Market Perspective for August 8, 2020

Positive economic news lifted equities this week. The Russell 2000 Index gained 5.80 percent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average 3.82 percent, the Nasdaq 2.46 percent and the S&P 500 Index 2.45 percent.

SPDR Industrial (XLI) advanced 4.75 percent, while SPDR Financial (XLF) added 3.29 percent and SPDR Energy (XLE) 3.16 percent.

Manufacturing PMIs rose around the world in July. The U.S., China and Germany all had PMIs signaling expansion. The ISM Service PMI climbed to 58.1 percent, the highest reading since early 2019.

Initial jobless claims were lower than forecasted. Economists expected 1.40 million new claims, but there were only 1.19 million. Continuing claims almost fell by 1 million, to 16.1 million.

The economy created 1.76 million new jobs in July, beating the 1.68 million estimate. The unemployment rate slid to 10.2 percent. Average hourly earnings gained 0.2 percent, far ahead of a forecasted 0.5-percent decline. The two employment reports show hiring picked up again at the end of July.

Crude oil held steady this week and closed with a $41 handle. Natural gas climbed more than 20 percent and cleared $2 per mmBTU. First Trust ISE Revere Natural Gas (FCG) climbed 8.33 percent on the week.

The U.S. government moved forward with banning Chinese tech companies suspected of spying on American citizens. The Presidential Working Group on Financial Markets also recommended the SEC begin cracking down on companies skirting U.S. audit rules. The Chinese government declared financial data a state secret and does not allow U.S. regulator access. Companies have until January 1, 2022 to comply or face delisting. Shares of many Chinese companies fell between 2 and 5 percent on Friday.

Technology companies kept producing strong earnings reports. Etsy (ETSY) earned 75 cents per share, smashing estimates of 39 cents. Revenue rose 137 percent. Square (SQ) earned 18 cents versus a predicted 5 cent loss. Shares of Etsy and Square rose 14.13 percent and13.38 percent, respectively.

 

Market Perspective for August 4, 2020

Equities started off the week on a bullish footing after manufacturing PMIs showed the U.S., Germany and Chinese economies all rebounding. The S&P 500 Index gained 0.90 percent and briefly traded above 3300 for the first time since February.

The ISM Manufacturing index climbed to 52.4 percent in July. Any number above 50 signals expansion. The services PMI will be out on Wednesday. Motor vehicle sales hit an annualized pace of 14.5 million in July, up from 13.1 million in June. Factory orders increased 6.2 percent in June, better than forecasted.

Economists expect jobless claims will hold steady at 1.40 million. They expect 1.75 million new jobs were created in July. They also forecast the unemployment rate to fall to 10.5 percent.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDP Now model projects 19.6 percent growth in the third quarter. This pace of growth would erase about half of the GDP decline from the second quarter.

Government bond yields continued falling to start the week. The 10-year treasury fell to 0.52 percent. Investment grade, corporate and government bond funds all rallied. High yield bonds were flat with credit risk holding steady.

The U.S. Dollar Index turned higher this week, with the index rising 0.2 percent.. iShares MSCI EAFE (EFA) shook off the stronger dollar to rise 2.46 percent on the first two days of trading. iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) climbed 1.93 percent.

Disney (DIS) beat earnings expectations after the close on Tuesday. It earned 8 cents per share. Analysts forecast a loss of 63 cents per share. Disney shares climbed in afterhours trading. Twilio (TWLO), Nikola (NKLA), Beyond Meat (BYND) and Activision Blizzard (ATVI) were all down in the aftermarket session following their earnings reports.

Wednesday brings ADT Corporation (ADT), Square (SQ), Roku (ROKU), Wayfair (W), Moderna (MRNA), Novavax (NVAX), Etsy (ETSY), Regeneron (REGN) and CVS Health (CVS).

Kodak (KODK), Trade Desk (TTD), Mercadolibre (MELI), Bristol-Myers (BMY), Illumina (ILMN) and Booking.com (BKNG) headline Thursday earnings.

Kimco Realty (KIM), Ventas (VTR) and Sorrento Therapeutics (SRNE) close out the week.

 

Market Perspective for July 27, 2020

Technology stocks drove the broad indexes higher on Monday. The Nasdaq climbed 1.67 percent, the Russell 2000 Index 1.16 percent, the S&P 500 Index 0.74 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 0.43 percent.

SPDR Technology (XLK) advanced 1.58 percent, SPDR Materials (XLB) 1.45 percent and SPDR Real Estate (XLRE) 1.18 percent.

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets this week. Chairman Powell will hold a press conference following the policy statement. Investors expect no change in Fed policy from the prior meeting.

Second quarter gross domestic product will be announced on Thursday. Forecasts range from negative 35 percent to negative 15 percent.

Durable goods orders rose 7.3 percent in June, better than forecasted. Core capital goods orders increased 3.3 percent.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index will be out on Tuesday. Analysts foresee a slight dip to 95.5 in July. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index is out on Friday. A small decline is expected as well. Economists predict initial claims for unemployment will rise to 1.51 million.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 0.61 percent on Monday. High yield bonds gained on the day thanks to falling credit risk. iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) increased 0.22 percent.

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) gained 1.55 percent and iShares MSCI EAFE (EFA) 1.31 percent.

This will be a significant week for corporate earnings. Tuesday brings Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Visa (V), Pfizer (PFE), Amgen (AMGN), McDonald’s (MCD), Starbucks (SBUX), 3M (MMM), eBay (EBAY), Mondelez (MDLZ) and Sherwin-Williams (SHW).

Boeing (BA), Facebook (FB), Shopify (SHOP), Paypal (PYPL), Qualcomm (QCOM) and General Electric (GE) headline Wednesday reports, along with Anthem (ANTM), General Motors (GM) O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) and Teladoc (TDOC).

On Thursday, Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), Comcast (CMCSA), Mastercard (MA), Proctor & Gamble (PG), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Newmont Mining (NEM), Ford (F). Eli Lilly (LLY) and Cigna (CI) delivering earnings.

Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Merck (MRK), AbbVie (ABBV), Caterpillar (CAT) and Dominion Energy (D) close out the week.