Market Perspective for November 1, 2026

Market Perspective for November 1, 2026

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Last Wednesday, the FOMC made its latest rate decision, and the result created volatility across the markets. While there was some debate over what the Fed was going to do, it decided to hold the line until after the midterm elections. The Fed Funds Rate remains at 3.75 percent to 4 percent until at least December. However, there is rampant speculation that rates will go up at least 25 basis points at the next FOMC meeting.

Fed Chair Warsh hinted at the possibility of a rate hike during his press conference on Wednesday. He said that the FOMC would be better prepared to make a rate decision in December because of the information that will be acquired over the next two months. Warsh also said that energy prices were one of the main drivers of inflation and that his job was to ensure that those increases don’t cause price shocks elsewhere in the economy.

The Core PCE Price Index for September came in at 0.3 percent, which matched market expectations. This is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which means that the next two reports will play a key role in whether the Fed raises the key interest rate or opts to hold the line.

Advance GDP data suggests that the economy grew by 3.4 percent over the third quarter of 2026. This was slightly above the expected 3.2 percent prior to the release of this report. Economic growth in the second quarter was revised upward to 2.2 percent, which further strengthens the argument that the United States is poised for a period of broad and sustained growth going forward.

The S&P 500 was down 1.15 percent this week to close at 7,580. This was a loss of 88 points over the last five trading days, and it pushes the market further into the red for the month of October. During that time, the index lost more than 2 percent. This week, the market made a high of 7746 on Wednesday and a low of 7,539 on Friday.

The Dow was down 648 points this week to close at 51,770. This was a loss of 1.24 percent for the index that tracks the 30 largest companies in the United States. It is now down .02 percent over the last month and up 8.94 percent over the last 12 months. Over the last five days, it made a high of 52,520 early Monday morning and a low of 51,587 on Friday.

Finally, the Nasdaq was down 2.46 percent this week to close at 25,437. This was a loss of 640 over the last five days for a market that is now down 6 percent over the last month. However, it is still up almost 8 percent since this time last year. On Wednesday, the market made a weekly high of 26,562 before reversing and making a weekly low of 25,226 on Friday.

Gold and silver prices fell dramatically this week after the Fed held rates steady. An ounce of gold dropped below $3,900, for the first time since July making a yearly low of $3,869 on Friday. Silver dipped below $49 an ounce on Friday, which also represented a yearly low before rebounding slightly to finish the week.

Next week will be another consequential one for market participants as the United States is holding its midterm elections on Tuesday. Additionally, the JOLTS report comes out on Tuesday while the ISM Services PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI will also be made public next week.

Market Perspective for October 25, 2026

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On Thursday, unemployment claims for the last seven days were made public. During that time period, there were 194,000 requests for unemployment benefits. This was compared to an expected 200,000 such requests prior to the release.

On Friday, the University of Michigan released its inflation expectation and consumer sentiment reports. Inflation was expected to rise to 4.7 percent 12 months from now, which was in line with projections. Consumer sentiment came in at 48 compared to an expected 46.3 prior to the release.

Also on Friday, the Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI were released. Manufacturing came in at 56, indicating the sector is undergoing a relatively strong period of expansion. Services came in at 57.9, which means that the economy is strong and broadly diversified. This is often seen as a good sign for future growth prospects.

Oil prices went up sharply over the last five trading days. By Friday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) had hit a high of $107 a barrel, which was just more than $8 higher than the weekly low of $98 set on Tuesday. Part of the increase had to do the latest developments in Iran. However, lower inventories in the United States may also be playing a role in higher prices.

Gold and silver prices both dropped significantly this week. Gold dropped below $4,000 an ounce on Friday for the first time since July. Silver dropped below $55 an ounce for the first time since July as investors digest the economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

The S&P 500 was down about 0.9 percent this week to close at 7,623. This was a loss of about 70 points for the index that seemed to have gained momentum again just a couple of weeks ago. The S&P 500 is down 1.1 percent over the last four weeks. Over the last five trading days, the market made a high of 7,768 on Wednesday and a low of 7,621 on Friday.

The Dow was up 0.61 percent this week to close at 52,215. This was a gain of 317 points for the index that tracks that 30 largest companies in the nation. Over the last four weeks, the index has appreciated about 0.73 percent. This week, it made a low of 51,51,915 at the open on Monday and a high of 52,884 on Thursday.

Finally, the Nasdaq was down 1.7 percent this week to close Friday’s trading at 25,955. The index is down 3.5 percent over the last four weeks. This week, it made a high of 26,760 on Wednesday before reversing and closing near its weekly low on Friday.

In international news, Canada announced Monday that inflation increased 0.1 percent in September and up 1.9 percent on an annualized basis. Great Britain announced Wednesday morning that inflation was up 3.5 percent on an annualized basis in September. Friday, the nation announced that retail sales dropped 0.4 percent in September.

Next week is sure to be another interesting one as the Fed will make its rate decision on Wednesday. It’s unclear whether the Fed will pause before the midterm or hike by 25 basis points to keep inflation in check. Canada, New Zealand and the Eurozone will also be making rate decisions next week along with Japan. The Core PCE Price Index and advance GDP figures from the third quarter are set to be released on Thursday.