The Investor Guide to Fidelity Funds for July 2023 is AVAILABLE NOW! July Data Files Are Posted Below Market Perspective: Stocks Continue Rebound from 2022 Losses Equities extended their rally in […]
The first full week of July started off slowly as Americans celebrated the Fourth of July holiday. However, the week also featured the release of the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes as well as a slew of jobs and earnings data on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
The week would start with the release of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI and Manufacturing Prices surveys. The ISM Manufacturing PMI survey came in at 46 percent, which was lower than the 47.2 percent analysts expected. The ISM Manufacturing Prices survey came in at 41.8 percent, which was also lower than analysts expected. Both figures suggest that the manufacturing sector is expected to contract in the coming months.
On Wednesday afternoon, the FOMC minutes from June’s meeting were released. The minutes revealed that almost all voting members thought that there would be a need for at least one or two more hikes in the second half of the year. It was noted that strong jobs numbers supported the idea that the economy would continue to stay hot, which would lead to higher wage growth.
As wages increase, individuals feel better about spending more for goods and services, therefore, the threat of inflation above 2 percent is an issue that the Fed is eager to address. It was also revealed that the FOMC members preferred to call their choice not to raise rates in June a skip as opposed to a true pause.
On Thursday morning, the ADP nonfarm employment change figure for June was released. It showed that the economy added 497,000 jobs during the period, which was well above the forecast of 226,000 jobs. This added further ammunition for those who want to increase rates in July or at some point in the coming months. The federal funds rate currently stands at 5 percent to 5.25 percent.
Also on Thursday, unemployment claims were shown to have risen to 248,000 from 236,000 a week ago. The ISM Services PMI survey came in at 53.6 percent, which was higher than 51.3 percent projected by economists prior to the survey’s release. Finally, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) found that there were 9.82 million available positions, which was a decrease from 10.32 million last month.
On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that the unemployment rate had ticked down to 3.6 percent from 3.7 percent last month. Finally, average monthly earnings increased by .4 percent compared to analysts expectations of a .3 percent increase.
The Dow 30 lost just over 550 points this week, which was a loss of 1.61 percent over the past five trading days. The market stayed relatively flat on Monday and Tuesday before dipping slightly on Wednesday. It then took a sharp nosedive on Thursday and Friday where it closed at the weekly low of 33,734.
The S&P 500 was down a little over 29 points this week to finish at 4,398. It spent the first half of the week in a tight trading range before breaking out on Thursday and hitting the weekly low of 4,385. Bulls would take over for the first half of the day Friday before giving up ground during the afternoon.
Finally, the Nasdaq was down .5 percent this week to finish at 13,660. As with the S&P 500, the Nasdaq was flat for most of the week before trending sharply lower on Thursday. The market would bottom out at 13,571 before trending slightly higher on Friday.
This week, the calendar features only a handful of news releases, but they may determine what the Fed does prior to its meeting in late July. On Wednesday morning, monthly and yearly CPI numbers will be released while monthly core CPI figures will also be released. Core CPI tracks changes in prices without accounting for food and energy costs, which tend to be vulnerable to high levels of volatility.
In addition, Thursday sees the release of monthly PPI and core PPI figures as well as unemployment claims. On Friday, the preliminary consumer sentiment and inflation expectations will be released by the University of Michigan.
The final full week of June provided investors with a slew of information to help them discern where the market may be heading over the coming weeks and months. On Tuesday, it was revealed that there was a .6 percent increase in monthly core durable goods orders compared to an estimate of flat growth since May’s report was released. Furthermore, core durable goods orders over that same period were up 1.7 percent, which was significantly higher than the .8 percent decline forecast by market experts.
The Conference Board also issued its consumer confidence index on Tuesday morning, and the final figure was 109.7, which was an increase from 102.5 in May. Finally, investors found out on Tuesday that new home sales had increased to 763,000 compared to 680,000 last month. This may suggest that home prices will remain steady or continue to climb during the summer, which could be both good and bad for the economy. On the plus side, additional home sales are likely a sign of economic strength, but that strength may force the Fed to increase interest rates again.
On Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated during a panel event that multiple hikes may be on the table this year. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet on July 26, and even if a hike doesn’t occur, Powell said that rates haven’t been restrictive for long enough to think about rate cuts.
Thursday morning saw the release of gross domestic product (GDP) data, which was better than expected. During the second quarter, it was believed that the economy grew by 1.4 percent, but the Thursday report showed that growth was actually 2 percent during that period. The GDP price index report showed an annualized increase of 4.1 percent during the second quarter. Ultimately, this means that the cost of goods and services that are included when calculating GDP figures increased.
Unemployment data for the past week was also revealed on Thursday, and over the past seven days, 239,000 filed for benefits, which was lower than the 265,000 filed last week. It was also lower than the estimate of 264,000 claims.
Two more news reports were released on Friday that did little to clear a muddled economic picture. The PCE core price index found that prices increased .3 percent over the past month, which was unchanged from the month prior and slightly lower than analyst expectations. Revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment found that consumers were slightly more hopeful about the future as the figure for June was 64.4 instead of the original figure of 63.9. However, revised consumer inflation expectations found that Americans expected inflation to be at 3.3 percent within a year as opposed to the 3.1 percent figure that was released earlier in June.
Equity markets largely trended higher throughout the week as the Dow 30 finished up 1.9 percent to finish at 34,407. The Dow started the week at 33,791 before hitting its weekly low of 33,668 on Monday morning. From there, it was a steady climb to the high as positive economic news had investors clamoring to put their money into companies represented on the index.
The Nasdaq was up a little over 2 percent for the week after ending Friday’s session at 13,787. As with the Dow, the Nasdaq hit its weekly low on Monday before generally grinding higher the rest of the week.
Finally, the S&P 500 was up 2.22 percent to finish the week at 4,450. As with the other major American indices, it would find support for the week on Monday afternoon at 4,329.
This upcoming week is expected to be backloaded due to the Fourth of July holiday. On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes will be released while job openings and wage data will be released on Thursday and Friday.
Last week was relatively slow, with only four trading days thanks to the Juneteenth holiday. Furthermore, there were only a couple of major news announcements after the market reopened on Tuesday. The first major news event occurred on Thursday with the reveal of unemployment claims numbers from the last seven days.
It showed that there were 264,000 claims made over the period compared to an estimated 261,000. This was the second consecutive week in which 264,000 unemployment claims were made.
On Friday, S&P Global released its Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) numbers for both the manufacturing and service sectors. The manufacturing PMI number was 46.3 percent, which was down from 48.4 percent last month and was below the 48.6 percent estimate. The services PMI was 54.1 percent compared to 54.9 percent last month and was slightly higher than the 53.9 percent expected by analysts. These numbers suggest that there is a slowdown occurring in the manufacturing sector while the service economy still has room to grow.
On Wednesday and Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell offered prepared remarks to members of the Senate. The main takeaways from his testimony were that the service sector was running too hot and was likely contributing to inflation, which is still too high for his liking.
Therefore, it is expected that there will be additional interest rate hikes in the coming months. According to Powell, there will not be a pivot toward lower interest rates soon. He also said that there was a chance that the economy would achieve a soft landing. In other words, prices could be reined in through rate hikes without triggering a recession.
Some have suggested that the Fed may be forced to consider further hikes because of actions taken by other banks around the world. The Bank of England (BOE) raised rates to 5 percent after recent CPI data in that country found that inflation had increased to 8.7 percent. The Swiss central bank also increased its interest rate to 1.75 percent last week. It’s expected that the European Union (EU) will continue to raise rates in response to recent data that inflation is still a key issue there.
The only outlier in the quest to contain inflation is Japan, which has a base rate of -.10 percent. This has caused the yen to depreciate significantly against the dollar as well as other currencies. At the end of trading on Friday, a single dollar could be traded for 144 yen. Although the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has indicated that it may intervene to stop the currency from sliding much further, it is also against raising rates. This is because it is a popular tool for those who want to engage in carry trades.
The S&P 500 was down 1.9 percent last week to finish at 4,348 on Friday afternoon. It reached its highest point of the week on Tuesday afternoon when it hit 4,397 and would slowly lose ground on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
Last week was also unkind to those who were invested in companies listed on the Dow 30. The index finished down 2.19 percent to finish at 33,727. As with the S&P 500, the Dow hit its high of the week on Tuesday before slowly falling on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
Finally, the NASDAQ would also have a losing week as it finished 2.08 percent lower. The market would hit its high of the week on Tuesday at 13,679 and end the day on Friday at 13,492.
This upcoming week sees the release of consumer confidence, GDP and consumer price figures. On Wednesday, Jerome Powell will be speaking about the state of the economy and may offer clues about his next moves. On Friday, revised consumer inflation expectation data will also be released, which could have an impact on what the Fed does during its July meeting.
The June Issue of the ETF Investor Guide is AVAILABLE NOW! Links to the June Data Files have been posted below. Market Perspective: Economic Data Remains Solid and Inflation Falls The […]
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