Market Perspective for January 21, 2022

Investors moved out of growth stocks as next Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting looms. The Nasdaq led the major indexes lower with a loss of 7.55 percent, while the more value-oriented Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 4.58 percent. SPDR Consumer Discretionary (XLY) slid 8.10 percent and SPDR Technology (XLK) 6.81 percent. SPDR Utilities (XLU) slipped 0.76 percent and SPDR Consumer Staples (XLP) 1.22 percent.

Although this week met with broad selling, a year-to-date look at sectors shows what’s been driving the market. SPDR Energy has gained 12.52 percent as of Friday’s close, the only S&P 500 sector in the green. The next four sectors are SPDR Consumer Staples (XLP), Financials (XLF), Utilities (XLU) and Industrials (XLI) with declines of 1.49 percent, 2.28 percent, 3.83 percent and 4.36 percent, respectively.

The major indexes are now all in technically oversold territory. The good news is that this has typically marked a low in prior corrections. Investors should be very cautious about panic selling from these levels, particularly with the Federal Reserve meeting next week. Economists don’t expect a policy change at the Fed meeting, but they do expect the bank will signal the taper will end in March.

One of the more important assets to follow in the market is crude oil. Crude has enjoyed a near uninterrupted run from its “omicron panic” low of $62 per barrel. It closed at $85.55 on Friday, though it made a new 52-week intraday high. The Federal Reserve no doubt hopes recent weakness will spill over into the energy market. A drop in crude prices will lower interest rates along with inflation expectations, alleviating pressure on the stock market. It will also give the Fed leeway on policy implementation.

Geopolitical tensions are also putting upward pressure on oil and gas prices, as the rhetoric surrounding Russia’s intentions toward Ukraine intensifies.

Higher-quality and lower-volatility stocks outperformed this week. SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) declined 5.72 percent, but Vanguard Dividend Appreciation (VIG) dipped 4.78 percent and iShares MSCI Minimum Volatility USA (USMV) 3.52 percent.

Bond funds held up well this week. Floating-rate funds will benefit from rate hikes and as a result, Invesco Senior Loan (BKLN) slid just 0.11 percent. Vanguard Short-Term Bond (BSV) has a slightly longer duration and it fell 0.26 percent. iShares High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) decreased 0.86 percent. Although higher interest rates would be kryptonite for long-duration bond funds such as iShares 20+ Year Treasury (TLT), that fund declined only 0.45 percent as it benefited from safe-haven buying. Short-term rates have been rising faster than long-term rates as well, a sign the bond market anticipated market volatility. The Fed influences short-term rates via its Fed funds rate, but it has very little impact on longer-term bonds.

The 10-year Treasury yield topped out at 1.87 percent mid-week before settling at 1.75 percent.

Earnings season has been solid thus far. Analysts predicted 21.40-percent growth in fourth quarter S&P 500 earnings. Accounting for the reports thus far, the blended earnings rate has risen to 21.80 percent. Companies that missed have been punished by investors, most prominently Netflix (NFLX). The stock slid 21.79 percent on Friday after it missed subscriber growth expectations.

 

Market Perspective for January 10, 2022

Volatility continued on Monday with the equities swinging down in the morning and back up in the afternoon. The Nasdaq fell below its December low before finishing the day up 0.05 percent. The S&P 500 Index fell 0.14 percent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average 0.45 percent and the Russell 2000 Index 0.40 percent.

SPDR Healthcare (XLV) climbed 1.02 percent on Monday. Technology shares rebounded after the 10-year yield eased back from 1.80 percent down to 1.78 percent. After leading the market lower for most of the day, SPDR Technology (XLK) finished up 0.02 percent. The next best performer was SPDR Energy (XLE), down 0.31 percent.

The volatility seen on Monday could continue the rest of this week. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell will have his confirmation hearing with the Senate. In November, he sparked some market selling with his hawkish statements. His nomination could spark more pointed criticism from Senators who are hearing from constituents about high inflation.

In addition to Powell, three other Federal Reserve bank presidents speak publicly this week. Two have made hawkish comments in the past couple of months. Cleveland Fed President Mester has been the most hawkish. She’s called for a March rate hike and for asset sales starting in July.

On Wednesday, the consumer price index will be released. Economists project a 0.4 percent rise in December and 0.5 percent for core CPI. Headline CPI will likely hit 7.0 percent for the year.

The producer price index will be released on Thursday. Analysts expect 0.4 percent growth in December.

On Friday, retail sales for December will be released. Analysts project sales fell 0.1 percent, with sales ex-autos up 0.3 percent.

Friday will also be the unofficial kickoff of earnings season with megabanks J.P Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citibank (C) delivering results. Economists project S&P 500 earnings rose 21.7 percent in the last quarter, driven by energy, materials and industrial firms.

Crude oil will play a crucial role in inflation expectations over the coming weeks. West Texas Intermediate crude fell to $78.23 per barrel on Monday, down from a high above $80 last week. Crude has reversed all its losses D by the Fed’s hawkish policy shift and the omicron variant outbreak last year, but it remains below its recent high above $85 in October.