The Investor Guide to Vanguard Funds for July 2019

The Investor Guide to Vanguard Funds for July is AVAILABLE NOW! Links to the July data files are posted below. Market Perspective: New All-Time Highs Reach Stocks hit new all-time […]

Market Perspective for July 15, 2019

The major indexes were mixed on Monday as investors brace for earnings season. The Nasdaq rose 0.17 percent, while the S&P 500 gained 0.02 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average returned 0.10 percent.

SPDR Utilities (XLU) advanced 0.40 percent, SPDR Technology 0.33 percent and SPDR Consumer Discretionary (XLY) 0.32 percent to lead sector performance. Weakness was concentrated in SPDR Energy (XLE), which fell 0.90 percent as oil fell back below $60. Traders bid up oil prices above $60 per barrel last week as Hurricane Barry approached the Gulf region, but the storm didn’t create as much damage as feared.

The Empire state index of manufacturing in the New York Federal Reserve bank’s territory jumped to 4.3 in July. Numbers above zero indicate expansion.

Economists predict June retail sales will cool after several strong months. They see growth in headline sales and ex-autos slowing to 0.1 percent from 0.5 percent the prior month. Industrial production is also expected to ease to 0.1 percent growth in June.

The National Association of Homebuilders confidence index for July is out on Today. Housing starts and building permits for June are due on Wednesday.

The University of Michigan will release its advance consumer confidence reading for July on Friday. Analysts are looking for a small increase.

Bond yields fell on Monday. The 10-year yield settled at 2.09 percent. It has rebounded from a low of 1.95 percent on July 3. Most bond funds gained on the day. iShares 20+ Year Treasury (TLT) advanced 0.58 percent, Invesco Senior Bank Loan (BKLN) 0.18 percent, iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) 0.17 percent, PIMCO Corporate Bond (CORP) 0.15 percent and iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) 0.07 percent.

Citigroup (C) kicked off a busy earnings week by beating expectations, but weaker trading revenue tempered the report. Shares fell 0.06 percent on the day. Citigroup adds to the string of companies beating earnings estimates this quarter. Coming into this week, 83 percent of earnings were better than expected.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Charles Schwab (SCHW), CSX Corp (CSX), United Continental (UAL), Dominos Pizza (DPS) and First Republic Bank (FRC) report earnings on Today.

Wednesday brings Netflix (NFLX), Bank of America (BAC), Abbott Labs (ABT), International Business Machines (IBM), U.S. Bancorp (USB), eBay (EBAY) and Bank of New York (BK) deliver results.

Microsoft (MSFT), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Danaher (DHR), Morgan Stanley (MS), Honeywell (HON), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Union Pacific (UNP), Philip Morris International (PMI) and Novartis (NVS) report on Thursday.

State Street (STT), Schlumberger (SLB), BlackRock (BLK) and American Express (AXP) close out the week.

Market Perspective for July 13, 2019

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Index all made new all-time highs as strong economic data lifted stocks. The Dow crossed 27,000 for the first time and the S&P 500 Index closed above 3000. The Dow gained 1.51 percent, the Nasdaq advanced 1.02 percent and the S&P 500 Index climbed 0.78 percent. The Russell 2000 Index slid 0.32 percent.

The energy sector outperformed after oil rallied to $60 per barrel. Traders are betting tropical storm Barry could shut oil platforms and refineries in the Gulf Coast.  SPDR Energy (XLE) gained 2.14 percent on the week.

SPDR Consumer Discretionary (XLY) rose 1.95 percent, SPDR Communication Services (XLC) 1.63 percent and SPDR Technology (XLK) 1.50 percent.

Investors continued to favor quality and low volatility stocks. Despite a pullback in utilities and real estate, iShares Edge MSCI Minimum Volatility USA (USMV) returned 0.69 percent. Vanguard Dividend Appreciation (VIG) increased 1.02 percent.

The National Federation of Independent Business reported a 1.7-point decline in its small-business confidence index, though the survey remains near multi-decade highs. Small business owners continue to cite a lack of skilled workers as one of their chief concerns.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed 7.3 million openings in May, down slightly from April. It remains near all-time highs and higher than the number of unemployed Americans. Weekly jobless claims slid to 209,000, below the expected 221,000.

Core consumer inflation rose faster than forecasted in June, up 0.3 percent versus 0.2 percent expectation. Core inflation has increased 2.1 percent over the past year, within the Fed’s target range. Headline inflation was also 0.1 percent higher than the consensus forecast, but has fallen to 1.6 percent over the past 12 months thanks to lower energy prices.

Producer prices also came in hotter than forecast at 1.7 percent versus 1.6 percent headline. Core producer prices have increased 2.3 percent over the past 12 months.

The 10-year Treasury yield rallied to 2.11 percent. The advance in yields sank many bond funds, though floating-rate funds advanced. PowerShares Senior Loan (BKLX) gained 0.18 percent.

Both Delta Air Lines (DAL) and Pepsi (PEP) beat earnings forecasts. Delta stock gained 5.03 percent on the news and Pepsi rose 0.20 percent.