Market Perspective for August 16, 2026

Market Perspective for August 16, 2026

It was another consequential week for market. Wednesday saw the release of CPI data, Thursday brought the Price Producers Index (PPI) for July and Friday saw the release of retail sale data for July.

Inflation data was largely in line with expectations on both an annual and monthly basis. The same was true for both core inflation and overall inflation. On an annualized basis, core inflation was 2.5 percent while overall inflation was 3.4 percent. On a monthly basis, core inflation increased by 0.2 percent while overall inflation increased by 0.1 percent.

The PPI came in below expectations for July. Overall PPI was flat compared to an expected gain of 0.2 percent while core PPI was 0.2 percent compared to an expected gain of 0.3 percent.

Retail sales were also below expectations in July as overall sales dropped 0.6 percent compared to an expected gain of 0.1 percent. Core retail sales were down 0.3 percent compared to an expected gain of 0.2 percent.

Unemployment claims ticked up this past week with 209,000 requests for benefits filed over the past seven days compared to 200,000 in the previous reporting period. Analysts expected that 202,000 claims would have been made during the period.

The University of Michigan released its consumer sentiment and inflation expectation reports on Friday. It found that consumer sentiment was at 51, which was significantly lower than last month’s 55.2 and lower than the expected 54.7 prior to the data being made public. Inflation expectations edged up slightly to 4.3 percent. This means that respondents expect the inflation rate to be at 4.3 percent 12 months from now.

The S&P 500 was up 30 points this week to close at 7,785. This was an increase of 0.39 percent from the open on Monday, and the index is now up 3 percent over the past month. For the week, the market made a low of 7,716 on Tuesday before reversing and making a high of 7,815 on Thursday.

Unlike the S&P 500, the Dow was down over the last five trading days. For the week, it lost 251 points to close at 53,732 at the end of day on Friday. This was a loss of 0.47 percent. This week, the index made a high of 54,218 on Tuesday before reversing and closing near its weekly low.

Finally, the Nasdaq was up 1 percent this week to close at 30,046, which was an increase of 319 points for the week. The market is up 1.67 percent over the past month. For the week, the market made a low of 29,432 on Tuesday and a high of 30,146 on Friday afternoon.

In international news, Australia decided on Tuesday morning to keep its key interest rate steady at 4.35 percent. On Thursday, Great Britain announced that its GDP was up 0.3 percent in July despite expectations that GDP was flat during that time period.

Gold continued its steady run this month reaching a high of roughly $4,450 per ounce before easing a bit in Friday trading. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hit a high of $87 per barrel on Tuesday before entering a narrow range the rest of the week.

The coming week will likely be another consequential one for the market. The main event will be the Wednesday release off the FOMC meeting minutes from July’s meeting. This should provide some more insight into what the Fed is thinking and likely create opportunities for traders. In addition, unemployment claims data comes out on Thursday while the Flash Services PMI and Flash Manufacturing PMI comes out on Friday.

Market Perspective for August 9, 2026

Market Perspective for August 9, 2026

On Monday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI was released and came in at 55.6 compared to an expected 54. It was also higher than last month’s reading of 53.3, which means that the manufacturing sector is in a period of expansion. On Wednesday, the ISM Services PMI came in at 54.1, which was lower than the expected 54.5.

Tuesday saw the release of the JOLTS report, which reveals how many job openings exist in the United States. In July, there were 7.36 million open jobs in the country, which was roughly in line with analyst expectations.

On Thursday, unemployment claims came in at 199,000 over the last seven days. This was roughly in line with analyst expectations and almost unchanged from last week.

The ADP nonfarm payroll report found that the economy added 44,000 jobs in July compared to an expected gain of 68,000. This is about half the number of jobs that were added in June when 95,000 new positions were added.

The real shocker came on Friday when the BLS revealed that the economy lost 23,000 jobs in July. June’s job number was revised downward to 20,000. This was compared to an expected gain of 85,000 jobs in July.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent released a statement on Friday saying that the jobs report represented good news for workers. He claims that GDP growth is poised to accelerate in the third quarter. Whether that is true or simply an attempt to change the narrative will have to be seen.

The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1 percent thanks to a decrease in the labor force participation rate. This measures the number of people who are either working or actively looking for work at the time that the unemployment figures are calculated.

Average hourly wages were up 0.1 percent compared to an expected rise of 0.3 percent. The silver lining to that figure is that it could mean that inflation will slow at least on a temporary basis. It also means that the Fed is less likely to hike rates in 2026 as a growing number of economists and Fed members are calling for.

The S&P 500 was up 212 points this week to close at 7,757 at the end of trading Friday. This is an increase of 2.82 percent over the last five trading days. It also means that the S&P 500 is now positive over the last 30 month. On Monday, the market opened at its lowest point of 7,540 and made a high of 7,790 on Wednesday.

The Dow was up 991 points this week to close at 54,036. This was an increase of 1.87 percent over the last five trading days. The index is now up 2.16 percent over the last month. Over the past five days, the index made a low of 52,985 on Monday and a high of 54,730 on Wednesday.

Finally, the Nasdaq was up 1,087 this week to close at 26,690. This was an increase of 4.25 percent. Over the last month, the index is up 1.88 percent and is up 25.65 percent. This week, the Nasdaq made a low of 25,599 on Monday morning and closed near its weekly high on Friday.

Next week will be another consequential one for traders as inflation data is set to be released on Wednesday. The Price Producer Index (PPI) for July will come out on Thursday while retail sales data will come out on Friday. Those with eyes toward international markets may be looking ahead to an interest rate decision on Monday from Australia’s central bank. Great Britain is set to release GDP data on Wednesday morning.