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The final full trading week in June was another consequential one as several key events took place. On Thursday, the Core PCE Price Index and final estimate for the first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) were released. More tensions between the United States and Iran had an influence on both oil and gold prices.

The Core PCE Price Index came in at 0.3 percent, which was in line with analyst expectations. According to the IMF, this result provides validation that the Fed was right to remain steady on interest rates. The IMF also said that the United States is in position to bring inflation back to the Fed’s 2 percent target by the end of 2027.

During the first quarter of 2026, it’s now believed that the economy grew by 2.1 percent as opposed to 1.6 percent as first reported. This is another reason why interest rates are unlikely to change soon as growth tends to counteract increases in prices. There are some who believe that the Fed will be hesitant to raise rates before the midterm elections to avoid any implication that politics were involved in the decision.

Although a memorandum of understanding (MOU) was signed by Iran and the United States, there are still bursts of hostilities between the two sides. Late this week, Iran targeted a ship in the Strait of Hormuz with a drone despite its obligation under the MOU to allow unfettered access to the waterway.

Gold prices rebounded from a low of around $3,950 an ounce on Wednesday afternoon to close the week at $4,087. The price of gold has fallen significantly in recent weeks in large part because of easing tension in the Middle East. Often, gold is a hedge against geopolitical tensions and their impact on fiat currencies.

Oil also took a nosedive this week with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) falling to a low of $73.81 per barrel. The price of WTI began the month of June at just under $100 per barrel as a projected increase in production and supply of oil reduces demand and the price people are willing to pay. Of course, it’s unlikely that drivers will see any immediate relief at the gas pump.

The S&P 500 dropped 2 percent this week to close at 7,354 at the end of trading Friday. This is a drop of 151 points over the course of the last five trading days. For the week, the index made a high of 7,527 at the open on Monday and a low of 7,318 on Friday.

The Dow was up by 0.12 percent this week to close at 51,876 at the end of the day on Friday. On Tuesday, the market made its low of the week at 51,403 before reversing and making a high of 52,610 on Thursday.

The Nasdaq was down 4.34 percent this week to close at 25,292. The index experienced outsized losses compared to the other two major indexes because of concerns about chip production and the future of AI. This week, the market made a high of 26,503 on Monday and a low of 25,327 on Thursday.

In international news, Canada announced on Monday that inflation was up 1 percent in May. It also announced that inflation was up 2 percent on an annualized basis. On Tuesday, Australia announced that inflation had gone down by 0.7 percent compared to an expected decrease of 0.4 percent. This translates to an inflation rate of 4 percent on an annualized basis for the nation. On Thursday, Japan announced its inflation rate was 1.6 percent on a yearly basis.

The upcoming week will likely be another interesting one as the jobs report for June is expected to be released on Thursday. The JOLTS report will also come out next week while Fed Chair Warsh is expected to give testimony before the July 4 holiday. The market will be closed on Friday in observance of Independence Day.

The third week in June was a truncated due to the Juneteenth holiday on Friday. However, it doesn’t mean that there weren’t any important events that took place over the first four days of the week. Subjectively, the two biggest stories were the June rate decision from the Fed and the tentative end of the war in Iran.

On Wednesday afternoon, the Fed decided to keep interest rates steady at 3.75 percent. However, it is possible that the Fed will decide to hike rates at least once this year if inflation continues to remain sticky at levels above 3 percent. Earlier in June, it was revealed that inflation was 4.2 percent on an annualized basis in May.

Fed Chair Warsh said that he didn’t think that the Fed had to choose between inflation and employment when making monetary policy. Traditionally, the central bank has had a dual mandate to ensure full employment and price stability. It appears that inflation will be the priority even if it leads to softness in employment numbers.

On Monday, a memorandum of understanding was reached between the United States and Iran. That sent oil prices plummeting to below $80 a barrel as it appears that the Strait of Hormuz will be open to all traffic soon. Of course, this is not an official end to the war, and President Trump has said that he will be open to further hostilities.

Also on Wednesday, retail sale data for May came in and revealed that sales were up 0.9 percent compared to an expected 0.5 percent. Core retail sales were up 0.8 percent compared to an expected increase of 0.6 percent.

On Thursday, unemployment claims remained steady coming in at 226,000 for the last seven days. This was compared to 230,000 a week ago. The actual figure was roughly in line with what analysts expected prior to the release.

The S&P 500 was up over 1 percent over the four trading days this week to close at 7,500. This is a gain of more than 100 points for an index that is up about 1 percent over the past four weeks. This week, it made a high of 7,573 on Monday and a low of 7,408 on Wednesday.

The Dow was up more than 750 points to close at 51,564 on Thursday afternoon. As with the S&P 500, the Dow has rewarded investors with positive returns over the past month and the past year. It is up almost 4 percent since mid-May and over 22 percent since this time in 2025. For the week, it made a high of 52,236 on Wednesday and a low of 51,500 later that same day.

Finally, the Nasdaq was up over 3 percent and closed trading on Thursday at 26,517. This was a gain of more than 800 points.

In international news, Australia announced early Tuesday morning that it would keep its key interest rate at 4.35 percent. Japan also announced early Tuesday that it would increase the country’s main rate to about 1 percent. On Thursday, Switzerland opted to keep its key rate at 0 percent while Great Britain kept its rate unchanged at 3.75 percent.

The upcoming week will likely be another interesting one as markets continue to deal with the aftermath of the end of the Iran war. In addition, the Core PCE Price Index for May will be released on Thursday along with unemployment claim data. International traders will likely look forward to inflation data coming out of Australia, Canada and Japan.

This past week saw several important data points made public. Wednesday saw the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The Price Producer Index (PPI) for May came out on Thursday. The University of Michigan also released its consumer sentiment and inflation expectation reports on Friday.

The CPI report shows that inflation is again picking up steam, largely due to the war in Iran. Core CPI was up 0.2 percent in May while overall CPI was up 0.5 percent. This translates to an annual rate of 2.9 percent Core CPI and 4.2 percent overall. Each figure was in line with analyst expectations prior to the news being made public.

Although inflation has gone up in recent months, there is still some cause for optimism. Core CPI was expected to be 0.3 percent for May, which means that the 0.2 percent figure is slightly softer than the market was bracing for. Furthermore, there are signs that the war with Iran will be coming to an end shortly, which could cause prices to ease.

However, even if the war were to end today, it could take months for supply chain issues to resolve themselves. Namely, the Strait of Hormuz would need to remain open for an extended period to resolve the oil supply bottleneck currently taking place.

Overall, it’s unlikely that the report will change the Fed’s monetary policy direction. It’s expected that the Fed will vote to keep interest rates unchanged as opposed to opting for a rate hike at the June 17 meeting. The main interest rate is currently in a range between 3.75 percent and 4 percent.

Core PPI came in a 0.4 percent on Thursday, which was slightly below the 0.5 percent analysts expected prior to the report’s release. Overall, PPI was up 1.1 percent compared to an expected increase of 0.7 percent. Energy prices were cited as the main driver of the overall price increase in May.

Also on Thursday, the unemployment claims data for the last seven days came out. There were 229,000 requests for benefits, which was up slightly from 225,000 the week prior.

On Friday, preliminary consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan showed that consumers were relatively upbeat compared to expectations. The report came in at 48.9 compared to an expected 46.1. However, last month’s data was downgraded to 44.8. Respondents expected inflation to be at 4.6 percent in 12 months.

The S&P 500 was down slightly this week finishing roughly 10 points lower to close Friday’s trading at 7,431. This was a loss of 0.14 percent over the past five trading days. For the week, the market made a high of 7,464 on Monday and a low of 7,257 on Tuesday.

The Dow was also relatively flat for the week, but managed to finish in the green. It closed up 195 points to close Friday’s trading day at 51,202. That was an increase of 0.38 percent over the past five days. The market made a low of 50,0003 on Wednesday and a high of 51,332 on Friday.

Finally, the Nasdaq was down 0.6 percent this week to finish at 25,888 at the close of business on Friday. This was a loss of 157 points for the tech-heavy market. For the week, the index made a high of 26,123 on Monday and a low of 25,131 on Thursday.

In international news, Canada announced on Wednesday that it was keeping its overnight rate at 2.25 percent. On Thursday, the Eurozone decided to increase its main financing rate from 2.15 percent to 2.4 percent. On Friday morning, Great Britain announced that its gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.1 percent in May.

Next week will surely be another consequential one as the Fed has its rate policy meeting on Wednesday. Japan and Australia will announce their June rate decisions on Monday and Tuesday morning. Retail sales data will also be released on Wednesday while any news regarding the Iran war will likely cause market volatility.