Market Perspective for November 21, 2016

Activity should be light this week due to the holiday. Markets will be closed Thursday for Thanksgiving. Lower volume and holiday sentiment bode well for stocks as the major indices continue to flirt with new all-time highs. A recent survey indicated individual investor sentiment is at its highest level in almost two years. Over $44.5 billion has been invested in equity exchange-traded funds since the election.

European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi delivered prepared remarks before the European Parliament on Monday. U.S. existing home sales figures, which are forecast to be slightly lower than the previous report, will be released on Tuesday. Wednesday’s mortgage applications will be compared to week’s unexpected decline. Durable goods orders and new homes sales data will also be available on Wednesday. While durable goods orders are predicted to rise 1.5 percent, new home sales are forecast to decline slightly in the face of rising mortgage rates.

Weekly unemployment claims figures will be released a day early due to the Thanksgiving market closure. Unemployment claims are expected to rise slightly from last week. The final University of Michigan Consumer sentiment figures are expected to remain unchanged at 91.6 when they are also released Wednesday. Crude inventory figures are also scheduled for release midweek.

The latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes will be released on Wednesday. Black Friday sales will also provide data points to gauge the American consumer climate.

As earnings season winds down, 470 of the S&P 500 have already reported. Overall, earnings have risen 3.8 percent year-over-year and revenues have increased 2.6 percent. Tyson Foods, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Dollar Tree and John Deere and Company are scheduled to report earnings this week. Hewlett Packard Enterprises (HPE) will deliver quarterly earnings and report on the status of a merger with U.K.-based Micro Focus (MCFUF) and other restructuring efforts.

Discount retailer Dollar Tree (DLTR) is also scheduled to release its earnings on Tuesday. John Deere and Company (DE) will report on Wednesday. Investors will focus on the company’s sales figures and the number of maturing leases. Falling crop prices could negatively affect farmers’ abilities to purchase or lease new equipment.

Market Perspective for November 18, 2016

Market Perspective for November 18, 2016

Financial and technology sectors brought major averages near all-time highs this week as post-election optimism continued. The SPDR Financial Select Sector ETF (XLF) gained more than 2 percent, while shares of the SPDR Technology Select Sector ETF (XLK) were up slightly more than 1 percent. Gold prices dropped close to 3.5 percent on the week as the dollar index rose. The SPDR Standard & Poor’s 500 index ETF (SPY) was higher by more than 1 percent.

During her congressional testimony Thursday, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen stated that a near-term rate increase would be appropriate and that waiting too long would have negative effects. She also indicated that any increases would come at a gradual pace. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to meet in mid-December. Odds of a rate hike at the meeting have reached an almost certain 91 percent.

October’s 0.8-percent retail sales beat consensus forecasts and, for the first time in four months, the New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey reached positive territory. Economists had expected a slight uptick, but new orders and shipments were much stronger than anticipated. European third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) grew in-line with the expected 1.3-percent year-over-year increase.

On Wednesday, the weekly mortgage purchase application index unexpectedly slipped 1.2 percent as mortgage rates continued to rise. The Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization figures for October signaled flat production and utilization that was lower than forecast. The weekly oil inventory report indicated another large build. The price of oil rallied early in the week on reports of an OPEC meeting in Doha before giving back some of those gains when it was revealed that several key oil exporters would skip the conference. The price for barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude rose almost 8 percent on the week. Shares of the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) were up more than 2.5 percent.

The domestic producer price index (PPI) and consumer price index (CPI) figures were released Wednesday and Thursday. Unchanged for October, the PPI missed expectations of a modest 0.3 percent increase. The CPI figures experienced their biggest uptick in six months primarily due to increasing gasoline prices and rent payments. The pickup in inflation is another indication that the Fed will raise interest rates in December. Despite the increase in mortgage rates, housing starts jumped 25 percent last month. Once again, weekly unemployment claims fell to a fresh multi-decade low at 235,000, below the expected 257,000.

Shares of Cisco Systems (CSCO) fell approximately 6 percent when the tech giant beat consensus estimates, but lowered forward guidance on Wednesday. Salesforce.com (CRM) shares rose more than 5 percent after Thursday’s closing bell following a 2 percent increase in quarterly revenues. Shares of Home Depot (HD) were flat despite an earnings beat and improved forward guidance, while Lowe’s (LOW) shares initially dropped before recovering after missing earnings and revenue forecasts.

Target (TGT) shares rose 7 percent as sales and earnings beat estimates. Wal-Mart (WMT) shares shed almost 3 percent. Although WMT beat analysts’ earnings forecasts, investors were wary of the company’s forward guidance. Shares of Best Buy (BBY) rose 15 percent when the company handily beat forecasts and reported stronger-than-expected same-store sales.

Fund Spotlight: Vanguard’s Growth and Income Fund (VQNPX)

Choosing mutual funds that outperform the market can be difficult, leading many investors to opt for low-cost passive funds. While passive investing garners considerable attention, active investing offers unique benefits that should not be overlooked. Vanguard’s long-term accomplishments demonstrate the advantages of hedging, risk management and flexibility utilized in active management. Talented fund managers with strong track records generally outperform, particularly in less publicized market segments, such as small-caps or international markets.

Low management fees that are competitive with passive investments are possible when active managers apply a disciplined approach. Investors should, however, allow for a longer horizon since they are investing in a manager and a strategy that may see periods of underperformance. The compound returns generated during the up years can offset losses incurred during years of poor performance. This philosophy has enabled Vanguard to attract significant capital inflows into actively managed funds over the past year.

Vanguard’s Growth and Income Fund (VQNPX) is a strong offering with historically modest returns that has consistently outperformed its S&P 500 Index benchmark. The fund has also demonstrated lower downside risk than that of its category peers.

Investment Strategy

VQNPX breaks the portfolio into several sleeves to attain a broadly diversified portfolio of stocks with investment characteristics similar to those contained in the S&P 500, but designed to outperform it. The current managers have been in place since September 2011. Managers and sub-managers work within tight constraints to keep the tracking error low and the beta in line with the index.

When selecting an investment, sub-adviser Los Angeles Capital emphasizes market-cap size, growth and the stock’s beta. The firm also determines whether the market is placing a premium on the prospective company’s shares. The team is led by managers Thomas Stevens and Hal Reynolds.

With Anne Dinning at the helm, a team of eight analysts at sub-adviser D.E. Shaw utilizes models designed to find price inefficiencies. They seek to offset traditional quantitative factors likesuch as value, size and momentum in their analysis by employing other investment criteria, such as trading volume and price movement. They also consider such factors likeas acquisitions and the strength of the company’s balance sheet.

Vanguard’s in-house quantitative equity group manages the third sleeve. Their goal is to create a high-quality portfolio characterized by moderate valuations, positive momentum and strong earnings growth. Two of the three sub-advisers match the S&P 500’s sector weightings, while sub-adviser Los Angeles Capital sometimes deviates.

Portfolio Composition and Holdings

VQNPX falls into the large blend category because it must invest at least 65 percent of assets under management (AUM) in stocks contained within the S&P 500. Typically, the percentage of AUM invested in the index exceeds 90 percent. At the end of September 2016, the fund was almost entirely invested in domestic stocks and held 1,074 individual investments, more than double the benchmark.

The portfolio has 42.6 percent of AUM invested in giant-cap shares as well as a 33.3 and 21.95  percent exposure to large- and mid-cap shares, respectively. Along with a marginal exposure to micro-cap shares, less than 2 percent is allocated to small-caps. The fund’s 10 largest holdings represent 15.9 percent of AUM. In descending order, top holdings are Apple, Johnson & Johnson, Microsoft, Exxon Mobile and Amazon. These are followed by Alphabet, General Electric, AT&T, Proctoer & Gamble and Citigroup.

The management team’s doctrinal approach has produced a portfolio with a valuation that is slightly lower than the benchmark. At 20.4 times earnings, the portfolio has a P/E ratio below the S&P 500’s 22.2. The 2.8 price-to-book ratio is also slightly lower than the benchmark. The average market cap of VQNPX is $44.6 billion, which is approximately half of the S&P’s average. VNQPX is overweight energy, industrials, health care and consumer defensive sectors, and underweight financial services, real estate and technology. Although there is some deviation from the index, sector weightings are usually within 2 percent of those found in the benchmark index.

Historical Performance and Risk

The fund has consistently delivered on the managers’ goal of inching ahead of the benchmark index. Since September 2011, the current management team beat the S&P 500 by an annualized 44 basis points. Although it is not a passive fund designed to completely mimic the benchmark, the fund’s tracking error is less than 1 percent over the past five years.

With a four-star Morningstar rating, VQNPX has delivered average annual one-, three- and five-year returns of 3.93, 9.08 and 13.97 percent, respectively. These compare towith the S&P 500 returns of 4.51, 8.84 and 13.57 percent, respectively. The fund has a high return and a below average risk rating from Morningstar.

VQNPX has a three-year beta of 0.98 compared towith the large-blend category beta of 1.00. The fund’s three-year standard deviation of 10.5 is lower than the category average of 11.07.

Fees, Expenses and Distributions

No-load VQNPX is one of the least expensive actively managed funds in the large-blend category. The fund’s 0.34 percent expense ratio is competitive with its passively managed peers despite its high annual turnover costs and performance fees paid to D.E. Shaw and Los Angeles Capital, a testament to Vanguard’s acumen in keeping costs low.

The fund distributes long- and short-term capital gains annually in December. Semiannual income distributions occur in June and December. The most recent income distribution occurred June 2016 for $0.402 per share with a reinvestment price of $40.17. The fund is scheduled to pay a capital gain of 4.63 percent on December 22, 2016. Investors in taxable accounts may want to wait until after this gain is paid before buying.

There is a $3,000 minimum initial investment.

Suitability

VQNPX provides a diversified low-cost portfolio in a single fund that may be an appropriate core holding. VQNPX may weather a period of rising interest rates better than a typical bond fund as it generates current income and potential capital appreciation and holds stocks that regularly increase dividends.  Currently, we rank the fund as a Strong Buy with a Ranking of 88.