Market Perspective for August 25, 2020

Apple’s (AAPL) upcoming stock split spurred a change to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. As the DJIA is a price-weighted index, companies with high stock prices have a larger share of the index. Apple is currently 12.2 percent of the index while International Business Machines (IBM) is 3.0 percent of the index, about one-fourth the weighting, because Apple is $500 per share and IBM is $125 per share. When Apple splits 4-for-1, its weighting will fall to around 3.0 percent of the index, taking nearly 10 percent of the index’s technology weighting with it.

To rectify the sector weighting within the DJIA, the committee that selects Dow components announced Exxon Mobil (XOM), Pfizer (PFE) and Raytheon Technologies (RTX) will be removed from of the index as of August 31st. Amgen (AMGN), Honeywell (HON) and Salesforce.com (CRM) will now be included. The addition of CRM will replace the lost technology exposure from Apple, while the addition of Amgen and Honeywell will “help diversify the index by removing overlap between companies of similar scope and adding new types of businesses that better reflect the American economy.”

Shares of Exxon, Pfizer and Raytheon fell 1 to 2 percent on Tuesday morning, while Amgen, Honeywell and Salesforce.com all had gains approaching 3 percent or more. Historically, companies removed from an index have outperformed the stocks added to the index, so this might not be bad news for shareholders of the companies being removed.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey for August showed an uptick in optimism. Friday will bring the final reading on the University of Michigan’s August consumer sentiment survey. New home sales for July came in at an annualized sales pace of 790,000, a new post-2008 high.

Economists predict the Bureau of Economic Analysis will increase its estimate of second-quarter GDP slightly, to negative 32.5 percent.

Federal Reserve officials are holding a virtual Jackson Hole conference this week. Central bankers from around the world attend the conference. Although not an official policy meeting, Fed officials have signaled policy shifts in the past.

Salesforce.com expects headline earnings on Tuesday. Fresh on the heels of being added to the DJIA, Analysts forecast 67 cents per share in earnings and $4.9 billion in revenue.

Shares of Medtronic (MDT) climbed more than 4 percent in early trading following its earnings announcement.

Dollar General (DG), Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), Tiffany’s (TIF), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Big Lots (BIG), Gap (GPS) and Nordstrom (JWN) are among the major retailers reporting this week.

Fluor (FLR), Workday (WDAY), Marvell Technology (MRVL), VMWare (VMW) and HP Inc. (HPQ) also report this week.

 

Market Perspective for August 23, 2020

The Nasdaq gained 2.65 percent, while the S&P 500 Index 0.72 percent last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat and the Russell 2000 Index fell 1.77 percent. Economic data showed a strong housing rebound is underway.

Technology-related sectors were the best performers. SPDR Technology (XLK) climbed 3.57 percent. Large-cap technology lifted the sector, with Apple (AAPL) rising 8.18 percent. Apple came within 53 cents of $500 per share. Nvidia (NVDA) delivered solid earnings and rose 9.63 percent. SPDR Consumer Discretionary (XLY) climbed 1.82 percent. SPDR Communication Services (XLC) advanced 1.57 percent. Tesla (TSLA) also climbed to a new all-time high above $2000 per share.

The National Association of Homebuilders said its August homebuilders’ sentiment index matched the all-time high set in 1990. The reading comes with housing starts, building permits and existing home sales shooting past estimates in July. With people working from home and homeschooling, the demand for larger living spaces has resulted. Urban residents are also leaving cities in significant numbers, and seeking single-family housing. iShares U.S. Home Construction (ITB) climbed 4.51 percent on the week.

Initial jobless claims climbed to 1.11 million for the week ending August 15th. Continuing claims continued falling though, with state programs reporting a decline of 0.7 million to 14.8 million.

iShares MSCI EAFE (EFA) slid 0.62 percent on the week. iShares MSCI Eurozone (EZU) slipped 1.09 percent and iShares MSCI Japan (EWJ) fell 0.41 percent.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 0.64 percent this week. iShares 20+ Year Treasury (TLT) finished the week with a gain of 1.87 percent. iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) rallied 0.77 percent, iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) 0.75 percent and Fidelity Corporate Bond (FCOR) 0.66 percent.

Energy stocks fell on the week, despite crude oil holding steady. SPDR Energy (XLE) dipped 5.71 percent. Natural gas prices climbed due to higher temperatures around the country, but producers saw an even larger sell-off. First Trust Natural Gas (FCG) declined 8.92 percent.

 

Market Perspective for August 17, 2020

The Nasdaq gained 1.00 percent on Monday, the Russell 2000 Index 0.48 percent and the S&P 500 Index 0.27 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.31 percent.

SPDR Consumer Discretionary (XLY) gained 1.29 percent on the day. SPDR Real Estate (XLRE) advanced 0.89 percent, SPDR Technology (XLK) 0.67 percent and SPDR Healthcare (XLV) 0.59 percent.

The National Association of Homebuilders said its home builders’ confidence index hit its former all-time high of 78 in August. More housing data is coming on Tuesday with housing starts and building permits for July.  Analysts project increases in both from June levels. Existing home sales are out on Friday.

The minutes from the July FOMC meeting will be out on Wednesday. Economists project initial claims fell to 910,000 last week. The flash August PMIs for world economies will be out on Friday. Both surveys are expected to show expansion in July.

Bond yields dipped on Monday with the 10-year Treasury yield closing to 0.68 percent. Crude oil rose slightly to $42.81 per barrel. Natural gas fell 2 cents to $2.34 per mmBTU.

Retail earnings season kicks off in earnest on Tuesday with Wal-Mart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), Kohl’s (KSS) and Advance Auto Parts (AAP) headlining, along with Spectra Energy (SE), Agilent (A) and Cree Inc. (CREE).

On Wednesday, Lowes (LOW), Target (TGT), TJX Companies (TJX) and L Brands (L) dominate retail reports. Nvidia (NVDA) and Analog Devices (ADI) also deliver results.

Alibaba (BABA), Ross Stores (RSOT), Estee Lauder (EL), Gold Fields (GFI), Keysight Technologies (KEYS), BJ’s Wholesale Club (BJ) and The Toro Company (TTC) report on Thursday.

Deere & Co. (DE), Foot Locker (FL) and Pinduoduo (PDD) close out the week.