Market Perspective for August 30, 2021

Financial markets opened the week mixed following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole speech on Friday. The Nasdaq gained 0.90 percent and the S&P 500 Index 0.43 percent, while the Dow Jones Industrial Index and Russell 2000 Index slid 0.16 percent and 0.51 percent, respectively.

SPDR Real Estate (XLRE), SPDR Technology (XLK) and SPDR Consumer Discretionary (XLC) led with increases of 1.22 percent, 1.09 percent and 0.73 percent. Investors stuck with quality stocks on Monday. iShares Edge MSCI Minimum Volatility USA (USMV) gained 0.36 percent and Vanguard Dividend Appreciation (VIG) 0.19 percent.

This week is relatively light on data, but Friday will bring the August employment report. Economists forecast a 5.2 percent unemployment rate, 720,000 net new jobs and a 0.3-percent increase in wages.

The manufacturing and service PMIs will also be released. The flash numbers from last week show a slight slowing of the pace of growth in the U.S. due to the fading of stimulus as well as concerns about the new delta variant. High frequency data from areas such as travel and restaurant visits indicates consumers are pulling back in tandem with the frequency of media mentions of the virus. Markets will focus more on reports for China, Australia and Europe, where stricter lockdown measures are in force.

Crude oil edged up to $69 a barrel on Monday, but SPDR Energy (XLE) slid 1.18 percent. Natural gas dipped 1.89 percent and First Trust ISE Revere Natural Gas (FCG) fell 1.35 percent.

The 10-year treasury yield hit 1.29 percent. It remains in a consolidation pattern between 1.40 percent and 1.10 percent. Bonds were up across the board, led by a 0.27-percent rise in iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury (TLT).

Market Perspective for August 28, 2021

Stocks rallied on Friday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered an uneventful Jackson Hole speech. Powell delivered a speech that barely differed from FOMC minutes or any of his previous press conferences. Bullish traders used the news to squeeze meme stocks higher and sent the Russell 2000 Index up 2.85 percent on the day. For the week, the Russell 2000 Index gained 5.05 percent, the Nasdaq 2.82 percent, the S&P 500 Index 1.52 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 0.95 percent.

Although Powell mentioned a taper could be warranted later this year, other Fed officials were more strident in their tone. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard reiterated that a taper should start immediately and conclude by the end of the first quarter 2022. Cleveland Fed President Lorraine Mester said the taper should start now and end by mid-2022. They were joined by three other regional Fed Presidents, Esther Geroge, Eric Rosengren and Robert Kaplan, who have called for a taper to start soon. Kaplan was perhaps strongest in his comments, saying he worried the Fed’s quantitative easing policies are driving home affordability to its lowest level in history. New home sales below $200,000 accounted for less than 1 percent of all home sales last month. Notably, three of these presidents will become voting members of the FOMC next year, replacing three of the more dovish members.

SPDR Energy (XLE) bounced back from two months of weakness. It gained 7.45 percent on the week. West Texas Intermediate crude oil jumped from $62 a barrel to nearly $69 per barrel. Natural gas jumped to a new 52-week high after gaining more than 10 percent on the last two days of the week. First Trust ISE Revere Natural Gas (FCG) spiked 13.12 percent.

SPDR Financials (XLF) was another winner thanks to rising interest rates. It climbed 3.48 percent for the week. SPDR S&P Regional Bank (KRE) advanced 3.90 percent.

The flash manufacturing and services PMI slipped in August as stimulus effects faded. Final numbers will be out next week.

Existing home sales and new home sales both came in stronger than forecast in July, at an annualized pace of 5.99 million and 708,000, respectively.

Durable goods orders dipped 0.1 percent in July, better than the consensus estimate of a 0.5 percent drop.

Consumer sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan survey dipped again August, in line with expectations, as inflation reduced consumer optimism.

The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.88 percent this week, with half the loss coming on Friday after Fed Chair Powell did not deviate from prior comments about a possible taper. iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) rallied 4.20 percent for the week. iShares MSCI EAFE (EFA) rose 1.57 percent.

Bond yields fell on Friday following Powell’s speech, but gained for the week. The 10-year treasury yield rose to 1.31 percent. High yield bonds performed well, with iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) climbing 0.79 percent.

Market Perspective for August 23, 2021

Equities opened the week on the upswing as investors shrugged off the possibility of a Federal Reserve taper in the near future. The Russell 2000 Index gained 1.87 percent, strongest among the major indexes, while the NASDAQ gained 1.55 percent. Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.61 percent and the S&P 500 returned 0.85 percent.

SPDR Energy (XLE) climbed 3.75 percent, boosted by a 5.28 percent rise in crude oil. This came despite an announcement that the U.S. will sell 20 million barrels of its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. SPDR Consumer Discretionary (XLY) returned 1.30 percent and SPDR Technology (XLK) 1.28 percent.

The flash manufacturing and services PMIs slowed in August, likely driven by widening lockdown policies overseas, particularly in China.

Existing home sales hit an annualized pace of 5.99 million in July, better than expected.

On Wednesday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its second estimate of second-quarter GDP growth. Economists predict a 0.1 percentage-point increase to 6.6 percent growth. Friday brings the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index.

The U.S. Dollar Index dipped 0.56 percent on Monday as the taper talk faded. In the longer-term, less central bank intervention is generally viewed as bullish for a currency. Six months into the Federal Reserve’s prior tapering in 2014, a major U.S. dollar bull market broke out. iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) rebounded 1.49 percent on Monday, while iShares MSCI EAFE added 0.93 percent.

Interest rates dipped slightly on Monday, while credit risk fell. High yield bonds outperformed, with iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) climbing 0.33 percent. Invesco Senior Loan (BKLN) returned 0.18 percent.