Vanguard Global Minimum Volatility Fund (VMVFX)

When considering mutual fund investments, investors often overlook the tactical advantages of currency risk-hedging and defensive strategies. In our increasingly global economy, traditional income growth and preservation plans may not be enough to achieve portfolio goals. Global exposure should provide diversification without posing excessive currency-related risk. The Vanguard Global Minimum Volatility Fund (VMVFX) offers its investors a global portfolio of stocks while minimizing foreign currency exposure through currency hedging.
From the end of June 2014 through July 31, 2016, VMVFX gained 21 percent versus the U.S. Dollar Index’s 20 percent. Over the same period, Vanguard Global Equity (VHGEX), which does not hedge currency exposure, gained only 2 percent. The outperformance in VMVFX over this period was largely a function of its currency exposure.
Conversely, the U.S. Dollar Index has fallen 3 percent since March 30, 2015, while VMVFX has gained 8 percent and VHGEX has gained 6 percent. If VMVFX utilized currency hedging as its sole strategy, it would have underperformed VHGEX. Instead, its minimum volatility approach generated market-beating results that more than made up for the currency drag.
Europe, Japan and China are currently in monetary easing cycles. Post-2008 domestic regulations designed to protect the financial system have also limited money market funds as investors move out of privately issued short-term debt paper and into short-term U.S. Treasury paper to circumvent the new rules. The concurrent quantitative easing policies of central bankers are squeezing privately issued prime funds and fueling government bonds. VMVFX is designed to perform with relative stability as international currencies fluctuate.
Strategy
The Vanguard Global Minimum Volatility Fund aims to achieve broad global stock exposure while simultaneously mitigating the price volatility of global stock market indexes. The fund utilizes structured mathematical algorithms to determine its selections for portfolio allocation. The calculations must meet reduced volatility parameters and correlate the prospective stocks to ensure minimization of overexposure to any particular industrial sectors, regions or relationships between companies that could affect volatility. The formula then applies appropriate Forex futures hedging strategies to eliminate foreign currency risk.
Initial criteria include stocks from the FTSE Global All Cap Index that exhibit lower-than-average volatility. The selection process then continues to eliminate those stocks to within a 5 percent deviation from the parent index and calculates through the other parameters, with regard to position size, industrial sector, etc. As a result, roughly half the portfolio is U.S. domestic securities while the remainder comprises a wide range of foreign stocks that meet the low-volatility criteria.
VMVFX is categorized as a “world stock fund” and has $1.6 billion AUM as of the end of the second quarter of 2016. Its portfolio has 392 different holdings with a brisk 57.3 percent turnover rate and is relatively new, having been founded in December 2013. The current dividend yield is 1.65 percent, and dividends and capital gains distributions are paid annually. The largest sectors that VMVFX holds positions in are, unsurprisingly, consumer defensive, industrials, and healthcare, all of which are historically lower beta. Overall portfolio composition is 38.7 percent medium/small cap, 22.3 percent small cap, 19.1 percent medium cap, 13 percent medium/large cap, and 6.9 percent large cap. Emerging markets make up 8.5 percent of holdings.
The fund’s top 10 holdings reflect its strategy of global diversity. Among its foreign holdings are CLP Holdings Ltd., a utilities company traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange; BCE Inc. (BCE), a Canadian telecom company; and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM-ADR). Household U.S. corporates round out the top 10, with Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Church & Dwight (CHD), data processing company Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY), Clorox (NYSE: CLX), reinsurer RenaissanceRe Holdings (RNR), Spectrum Brands (SPB) and Kaiser Aluminum (KALU).
Performance
In its relatively short two-and-a-half-year lifespan, VMVFX has an annual average return of 12.03 percent. When compared with the FTSE Global All Cap Index during the same period, VMVFX has demonstrated less than 65 percent of comparable volatility, meeting its mandated strategy goals. At the same time, the strong U.S. dollar and application of Forex hedging protocols, a technique not widely deployed by other World Stock fund rivals, have boosted performance of VMVFX.
The current dividend yield is 1.65 percent.
Management & Fees
The team members managing VMVFX all have a heavy quantitative analytic background – not a surprise given the platform’s reliance on quantitative screens and algorithms. Lead manager Michael Roach has been with Vanguard for two decades and has been the lead manager for VMVFX since its inception. Binbin Guo, PhD, is the head of equity research and portfolio strategies for Vanguard’s Quantitative Equity Group. Anatoly Shtekhman is the junior manager, having just been promoted to a management position this year. Guo and Shtekhman joined VMVFX in February 2016, replacing James Stetler and James Troye.
Popular for its low fees, VMVFX charges a fee of 0.27 percent with a minimum investment of $3,000. Admiral shares (VMNVX) are also available for a slightly lower 0.21 percent fee and a $50,000 minimum investment. Both options are far below the 1.15 percent median average for other World Stock funds.
Conclusion
VMVFX offers global stock exposure while aiming for lower portfolio volatility.
The fund may be especially suitable for those in the five-year holding period range that roughly mirrors the length of U.S. dollar bull and bear markets. Investors who shift international exposure based on U.S. dollar cycles will get the most mileage out of this fund. Currently, we have ranked the fund as a Strong Buy with a ranking of 98.