Market Perspective for October 4, 2026

Market Perspective for October 4, 2026

On Tuesday, the CB Consumer Confidence report came in at 81.9 compared to an expected 89.2 prior to the release. The JOLTS report found that there were 7.08 million open positions in the United States, which was just under what analysts expected.

On Wednesday, the Core PCE Price Index for September was revealed that prices rose 0.2 percent during that period. This was a tick below the expected increase of 0.3 percent before the report came out. In addition, final GDP numbers for the second quarter of the year came out.

During that period, the economy grew 2.2 percent compared to an expected 1.5 percent. This gives more credence to Fed Chair Warsh’s assessment that the economy is poised to grow, which means that the Fed can focus on inflation as opposed to employment numbers. Interestingly, it was mentioned this week that there may not be a need for another rate hike in 2026. It was widely expected after September’s hike that at least one more would occur before the end of the calendar year.

Finally, Wednesday saw the release of the ADP’s version of the nonfarm payroll report. The economy added 90,000 jobs compared to an expected 76,000. However, the good news would be negated by a relatively sluggish report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday. 0

The report found that the economy added just 29,000 jobs in September compared to an expected 89,000. Furthermore, the August report was revised downward to 133,000 new jobs. In addition, average hourly earnings in September were up 0.1 percent compared to an expected increase of 0.3 percent. Finally, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2 percent compared to 4.1 percent last month.

In other news, unemployment claims remained steady with 197,000 requests for benefits over the last seven days. This was just 1,000 short of last week’s figure of 198,000.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.5, which shows that the sector is still in an expansion phase. The ISM Services PMI will be released on Monday.

The S&P 500 was up 0.24 percent to finish at 7,722, which was an increase of 18 points for the week. Over the last month, the index is up 0.67 percent. For the week, the market made a low of 7,625 on Thursday and a high of 7,750 on Friday.

The Dow was down 0.69 percent this week to close at 51,176. This was a loss of 353 points this week despite finishing Friday up more than 250 points. On Monday, the market made a weekly high of 51,176 and a weekly low of 50,616 on Thursday. The index is down 3.72 percent over the last month.

Finally, the Nasdaq was up 1.01 percent this week to close at 27,190. This was a gain of 270 points over the last five trading days for a market that is up 3.46 percent over the last month. The index made a weekly low of 26,743 on Monday and a weekly high of 27,309 on Friday.

In international news, Australia announced Tuesday that CPI was at 0.4 percent on a monthly basis in September and 4 percent on an annualized basis. This came a day after the Reserve Bank of Australia increased the country’s main interest rate to 4.6 percent from 4.35 percent. Canada announced on Tuesday that GDP growth was flat on a monthly basis, which was expected prior to the announcement.

This week will surely be consequential as the FOMC meeting minutes from September as set to be made public Wednesday afternoon. Unemployment claims data comes out on Thursday while the University of Michigan releases its consumer sentiment and inflation expectation data on Friday.

Market Perspective for September 27, 2026

Market Perspective for September 27, 2026

This was another consequential week as markets continued to digest the Fed’s decision to hike rates last Wednesday. Markets are also bracing for the prospect of more interest rate hikes before the end of the year.

Oil has engaged in choppy trade over the last month or so. The start of September saw the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) jump to about $102 a barrel. However, by the start of this week, it had dropped to about $90 a barrel before rising again to around $98 by midweek.

Bond markets made strong moves to the upside this week as the rate for the 10, 20 and 30-year Treasury bond breaching 5 percent. The two, three and five-year bonds are all at 4.8 percent or higher. This is important because mortgage rates are highly correlated with the 10-year bond. Therefore, as bond rates go higher, mortgage rates will as well.

The interest rate for a 30-year mortgage rose to 7.5 percent as a result. This will likely have a detrimental impact for buyers and sellers alike as higher rates mean buyers have less to spend, which can keep prices lower.

On Wednesday, the Flash Services PMI and Flash Manufacturing PMI came out. The Flash Services PMI came in at 58.7 while the Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 57. This means that both sectors are experiencing growth, which should be solid news for the economy in the short-term. However, it can also have negative implications for inflation and stricter monetary policy.

Thursday, unemployment claims for the last seven days were made public. During that period, 197,000 people asked for benefits, which was just 1,000 fewer than last week and about 4,000 less than analysts predicted before the report was released.

Finally, Friday saw the release of the consumer sentiment and inflation expectation reports from the University of Michigan. Consumer sentiment came in at 48.1 while inflation is expected to be at 4.6 percent 12 months from now.

The S&P 500 was up 52 points this week to close at 7,743. This was a 0.68 percent increase since the beginning of trading Monday. The market is now up 1.15 percent over the past month. For the week, the index made a high of 7,777 on Tuesday and a low of 7,666 on Thursday.

The Dow was down 0.05 percent this week to close at 51,828. This was a loss of 24 points for a market that has struggled recently to sustain its momentum from earlier this year. It is down 3.05 percent over the last month but is still up 12.8 percent over the last 12 months. This week, the index made a high of 52,162 on Tuesday and a low of 51,127 on Thursday.

Finally, the Nasdaq was up 1.15 percent to finish the week at 27,068. This was an increase of 308 points for an index that has significantly outperformed the other two major indexes. For the week, the index made a high of 27,282 on Tuesday and a low of 26,707 on Thursday.

In international news, Australia announced on Wednesday that its economy gained 39,500 jobs over the last month. On Thursday morning, Switzerland announced that it would keep the nation’s key interest rate at 0 percent. Also on Thursday, Canada announced that retail sales dropped 0.7 percent in August.

The upcoming week should be another interesting one as several key news events are on the schedule. On Tuesday, the CB Consumer Confidence and JOLTS reports come out while the Core PCE Price Index and final GDP numbers for the second quarter come out Wednesday. The ADP and BLS nonfarm payroll reports for September come out Wednesday and Friday.