Market Perspective for May 3, 2026

Market Perspective for May 3, 2026

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The final trading days in April were consequential ones for market participants as several important data points were released. On Wednesday, the Fed made its April rate decision. Advance GDP data as well as the PCE Core Price Index for March also came out this week.

The action began on Wednesday with the release of the April rate decision. As expected, the Fed chose to keep rates where they were, but it was still noteworthy that four voting members dissented. Typically, the Fed members vote in unison or perhaps have two members dissent. Therefore, it’s likely that the future of monetary policy will be murky at best.

Complicating matters further is the fact that Fed Chair Jerome Powell is going to be staying with the Fed after his term as chairman is over. While he won’t have any direct power over future policy, he will still have a voice and some influence over other Fed members. Incoming Chairman Warsh says that he wants to push rates lower.

On Thursday, the advance gross domestic product (GDP) figures came out for the first quarter of 2026. Over the first three months of the year, the economy grew by 2 percent compared to an expected 2.2 percent. Meanwhile, GDP for the final quarter was revised downward to 0.5 percent.  The employment price index was up 0.9 percent over the same period.

Unemployment claims dropped to 189,000 this week compared to 215,000 last week. The actual total was also lower than the projected 213,000 claims prior to Thursday’s release. These numbers indicate that hiring is still relatively strong or at least not slowing down in the short-term.

The S&P 500 continued its hot streak for the month of April by finishing up 1.17 percent this week. It closed at 7,230, which was an increase of about 85 points over the last five days. For the week, it made a low of 7,110 on Wednesday and a high of 7,265 on Friday morning.

The Dow also finished the week in the green as it closed up 280 points to finish Friday’s trading at 49,499. This was an increase of 0.57 percent for the week as the index looks to approach or potentially reaching a new all-time high to start the month of May. Over the past five days, the index made a low of 48,736 on Wednesday afternoon and a high of 49,936 on Friday afternoon.

Finally, the Nasdaq was up 1.73 percent this week to close at 27,710. This was an increase of 471 points over the past five trading days. The market made a low of 26,886 on Tuesday morning while making a high of 27,754 on Friday morning.

In international news, a slew of interest rate decisions were made outside of the United States. Late Monday night, Japan decided to hold their main rate at 0.75 percent. On Wednesday, Canada kept its main rate steady at 2.25 percent. On Thursday, Great Britain and the Eurozone also decided to keep their interest rates steady at 3.75 percent and 2.15 percent, respectively.

In addition, Australia revealed on Tuesday night that its CPI is 4.6 percent on an annualized basis. Although it was up significantly from last month, it was lower than the projected 4.8 percent prior to the release.

This week, the April jobs reports come out on Wednesday and Friday. In addition, the ISM Services PMI comes out on Tuesday along with the JOLTS report. Unemployment claims data comes out on Thursday while the University of Michigan comes out with its inflation expectation and consumer confidence reports come out on Friday.

Market Perspective for April 26, 2026

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It was another consequential week as a slew of information came out that created volatility among different asset classes. The final week of April saw more fallout from the Iran war as well as the release of retail sale and unemployment claim data.

Retail sale data was released on Tuesday and revealed that core sales were up 1.9 percent in March compared to an expected increase of 1.4 percent. Overall retail sales were up 1.7 percent compared to an expected increase of 1.4 percent. Both core and overall retail sales were revised upward to a gain of 0.7 percent in February. As the economy is largely driven by consumer spending, this is a good sign for consumers, businesses and others who rely on a strong economy to get things done.

On Thursday, unemployment claim data for the week was released. During the last seven days, there were 214,000 requests for benefits compared to an expected 211,000 requests. Last week, there were 208,000 claims for unemployment payments.

Also on Thursday, the Flash Services PMI and Flash Manufacturing PMI were released. The Flash Services PMI came in at 51.3 compared to a projected 50.5 prior to Thursday morning. Last month’s reading was revised downward to 49.8. Ultimately, this signifies that the sector is seesawing between mild contraction and mild expansion.

The Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 54, which indicates a more robust expansion taking place. It was thought that the reading would come in at 52.5, and last month’s reading remained at 52.3.

Friday saw the release of the revised consumer sentiment and inflation expectation readings provided by the University of Michigan. Consumer sentiment was revised to 49.8 in April while inflation expectations were revised to 4.7 percent. Although still relatively low, the consumer sentiment number rebounded slightly from record lows earlier in the month.

The price of gold fell this week. Last Friday, the metal peaked at $4,888 an ounce before falling back to $4,657 during the middle of the current week. Gold is often seen as a safe haven, which means that there is likely going to be more choppy price action soon as events in Iran unfold.

The S&P 500 was up 48 points this week to finish at 7,165. This was an increase of 0.68 percent over the last five days. The week saw a lot of choppy price action as the index stayed mostly rangebound. On Thursday, the market made its low of the week of 7,047 before reversing and making a high of 7,167 late on Friday afternoon.

The Dow was down 0.41 percent this week to close at 49,230. This was a loss of 202 points over the last five trading days. As with the S&P 500, the Dow was also largely rangebound this week. It made a high of 49,836 on Tuesday before reversing and making a low of 49,081 on Thursday.

The Nasdaq was the big winner this week finishing up over 520 points this week to close at 27,303. This was a gain of almost 2 percent for the index that features big names like Apple and Nvidia. For the week, the index made a low of 26,405 on Tuesday and a high of 27,314 late on Friday.

In international news, Canada released its inflation figures for the month of March. During that time, overall CPI was up 0.9 percent, which translates to an annual inflation rate of 2.6 percent. On Wednesday, Great Britain announced that inflation was 3.3 percent on an annualized basis. Both Canada and Great Britain released retail sales figures on Friday. Great Britain saw spending increase 0.7 percent while Canada also saw an increase of 0.7 percent in March.

The upcoming week is sure to be another interesting one as a couple of key data points are scheduled to be released. On Wednesday, the Fed will make its interest rate decision for April, and it is expected to keep rates where they are at a range of 3.75 percent to 4 percent. Gross domestic product data, the Core PCE Price Index and unemployment claims data will also be released on Thursday.