Market Perspective for September 4, 2020

The technology sector pulled the markets lower for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.82 percent, the S&P 500 Index 2.31 percent, the Russell 2000 Index 2.66 percent and the Nasdaq 3.27 percent.

SPDR Materials (XLB) gained 0.84 percent this week and SPDR Utilities (XLU) added 0.54 percent. SPDR Financials (XLF) declined only 0.24 percent and SPDR Consumer Staples (XLP) 0.38 percent. SPDR Technology (XLK) slipped 4.12 percent.

The unemployment rate fell to 8.4 percent in August, a full percentage point lower than the consensus forecast and down nearly 2 percentage points from July. The Bureau of Labor Statistics counted 1.37 million net new jobs for the month. Average wages increase 0.4 percent, far above the 0.0 percent consensus estimation.

Temporarily unemployed workers fell 33 percent or 3.1 million in August as businesses reopened. The labor force participation rate increased to 61.7 percent, indicating discouraged workers are looking for jobs. Initial jobless claims fell to 881,000 for the week ending August 29th, beating expectations. Continuing claims fell as well, hitting 13.25 million for the week ending August 22.

Motor vehicle sales climbed to an annualized rate of 15.2 million in August, up from 14.5 million in July.

The U.S. manufacturing PMI hit 56.0 in August, the highest reading since November 2018. The service PMI rose from 54.8 in July to 55.0 in August. Germany’s PMI crossed the 50 level that signals expansion. China’s manufacturing PMI hit a 9-year high.

The U.S. Dollar Index rebounded this week, rising 0.52 percent. iShares MSCI EAFE (EFA) fell 1.46 percent and iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) 2.62 percent.

iShares 20+ Year Treasury (TLT) closed the week with a gain of 1.13 percent. iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) gained 0.20 percent. iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) slipped 0.28 percent.

Crude oil declined 7.5 percent this week to $39.54 per barrel. It was the first close below $40 in more than a month. SPDR Energy (XLE) slipped 4.33 percent.

Earnings season is concluding with only a handful of companies left to report. Currently, S&P 500 earnings fell 31.7 percent in the second quarter, better than the 44.1 percent forecasted by analysts. Analysts normally cut their estimates during a quarter, but they are raising their estimates for the third quarter, the first time they’ve done this in 2 years. GDP growth estimates have been rising as well. The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now model forecasts 29.6 percent growth as of September 3.

Market Perspective for August 31, 2020

Equities were mixed on Monday, though tech and healthcare shares rallied. The Nasdaq gained 0.68 percent. The S&P 500 Index slid 0.22 percent, the Russell 2000 Index 0.53 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 0.78 percent.

SPDR Healthcare (XLV) advanced 0.27 percent and SPDR Technology (XLK) 0.28 percent. SPDR S&P Biotech (XBI) rose 2.80 percent and First Trust Dow Jones Internet (FDN) 0.88 percent. Post-split Tesla (TSLA) jumped 12.61 percent and post-split Apple (AAPL) 3.17 percent. Amazon (AMZN) climbed 1.21 percent and Netflix 1.04 percent.

August manufacturing PMIs will be out on Tuesday. Flash readings showed the U.S. manufacturing sector moved well into expansion, but Europe and Japan showed signs of weakness. Investors will be looking for confirmation of these trends tomorrow.

Motor vehicle sales will be released tomorrow. In July, sales climbed to an annualized pace of 14.5 million.

Friday brings the August unemployment report. Economists predict initial claims for unemployment will fall below 1 million in the week ended August 29. Weekly claims have held around 1 million, but continuing claims have been steadily declining. Economists predict 1.3 million net increase in payrolls last month, with the unemployment rate falling to 9.8 percent.

Crude oil held steady on Monday, closing at $42.82 per barrel. SPDR Energy (XLE) slipped 2.17 percent.

The 10-year yield fell to 0.69 percent. iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) rose 0.46 percent and Fidelity Corporate Bond climbed 0.41 percent on the day. iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) dipped 0.07 percent.

Earnings season is winding down. This week’s major reports include H&R Block (HRB), Five Below (FIVE), Copart (CPRT), DocuSign (DOCU), Broadcom (AVGO), Ciena (CIEN) and Campbell’s Soup (CPB).

 

Market Perspective for August 30, 2020

The Nasdaq rallied 3.39 percent last week, the S&P 500 Index 3.26 percent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average 2.59 percent and the Russell 2000 Index 1.67 percent.

SPDR Technology (XLK) and SPDR Financials (XLF) gained 4.47 percent to 4.32 percent, respectively this week. Financials rallied as investors anticipated Federal Reserve Chairman Powell would introduce a new inflation policy at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Powell delivered, stating the Federal Reserve would allow higher inflation before raising interest rates. However, he did not say the Fed would actively pursue a policy of higher inflation, rather the Fed would be slower in the face of rising inflation.

New home sales surged to an annualized pace of 901,000 in July. This was the final housing data point for this month, topping off a string of positive data on home sales, building permits, housing starts and homebuilder confidence. As is often the case, traders used the expected good news to unload their positions. iShares U.S. Home Construction (ITB) dipped 2.28 percent.

Consumer confidence was mixed. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey slipped in August, though the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey ticked up slightly.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis adjusted its second quarter GDP growth estimate to negative 31.7 percent, an improvement from negative 32.5 percent.

Initial claims for unemployment held at 1 million last week, but continuing claims fell 1 million.

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 0.73 percent on the week. It jumped from 0.65 percent to 0.75 percent after Chairman Powell spoke on Thursday. iShares 20+ year Treasury (TLT) fell 3.06 percent this week. Fidelity Corporate Bond (FCOR) fell 0.91 percent and iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) slid 1.09 percent. Invesco Senior Loan (BKLN) gained 0.77 percent and iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) climbed 0.45 percent on falling credit risk.

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) advanced 2.88 percent and iShares MSCI EAFE (EFA) added 1.68 percent.

The committee behind the Dow Jones Industrial Average announced changes to the index. Since the index is price-weighted, Apple’s (AAPL) split will cause its weight to fall 75 percent, reducing the index’s technology exposure. The committee used the opportunity to make other changes to the index. Exxon Mobil (XOM), Pfizer (PFE) and Raytheon Technologies (RTX) are out as of Monday, August 31. Now included are Amgen (AMGN), Honeywell (HON) and Salesforce.com (CRM). Amgen and Honeywell both gained more than 6 percent on the week. Salesforce delivered strong earnings and saw its shares climb 30 percent.