Market Perspective for September 27, 2026

Market Perspective for September 27, 2026

This was another consequential week as markets continued to digest the Fed’s decision to hike rates last Wednesday. Markets are also bracing for the prospect of more interest rate hikes before the end of the year.

Oil has engaged in choppy trade over the last month or so. The start of September saw the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) jump to about $102 a barrel. However, by the start of this week, it had dropped to about $90 a barrel before rising again to around $98 by midweek.

Bond markets made strong moves to the upside this week as the rate for the 10, 20 and 30-year Treasury bond breaching 5 percent. The two, three and five-year bonds are all at 4.8 percent or higher. This is important because mortgage rates are highly correlated with the 10-year bond. Therefore, as bond rates go higher, mortgage rates will as well.

The interest rate for a 30-year mortgage rose to 7.5 percent as a result. This will likely have a detrimental impact for buyers and sellers alike as higher rates mean buyers have less to spend, which can keep prices lower.

On Wednesday, the Flash Services PMI and Flash Manufacturing PMI came out. The Flash Services PMI came in at 58.7 while the Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 57. This means that both sectors are experiencing growth, which should be solid news for the economy in the short-term. However, it can also have negative implications for inflation and stricter monetary policy.

Thursday, unemployment claims for the last seven days were made public. During that period, 197,000 people asked for benefits, which was just 1,000 fewer than last week and about 4,000 less than analysts predicted before the report was released.

Finally, Friday saw the release of the consumer sentiment and inflation expectation reports from the University of Michigan. Consumer sentiment came in at 48.1 while inflation is expected to be at 4.6 percent 12 months from now.

The S&P 500 was up 52 points this week to close at 7,743. This was a 0.68 percent increase since the beginning of trading Monday. The market is now up 1.15 percent over the past month. For the week, the index made a high of 7,777 on Tuesday and a low of 7,666 on Thursday.

The Dow was down 0.05 percent this week to close at 51,828. This was a loss of 24 points for a market that has struggled recently to sustain its momentum from earlier this year. It is down 3.05 percent over the last month but is still up 12.8 percent over the last 12 months. This week, the index made a high of 52,162 on Tuesday and a low of 51,127 on Thursday.

Finally, the Nasdaq was up 1.15 percent to finish the week at 27,068. This was an increase of 308 points for an index that has significantly outperformed the other two major indexes. For the week, the index made a high of 27,282 on Tuesday and a low of 26,707 on Thursday.

In international news, Australia announced on Wednesday that its economy gained 39,500 jobs over the last month. On Thursday morning, Switzerland announced that it would keep the nation’s key interest rate at 0 percent. Also on Thursday, Canada announced that retail sales dropped 0.7 percent in August.

The upcoming week should be another interesting one as several key news events are on the schedule. On Tuesday, the CB Consumer Confidence and JOLTS reports come out while the Core PCE Price Index and final GDP numbers for the second quarter come out Wednesday. The ADP and BLS nonfarm payroll reports for September come out Wednesday and Friday.

Market Perspective for September 20, 2026

Market Perspective for September 20, 2026

It was another consequential week for market participants as the Fed made its September interest rate decision. This had a significant impact on markets and will likely have ramifications for consumers and investors going forward. It may also put Fed Chair Warsh at odds with President Trump just before the midterm elections.

On Wednesday, the Fed decided to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4 percent to 4.25 percent. This was the first rate increase in three years and bucked the general consensus that rates would fall throughout the course of the year and beyond. Warsh mentioned that inflation has been higher than desired for a long period of time and that economic data suggests that the Fed can focus on price stability without putting the labor market in peril.

It’s unclear if future rate hikes are on the table, and future decisions will likely be based on inflation, employment and other key data as has been customary in recent years. President Trump may be a potential indirect roadblock to more hikes in the short-term. He has long advocated for lower rates, and while the Fed is independent, the president does have the right to appoint its director. Therefore, Warsh may feel some amount of pressure to tread lightly.

On Thursday, unemployment claim data for the last seven days was made public. Over that time period, there were 196,000 requests for benefits, which was lower than the projected 207,000 prior to the release of the latest report. There were 206,000 unemployment benefit claims last week.

The S&P 500 was up 0.46 percent this week to close at 7,646, which was a gain of 34 points over the last five trading days. Over the last month, the index is down 1.69 percent but is up 15 percent over the last 12 months. This week, the market made a low of 7,509 on Wednesday and closed near its weekly high.

The Dow lost 771 points this week to close at 51,682 at the end of trading Friday. This represents a loss of 1.47 percent over the last five trading days for an index that is down 3.42 percent over the last month. Despite the short-term losses, the index is up 12 percent over the last 12 months. This week, the market made a high of 52,576 on Monday and a low of 51,279 on Friday.

Finally, the Nasdaq was up 1.79 percent to close Friday at 26,522. The market gained 449.5 points this week to regain a portion of its losses over the last several weeks. Over the last month, the market is down 0.9 percent and is up 18 percent over the last 12 months. This week, it made a low of 25,866 on Wednesday and a high of 26,537 on Friday.

The Fed was not the only major central bank to make interest rate decisions this week. On Thursday morning, the Bank of England decided to hold its key interest rate steady at 3.75 percent. However, it has indicated that it might vote for a hike in November to remain in sync with actions taken by most other major central banks recently. The Bank of Japan on Thursday night voted to increase its key rate from about 1 percent to about 1.25 percent.

Gold seems to have found an area of resistance on the chart as it tested and bounced off of the $4,300 level this week. The metal finished the week at about $4,400 an ounce. Silver also rallied this week to about $67 an ounce. Oil was also up this week as tensions in Iran continue to result in supply disruptions.

There will be some important news coming out of Europe as Switzerland makes a rate decision on Thursday morning. In addition, the PMI Flash Services and PMI Flash Manufacturing PMI reports come out throughout the week.