Market Perspective for December 10, 2018

Equities staged a midday rally, with the Nasdaq gaining 0.74 percent and the S&P 500 Index 0.17 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Averaged 0.14 percent on the day. Major indexes bounced off long-term support levels that have held in 2018, which is a positive sign for investors.

Major market sectors diverged in their performance. SPDR Technology (XLK) rallied 1.38 percent, while SPDR Financials (XLF) slid 1.39 percent. Healthcare, industrials and consumer discretionary all saw small gains in line with the major indexes.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed 7.1 million job openings in October. The data indicates there are one million more job openings than the number of unemployed.

November producer and consumer price indexes are due midweek. Analysts believe core CPI will rise 0.2 percent. The PPI gained 0.6 percent in October, but it is expected to decline 0.1 percent in November.

China’s consumer and producer inflation was slower than expected. Consumer prices fell 0.3 percent in November and producer prices dipped 0.2 percent.

British Prime Minister Theresa May canceled a vote on the Brexit plan. The news sank the pound by 1.5 percent against the dollar and pulled the euro 0.5 percent lower. iShares MSCI United Kingdom (EWU) fell 1.19 percent.

West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3 percent to $51 a barrel. WTI hasn’t closed below $50 in 2018. Natural gas was stable at $4.50 per mmBTU.

Tuesday brings the National Federation of Independent Business small business confidence index. November retail sales will be out on Friday along with various flash PMIs for December.

Adobe (ADBE), Costco (COST), Ciena (CIEN) and SodaStream (SODA) are highlights in a light week for earnings reports.

 

Market Perspective for December 7, 2018

The markets declined this week, but they failed to create a potential panic. The S&P 500 Index failed to sustain a break below 2630 on Thursday and Friday. Going back to November 20, this level has been tested six times and support has yet to be broken.

ISM services PMIs out this week confirmed the strengthening in the U.S. economy showed by the manufacturing PMIs. The ISM survey climbed to 60.7, beating last month’s 60.3. Unemployment held steady at 3.7 percent. Average hourly earnings remained at 0.2 percent.

President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met at the G20 summit last weekend to discuss trade. The U.S. will delay implementing tariffs on all Chinese imports at least until March 1, while China would repeal retaliatory tariffs on autos and purchase more U.S. agricultural exports.

Crude oil hit $54 a barrel before settling at $52.13 on Friday. OPEC and Russia agreed to support oil prices with production cuts. This should stabilize the market.

The U.S. Dollar Index was steady this week, gaining slightly versus emerging market currencies.

Market Perspective for December 3, 2018

Stocks jumped on Monday morning after President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed they would impose a truce to the trade war. China may also reduce auto tariffs that were hiked to 40 percent as part of the ongoing dispute.

Energy, technology, consumer discretionary and materials led the market. The Nasdaq gained 1.51 percent. SPDR Technology (XLK) rose 2.21 percent and SPDR Energy (XLE) 2.22 percent. Emerging market funds also rebounded. iShares China Large Cap (FXI) advanced 1.64 percent on Monday and the Chinese yuan rallied more than 1 percent.

Manufacturing PMIs showed the U.S. manufacturing sector improved in November. The Markit number slipped from 55.4 to 55.3, but the ISM survey climbed from 57.7 to 59.3.

Friday’s employment report will be telling. Economists expect 190,000 new jobs, down from 250,000 a month earlier. The consensus forecast calls for 3.7 percent unemployment and wage growth of 0.3 percent.

Crude oil rebounded along with equities on Monday, climbing above $53 a barrel for the first time in a week. Natural gas fell on the day as it consolidates following last month’s price surge.

The 10-year Treasury yield declined to 2.99 percent, the first time it traded under 3 percent since mid-September.

Autozone (AZO), Dollar General (DG), Toll Brothers (TOL), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Lululemon (LULU), Okta (OKTA), American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), H&R Block (HRB), Five Below (FIVE), Broadcom (AVGO), Kroger (KR), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Thor Industries (THO) and Big Lots (BIG) all report earnings this week.

Note: Markets and government offices will close on Wednesday in observance of former President George H.W. Bush’s funeral. Economic data provided by the government and scheduled for Wednesday release will be delayed until Thursday.