Market Perspective for April 8, 2024

The past week was dealt a surprise with the release of the March jobs report on Friday. This week also featured comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed members. Those statements provided some key insight into what market participants can expect regarding interest rate hikes. In addition, the JOLTS report as well as the ISM Services and ISM Manufacturing reports were released.

The JOLTS report showed that there were 8.76 million jobs available in March. This was in line with expectations and a tad higher than the 8.75 million reported last month. The ISM Services PMI came in at 51.4 percent, which was lower than the expected 52.8 percent and lower than the 52.6 percent reported last month. Conversely, the ISM Manufacturing report came in above expectations at 50.3 percent.

Analysts had expected that figure to be 48.5 percent, and April’s report came in higher than the 47.8 percent reported last month. On Thursday, unemployment claims data showed that 221,000 requests for benefits were made, which was higher than the predicted 213,000.

In addition to the BLS nonfarm payroll (NFP) report on Friday, the ADP NFP report was issued on Wednesday. It found that 184,000 jobs were added to the economy in March, which was higher than the expected 148,000.

The BLS report showed that 303,000 jobs were added to the economy in March compared to an expected 212,000. This was compared to 270,000 jobs added last month and 353,000 created in January.

This month’s reading may convince some members of the Fed to continue delaying interest rate hikes to 2025 altogether. It’s also worth noting that other reports released Friday morning showed that the unemployment rate dropped to 3.8 percent while average monthly earnings rose by .3 percent.

During prepared remarks on Wednesday, Jerome Powell said that it will take time to digest recent data and that the central bank would move carefully. He reiterated that no cuts would be made until there was confidence that the market was headed toward 2 percent inflation. He also said that the strength of the economy in the face of a restrictive policy gave more time to simply wait before making a decision.

Member Mester also commented on Thursday saying that while interest rate cuts are still on the table this year, inflation is unlikely to cool as much or as quickly as it did last year.

The S&P closed down 1 percent this week to finish at 5,204. It would make its high of the week on Monday morning at 5,261 while making its low of the week on Thursday at 5,156. The index is up about 2 percent for the past 30 days.

Despite gaining 307 points on Friday, the Dow was down 806 points during the past week, which is a drop of 2 percent over the last five days. On Monday, the market opened at the high of the week starting at 39,709 before falling to its low of the week of 38,619 on Thursday.

Finally, the Nasdaq followed the same pattern the Dow did having a strong close to the week despite losing ground over the last five days. On Friday, the Nasdaq gained 199 points to pare its weekly loss to 226 points and close at 16,248. As with the other major indices, the Nasdaq made its high on Monday at 16,475 while making a low of 16,088 on Thursday.

In international news, the Swiss central bank reported that inflation was flat on a monthly basis compared to an expected increase of .3 percent. On Friday, Canada announced that its economy had lost 2,200 jobs and saw its unemployment rate increase to 6.1 percent.

This upcoming week features monthly and yearly inflation reports being released on Wednesday. Also on Wednesday, the FOMC will release its most recent meeting minutes. On Thursday, monthly Price Producer Index (PPI) will be released while Friday sees the release of the preliminary inflation and consumer sentiment figures from the University of Michigan.

Market Perspective for March 31, 2024

Market Perspective for March 31, 2024

The final trading week in March was truncated due to markets being closed for the Good Friday holiday . However, there were multiple news events released throughout the week with a few important pieces of information released on Friday morning.

On Monday, new home sales figures were released, and in the month of February, there were 662,000 such sales. This was lower than the expected 675,000 and lower than the January total of 664,000. A reduction in new home sales might indicate tightness in the housing markets, which may impact home prices as well as interest rates on new mortgages. All of these variables can have a impact on inflation as well as the overall health of the economy.

Multiple news reports came out on Tuesday with the CB Consumer Confidence report being the most important to traders. It came in at 104.7, which was lower than the expected 106.9 and lower than the 104.8 figure from February.

Core durable orders were up .5 percent while durable orders overall increased 1.4 percent on a monthly basis. Each figure came in higher than expected and represented a rebound from the previous month in which core durable orders were down .4 percent and durable orders overall were down 6.2 percent.

On Thursday, monthly pending home sales data was released, and it found that there was a 1.6 percent increase during February. This was much higher than the drop of 4.7 percent in January and was also higher than the expected gain of 1.4 percent prior to the news release. In addition, unemployment claims data was released Thursday morning, with 210,000 requests for benefits over the past seven days.

Final gross domestic product (GDP) figures for the final quarter of 2023 were made public on Thursday morning. For the final three months of 2023, the economy expanded by 3.4 percent compared to an expected 3.2 percent, which likely continues to bolster the idea that the Fed will be able to achieve a soft economic landing despite keeping interest rates elevated.

Finally, the revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectation figures were made available on Thursday morning. Consumer sentiment was at 79.4 percent compared to an initial 76.5 percent while inflation expectations dropped from 3 percent to 2.9 percent.

On Friday, the Core PCE Index came in at .3 percent on a monthly basis, which was what analysts expected prior to the release. It was also lower than the .5 percent figure reported in February. Later on Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that he was pleased that the report came in as expected. However, he cautioned that there was no rush to cut rates and that he wanted to see more data indicating that inflation was getting closer to 2 percent.

The S&P 500 was up 13.53 points to close at 5,254 for the week. It would make a weekly low of 5,204 on Tuesday before reversing and making a weekly high of 5,263 late on Friday before easing back to the closing price.

The Dow closed slightly lower this week losing 16.08 points to finish at 39,807. Like the S&P, this index made its weekly low on Tuesday of 39,292 before rebounding and making a high of 39,855 late on Friday.

Finally, the Nasdaq also finished slightly lower this week falling 18.07 points to close at 16,379. On Wednesday, the market made its weekly low of 16,298 while the weekly high was put in place on Tuesday when it hit 16,461.

This week will see the release of the nonfarm payroll (NFP) report for March on Friday. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report will be issued on Tuesday. The ADP version of the NFP report will be released on Wednesday. Jerome Powell is also expected to give a speech on Wednesday, which the markets will follow closely.

Market Perspective for March 24, 2024

Market Perspective for March 24, 2024

On Wednesday the Federal Reserve announced its March rate decision. As expected, the Fed kept interest rates steady in a range between 5.25 percent and 5.5 percent.  Of course, the rate announcement itself wasn’t what the market was eager to hear. Instead, it wanted to learn from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and hear what he had to say about the future of interest rate cuts. According to Powell, the Fed is still planning on cutting rates three times in 2024, which would see the prime rate reduced by 75 basis points over the next 8 months.

However, what likely stood out to most market participants was what he had to say about economic reports from the previous two months. Essentially, he downplayed them during his press conference and indicated that there was confidence that inflation rates would head back to 2 percent in a timely manner.

Of course, the Fed announcement wasn’t the only important news. On Thursday, unemployment benefit claim figures were released and revealed that 210,000 requests were made for benefits in the past seven days. This was slightly lower than the projected 212,000.

In addition, Flash Services PMI and Flash Manufacturing PMI data was made available. The Flash Services PMI came in at 51.7 percent compared to a projected 52 percent while the Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.5 percent compared to a projected 51.8 percent. These figures suggest that both the services and manufacturing sectors are growing albeit slower than expected.

Finally, it was revealed that 4.38 million existing homes were sold throughout the country in February. This was compared to an expected 3.95 million and was significantly higher than last month’s reading.

The S&P 500 was up 1.33 percent this week to close at 5,234. On Tuesday, the market made its low of the week at 5,136 before shooting up to a high of 5,255 on Thursday afternoon. For the month, the S&P is up 2.58 percent and is up 10.36 percent year-to-date.

The Nasdaq finished higher this week up 1.27 percent to close at 16,428. The Nasdaq would trade mostly sideways prior to Wednesday’s news announcement before shooting up to a weekly high of 16,344 by Thursday’s open. The weekly low was 15,972, which occurred on Tuesday morning. For the year, the Nasdaq has increased 11.26 percent

The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.71 percent during the past five trading days to finish at 39,475. On Tuesday, the market made its low of the week at 38,787 while it would make a high of 39,858 on Thursday. The index has returned 4.67 percent in 2024.

There were several announcements made overseas that could have an impact on American financial policy going forward. Late Monday, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced that it would increase its key interest rate to .1 percent from negative .1 percent. Also on Monday, Australia’s central bank announced that it would keep its key interest rate at 4.35 percent.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) announced on Tuesday that inflation came in lower than expected on both an annualized and monthly basis. Switzerland’s central bank on Thursday cut the country’s interest rate from 1.75 percent to 1.5 percent, which may portend the beginning of a rate cut cycle throughout the globe.

This upcoming trading week will be truncated by the Good Friday holiday. The CB Consumer Confidence report will be released Tuesday. On Wednesday night, FOMC member Waller will be speaking. Thursday sees the release of monthly pending home sales figures. The revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report will also be issued on Thursday along with unemployment claims and final GDP numbers for the fourth quarter of 2023.