Click Here to view today’s Global Momentum Guide The MSCI EAFE increased 1.41 percent last week and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.67 percent. The S&P 500 Index […]
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Market Perspective for October 18, 2026
CPI data came in hotter than expected with inflation reaching 3.7 percent on an annualized basis compared to an expected 3.6 percent. Core CPI was also hotter than expected coming in at 2.6 percent on an annualized basis compared to an expected 2.5 percent. This has led to speculation that the Fed may decide to hike rates again by the end of the year.
Fed Chair Warsh refused to say whether the Fed would hike in October or December. He said that while inflation was an issue throughout the world, he didn’t want to telegraph what the Fed would do. He also said that it was important to take each meeting on its own merits, which is another reason why he doesn’t like to provide forward guidance.
The Price Producers Index (PPI) came in at 1.3 percent compared to an expected 0.8 percent in September. Core PPI came in at 0.7 percent compared to an expected 0.3 percent prior to the release. Retail sales were up 0.8 percent, which was much higher than the anticipated 0.3 percent prior to the release. Core retail sales were up 0.9 percent in September.
Unemployment claims remained steady for another week coming in at 199,000 over the last seven days. This was in line with expectations and just 1,000 more than last week’s figure.
The S&P 500 was down 2 percent this week to close at 7,659 at the end of trading on Friday. The index lost 157 points during the last five trading days and is now up 0.72 percent over the last month. This week, the market made a high of 7,814 Monday morning before falling steadily on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. The index closed near its weekly low on Friday.
The Dow was up 0.25 percent this week to close at 52,002 at the end of the day on Friday. This was a gain of 131 points since the beginning of the week. The market is now down 0.87 percent over the past month. This week, the index made a low of 51,347 on Wednesday and a high of 52,537 on Friday morning.
Finally, the Nasdaq was down 4.33 percent to close at 26,140 at the end of trading Friday. This was a loss of 1,183 points for an index that has generally outperformed its peers in 2026. The market is essentially flat over the last month.
Australia announced Wednesday night that its economy lost over 39,000 jobs in September and that the country’s unemployment rate ticked up to 4.7 percent. On Thursday, Great Britain announced that its gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.1 percent in September.
This coming week should be another interesting one as a number of important news events are on the calendar. Unemployment claims data comes out on Thursday while the University of Michigan comes out with consumer sentiment and inflation expectation data on Friday. Canada will announce its inflation data for September on Monday while Great Britain will do the same on Wednesday.
The Investor Guide to Vanguard Funds for October 2026
The Investor Guide to Vanguard Funds for October is AVAILABLE NOW! Links to the October data files are posted below. Market Perspective: New Highs for Stocks as AI Investment Doubts […]
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The Global Momentum Guide for October 12, 2026
Click Here to view today’s Global Momentum Guide The S&P 500 Index increased 1.15 percent last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average 0.93 percent and the Nasdaq 0.64 percent. […]
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Market Perspective for October 11, 2026
Monday saw the release of the ISM Services PMI. It came in at 54.9, which suggests that the service sector is doing quite well. Services spending has been among the pillars of the economy since 2020 and has long been considered one of the key drivers of inflation. However, such spending has also minimized the risk of a recession during periods of relatively higher interest rates.
On Wednesday afternoon, the FOMC released the minutes from the September meeting. As expected, there was little drama or controversy surrounding the rate hike that occurred at that meeting. Furthermore, the minutes revealed that there is little disagreement over the need for another hike. However, there is some discussion as to when that hike should take place and what the criteria would be to follow through on it.
Thursday morning, unemployment claims data for the previous seven days was released. During that period, there were 197,000 claims, which matched the total from last week. On Friday, the University of Michigan released its consumer sentiment and inflation expectation reports. Consumer sentiment came in at 46.3 compared to an expected 47.5.
Inflation is expected to be at 4.7 percent 12 months from now. If true, that would represent a significant increase from today’s level of about 3.4 percent on an annualized basis. Next week, the CPI report for September is due out, and analysts believe that inflation has risen to 3.6 percent on an annualized basis.
The S&P 500 was up 1 percent this week to close Friday’s trading at 7,811. This was a gain of 77 points over the last five trading days. Over the past month, the index is up 1.75 percent. This week, the index made a low of 7.735 early Monday morning and made a high of 7,842 on Tuesday afternoon.
The Dow was up 1.58 percent to finish the week at 51,654. This was a gain of just over 800 points for the index. Despite the strong performance over the last five days, it is still down 1.89 percent over the past month. For the week, the index made a low of 50,916 on the open of Monday’s session and a high of 51,753 just prior to the close on Friday.
Finally, the Nasdaq was flat this week, losing four points to close at 27,366. This was a loss of .01 percent over the last five trading days. The index is up 3.72 percent over the last month. This week, the Nasdaq made a high of 27,716 on Tuesday and a low of 27,094 on Thursday afternoon.
In international news, Canada announced Friday that its economy lost 68,000 jobs in September. This was compared to a projected gain of about 4,000 prior to the release. It was also announced that Canada’s unemployment rate increased to 6.5 percent from 6.4 percent in August. On Tuesday, the head of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) said that the nation may raise its key interest rate later in October. Despite this, he claims that monetary policy in the country remains conducive to economic growth.
This week should be another interesting one for market participants. In addition to CPI data, retail sales and PPI for September as scheduled to be released on Thursday. Unemployment claims will also be released on Thursday, as well as the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Fed Chair Warsh is scheduled to speak late Thursday night at a meeting of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund in Bangkok.