Market Perspective for September 28, 2025

Market Perspective for September 28, 2025

A bevy of new information impacted the market this week as investors seek more clarity about the future of the economy. When the Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, there was speculation that more cuts may be coming. However, the data released this past week suggests that the consumer remains resilient even as the labor market weakens.

On Wednesday, it was revealed that there were 800,000 new home sales over the past month. This was higher than the expected 650,000 sales and also higher than the 664,000 new sales from July. The increase in new homes being sold may be attributed to lower mortgage interest rates that have trended from 7 percent to closer to 6 percent in recent weeks. Existing home sales were also robust with 4 million occurring over the past month compared to an expected 3.96 million.

On Thursday, the final gross domestic product (GDP) reading for the second quarter was made public. Over those three months, the economy grew by 3.8 percent compared to an initial estimate of 3.3 percent.

On Friday, the PCE Price Index came in at .2 percent for the month, which was in line with expectations. What may be more important than the rise in prices was the accompanying rise in personal spending over the past month. During that time, spending increased by .6 percent while incomes only rose .4 percent.

The Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI came out on Tuesday. The manufacturing PMI came in at 52 while the services PMI came in at 53.9. These figures suggest a growing demand for both tangible goods and services, which may result in a hotter-than-expected economy going forward.

Jerome Powell also spoke this week and suggested that the Fed would tread lightly on future interest rate cuts. He said that the potential for inflation caused by tariffs was still a concern that the Fed took seriously. The statement could be interpreted as a warning to not take more cuts this year for granted.

The S&P 500 had a rare losing week falling 11 points to close at 6,643 at the end of trading Friday. On Monday afternoon, the market made a high of 6,697 before reversing and trending lower for the rest of the week. On Thursday, the market hit a low of 6,577 before reversing and finishing in the middle of the week’s range.

Unlike the S&P, the Dow was up this week having gained 92 points this week, which was an increase of .2 percent for the last five trading days. On Tuesday morning, the market made its high of the week at 46,684 before reversing and hitting a low of 45,835 on Thursday. A rally on Friday allowed the index to make up what it lost during the middle of the week and finish in the green.

The Nasdaq joined the S&P in the red this week falling 104 points to close at 24,503. On Tuesday, the index hit a weekly high of 24,772 before reversing and plummeting to 24,242 on Thursday.

In international news, Australia announced Tuesday that inflation was 3 percent on an annualized basis, which was higher than the expected 2.9 percent. On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) opted to keep the country’s key interest rate at 0 percent. On Friday, Canada announced that the nation’s GDP grew by .2 percent over the past month compared to an expected uptick of .1 percent.

The coming week will have nonfarm payroll reports for September released. The ADP version will be released on Wednesday morning while the BLS version is due out on Friday. On Tuesday, the JOLTS report comes out as well as the CB Confidence report. Finally, the ISM Manufacturing PMI comes out on Tuesday while the ISM Services PMI comes out on Friday.

Market Perspective for September 21, 2025

Market Perspective for September 21, 2025

Amid the backdrop of a weakening employment landscape, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. It was the first cut this year, but it is not expected to be the last with two or three more cuts possible by the end of 2025. According to the Fed, the shaky job market is the top priority even though it acknowledged that inflation was still stubbornly high.

The PCE Index came in at close to 3 percent in August, which was about 1 percent higher than the Fed’s target. However, as it has a dual mandate to maintain both price and employment stability, members felt as if there was no choice but to ease now. Currently, the Fed Funds Rate is in a range between 4 percent and 4.25 percent, which is still the highest among major economies.

The decision to lower rates was not the only important news that came out this week. On Tuesday, retail sales figures were released, and both core and overall retail sales figures beat expectations. Core retail sales were up 0.7 percent this month compared to an expected increase of 0.4 percent. Meanwhile, overall retail sales were up 0.6 percent compared to an expected increase of 0.2 percent.

On Thursday, unemployment claims data for the week came in and revealed that 231,000 people requested benefits over the last seven days. Analysts thought that 241,000 claims had been filed over the last week. However, this figure was still down by more than 30,000 compared to the previous week’s report.

The S&P 500 continued its rally that began in April as it was up another 55 points this week. At the close of trading Friday, the index stood at 6,664, which was a gain of .84 percent for the week. On Wednesday, the market made its weekly low of 6,584 before reversing and closing at the high of the week.

As with the S&P, the Dow also made gains this week. The market closed up 484 points to finish at 46,315, which was a gain of 1.06 percent over the last five days. On Tuesday, the market made its weekly low of 45,680 before reversing and also closing at the high of the week.

Finally, the Nasdaq closed up 1.87 percent for the week finishing at 24,626. This represented a gain of 451 points over the last five trading days. On Wednesday afternoon, the index made its weekly low of 24,075 just minutes before the Fed decision came out.

In international news, several other central banks made interest rate decisions including the Bank of Canada (BOC), the Bank of England (BOE) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ). The BOC opted to trim the country’s key rate by 25 basis points from 3 percent to 2.75 percent. Meanwhile, the BOE opted to keep the nation’s interest rate steady at 4 percent. Finally, the BOJ opted to also keep the status quo and kept rates steady at 0.5 percent.

On Tuesday night, New Zealand announced that its gross domestic product dropped 0.9 percent over the past quarter. Australia noted that its economy lost 5,400 jobs over the past month compared to an expected gain of 21,200. The data implies that a global economic slowdown may be on the horizon.

As expected, gold is continuing its bull run that began almost a year ago. It is currently sitting at about $3,700 per ounce, which is easily an all-time high. Silver and other metals have also been on a bull run recently, which may make them attractive to those who are looking to diversify their portfolios.

The upcoming week will certainly be another interesting one.. On Tuesday, the Flash Manufacturing and Flash Services PMI reports come out while Jerome Powell will deliver a speech in Rhode Island. The final GDP numbers for the last three months will come out on Thursday while the Core PCE Price Index for August comes out on Friday.

Market Perspective for September 14, 2025

Market Perspective for September 14, 2025

The past week was another interesting one as a number of important news releases impacted markets. The two most important releases were the Price Producers Index (PPI) on Wednesday and the CPI report on Thursday.

On Wednesday, the PPI showed a decline in wholesale prices over the past month. In August, prices declined by 0.1 percent for both overall and core PPI. This was compared to an expected increase of 0.3 percent for both and an increase of 0.7 percent for both in July.

It’s now likely that the Fed will cut by at least 25 basis points next week while some believe that there is a chance of a cut of up to 50 basis points. The Fed rate is currently in a range between 4.25 percent and 4.5 percent.

Inflation figures for August were mostly in line with expectations. On an annual basis, CPI was 2.9 percent while monthly core CPI came in at .3 percent. The only deviation from the expected came when overall CPI saw an increase of .4 percent in August compared to an expected increase of .3 percent.

These figures also largely confirmed what the Fed likely anticipated long before the release came out. This was that inflation was holding steady and that the top priority was shoring up the job market.

The markets got quite a shock this week when it was announced that the economy had added 910,000 fewer jobs than what were recorded in the past year. Economists said that the news indicates greater weakness in the job market than believed and that it could signal that a recession is more likely to occur.

A jump in unemployment claims this week may also signal that the tide is starting to shift. On Thursday, it was announced that there were 263,000 requests for benefits compared to an expected 235,000. Last week, 236,000 people filed claims for unemployment benefits.

On Friday, the University of Michigan found that consumer sentiment had softened as their report came in at 55.4 compared to an expected 58.2. It was also found that respondents believed that inflation would be at 4.8 percent a year from now, which was unchanged from July.

The S&P 500 was up 1.4 percent this week to close at 6,584. This represented a gain of 91 points for an index that is at both yearly and all-time highs. For the week, the index made a low of 6,485 on Monday and a high of 6,598 on Friday before easing back.

The Dow was up 1.14 percent this week to close at 45,834. This was a gain of 515 points for another index that is making a run at all-time highs. As with the S&P 500, the Dow made its weekly low on Monday, trended higher the rest of the week and eased back to close Friday’s trading. The weekly low was 45,365 while the weekly high was 46,113.

Finally, the Nasdaq was up 1.52 percent this week to close at 22,141. This was a gain of 331 points for the tech-focused index that is up 26 percent in the past year and is also at all-time highs. The index followed the same pattern as the other two major markets starting the week off slow before gathering momentum through Friday. On Tuesday, the index hit its weekly low of 21,786 and hit the high of 22,171 on Friday afternoon.

The Fed finally will announce its rate decision on Wednesday afternoon. Retail sales data will also be released on Tuesday as well as the weekly unemployment claims report on Thursday. Central banks in Canada, Great Britain and Japan are all scheduled to announce interest rate decisions of their own next week as well.