Market Perspective for May 6, 2016

Mixed employment and earnings data pulled stocks lower in early Friday trading, though all three indexes managed to close higher on the day.  For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index were down approximately 1 percent. Profit-taking in Amazon (AMZN) and Apple’s slump led to a 0.84 percent pullback in the Nasdaq. The iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) was off slightly more than 2 percent after the U.S. dollar strengthened.

April’s ISM manufacturing index indicated continued expansion at 50.8. On Tuesday, automakers reported another month of strong light vehicle sales with more than 1.5 million units sold, an increase of 3.6 percent from the same period a year earlier.

The odds of a June interest rate hike dwindled to 4 percent following an ominous jobs report. According to the ADP unemployment report, the private sector created 156,000 jobs in April, less than the estimated 195,000.

Weekly unemployment claims reached 274,000 in April. Non-farm payrolls increased by only 160,000, but the unemployment rate remained constant at 5 percent and average wages rose 2.5 percent on an annualized basis.

Pfizer (PFE) beat its top- and bottom-line revenue expectations and its full year earnings forecast. Merck (MRK) missed expected revenues by 12 percent, but beat earnings estimates thanks to cost-cutting measures. Shares rallied on the news. Mylan (MYL) and Allergan (AGN) were among those down on Friday, pulling pharma down about 6 percent on the week.

On Tuesday, Duke Energy (DUK) reported earnings per share (EPS) of $1.01, which was 17 percent less than consensus estimates. The lower earnings were a result of mild weather and the sale of its Midwest power-generating unit to Dynegy last year. On Wednesday, Tesla Motors (TSLA) exceeded its earnings estimates. The company reported a loss of $0.57 per share, which was 58 percent higher than the same period a year ago. Tesla also indicated that it would meet its delivery quota of between 80,000 and 90,000 vehicles for 2016.

On Thursday, global online retailer Alibaba (BABA) beat expectations with a 39 percent increase in revenues. Shares bucked the downtrend in Chinese tech shares for the week. Oil and natural gas exploration and production company Chesapeake Energy (CHK) reported a loss of $0.10 per share on lower-than-expected revenues of $1.95 billion. Chesapeake expects to generate another $950 million in asset sales as the company strives to fix its balance sheet. Royal Dutch Shell reported a 58 percent drop in revenues due to lower crude prices.

 

Fund Spotlight: Fidelity Value Discovery Fund (FVDFX)

The discussion as to whether the growth or value investment approach is a better strategy has been around for decades. Over various periods, each investing technique has outperformed the other. While growth stocks have had the advantage in the recent eight-year period, value stocks have outperformed their counterparts in 2016. During the first quarter of the year, value-focused mutual funds capitalized on the downturn in the markets to acquire quality stocks with very attractive valuations. This shrewd strategy boosted the total returns of these funds. On average, small-, mid- and large-cap value funds delivered a 2.2 percent return while the three similar categories of growth funds experienced an average 2.2 percent loss. Value stocks are poised to benefit from the current environment of economic expansion and a slow rise in interest rates. Fidelity’s Value Discovery Fund (FVDFX) can help investors diversify portfolios heavily weighted toward growth funds.

Fund Overview

Established in 2002, FVDFX has a four-star Morningstar rating. The large value fund seeks capital appreciation by investing primarily in common stocks that managers believe are undervalued relative to key factors like sales, total assets, earnings and growth potential. The team also compares the share price of the company to organizations in the same industry. The fund invests in domestic and foreign securities. On Dec. 15, 2015, FVDFX had a dividend income distribution of $0.17 per share and a reinvestment price of $22.70.

Investment Strategy

Employing a reasonable and disciplined approach to stock selection, lead manager Sean Gavin has guided the fund since January 2012. His principal philosophy does not necessarily equate a low-value stock with value, but he does believe a high-quality stock selling at a discount is an attractive opportunity. This viewpoint helps to maintain the fund’s low risk profile. Gavin also believes that over time a stock’s market value will converge with its intrinsic value to represent the share’s true underlying worth.

When selecting high-quality names, fund managers look for companies operating in a specific niche or possessing a strong competitive position that builds a barrier, or moat, to entry. The share price must have experienced significant price dislocation. The managers also consider factors such as above-average returns on invested capital, a higher return on equity, strong cash flow and the potential for long-term growth. The belief is that firms with high-quality franchises and attractive valuations provide a large margin of safety. The goal is to benefit from these companies’ lower earnings volatility and higher long-term growth. This strategy enables the fund to focus on capital preservation and take advantage of the intrinsic upside potential. The fund’s portfolio is structured to maintain a higher quality rating as well as a lower beta than the benchmark Russell 3000 Value Index. Because Gavin is a patient investor, the fund has a relatively low turnover ratio.

Gavin does not strictly adhere to the benchmark’s composition or sector weightings. The fund portfolio can deviate from index weightings by as much as 800 basis points in either direction. While it is still broadly diversified, FVDFX typically has less exposure to capital-intensive sectors, such as energy, materials and utilities, where it is generally difficult to find companies that meet the fund’s stringent investment standards. If the company under consideration still meets the fund’s investment criteria, Gavin will seek arbitrage opportunities in the mergers and acquisitions market as an opportunity to own the acquiring company at a more favorable valuation.

Portfolio and Holdings

With $1.83 billion in assets under management, the fund has 87.3 percent in domestic equities and approximately 10 percent allocated to its foreign investment sleeve, which is heavily concentrated in developed Europe. With slightly more than 100 individual holdings, the portfolio comprises mainly giant-, large- and mid-cap companies. The small- and micro-cap share exposure is less than 10 percent. The fund is overweight financial services, healthcare and technology sectors and underweight consumer defensive, real estate and utilities. The top 10 holdings comprise 26.83 percent of invested assets. The fund’s largest holdings are Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), General Electric (GE), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) and Wells Fargo (WFC). Oracle (ORCL), EMC Corp. (EMC), Chevron (CVX), Allergan (AGN) and Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) round out the fund’s top 10 investments. The portfolio has an average market capitalization of $36.55 billion, which is approximately 30 percent less than the benchmark average. FVDFX has a P/E ratio of 14.32 and a 1.59 price-to-book ratio.

Performance and Risk

While generally tracking the underlying index, the fund includes an astute selection of out-of-benchmark holdings like the biopharmaceutical company Dyax (DYAX) and Alphabet (GOOG), the parent of search engine Google. These companies were major contributors to the fund’s historical performance. Excluding underperforming benchmark components such as Citigroup and Kinder Morgan also contributed to the fund’s performance. Stocks that detracted from the fund’s overall performance include fertilizer manufacturer CF Industries, pharmaceutical company Sanofi and drilling equipment supplier BW Offshore. For the most recent 1-, 3- and 5-year periods, FVDFX generated total returns of -3.93, 10.91 and 9.93 percent, respectively. These compare to the category averages of -3.33, 8.14 and 8.50 percent over the same periods. The fund has a 3-year beta and standard deviation of 0.92 and 10.77, which are less than the category averages of 0.98 and 11.70. FVDFX has a high return rating as well as a below-average risk rating from Morningstar. During Gavin’s tenure, FVDFX has kept pace in rising markets while losing only 90 percent as much as its benchmark during pullbacks. The fund has outperformed 94 percent of its category peers since 2012.

Fees and Expenses

The fund has a below-average fee level rating from Morningstar based on its 0.84 percent management expense ratio. While there are no subsequent investment minimums, the fund does request an initial investment of $2,500 to establish an account.

The Benefits of the Value Discovery Fund

FVDFX is a better option than the company’s Blue Chip Value Fund (FBCVX). While the former has a four-star, Bronze rating from Morningstar, the latter is rated at three stars. The portfolio turnover for FVDFX is 45 percent versus the 138 percent for FBCVX, thus reducing trading expenses. Most value funds have a low exposure to the technology sector. At 22 percent, FVDFX has double the 11 percent weighting of the benchmark index. The fund is also underweight energy and consumer staples, two sectors typically overweight in value funds. As a result, FVDFX is a more traditional value fund. For investors who are overweight growth and without exposure to healthcare and financials via sector funds, FVDFX is a good vehicle to increase their value exposure. Investors with existing healthcare, financials, consumer staples or utilities funds should ensure that they are not overweighting their exposure to value stocks.

Currently, we recommend FVDFX as a Strong Buy with a ranking of 90.

Market Perspective for May 2, 2016

April marked the third consecutive monthly gain for the Dow and the second for the S&P 500 this year. Markets opened in the green on Monday. This week earnings are again in focus: Duke Energy, Pfizer and Tesla Motors as well as Alibaba, Chesapeake Energy and Merck are all scheduled to report. The key second quarter economic report this week will be April’s employment report on Friday.

Shares were hampered by Apple’s (AAPL) poor earnings and meager stimulus from world central banks last week, but on the whole earnings are coming in better than expected. Consumer discretionary, healthcare and telecom are reporting earnings much higher than estimates, led by consumer stocks such as Ford (F) and Amazon (AMZN). This week a new crop of companies will try to keep the ball rolling on the earnings front.  On Tuesday, Duke Energy (DUK) is expected to meet consensus estimates of $1.14 per share in earnings as well as $6.05 billion in revenue. Duke Energy is the largest electric power holding company in the United States. Shares of DUK were up 11.5 percent through April 30, aided by the broad rally in the utilities sector. Analysts will review Tesla Motors’ (TSLA) earnings report and future production targets on Wednesday. The company is expected to report a loss of $0.57 per share on revenues of $1.6 billion.

On Thursday, global online and mobile commerce company Alibaba (BABA) is forecast to report earnings of $3.63 and top-line revenues of $23.11 billion. The company figures prominently in Chinese technology funds. Chesapeake Energy (CHK) reports its earnings as well. Analysts are looking for earnings of $0.10 per share and revenues of $2.55 billion, but they are more focused on potential bankruptcy. Seventy Seven Energy (SSE), a CHK fracking unit spun-off in 2014, plans to file for bankruptcy, but CHK shares have rallied strongly amid the rebound in energy prices.

This is a big week for pharma. Pfizer (PFE) is scheduled to report earnings per share of $0.55 on revenues of $12.0 billion. Investors will look to the company’s pipeline of new drugs and its long-term revenue prospects. Merck (M) is expected to release an EPS of $0.85 and revenues of $9.47 billion. Like Pfizer, the company’s drug pipeline and annual forecast will also be at the center of attention.

On Friday, the government is expected to report a slight uptick to 5 percent in unemployment from 4.9 percent currently. The number ticked up in March as discouraged workers returned to seek jobs. The manufacturing sector reported continuing expansion, with both the Markit and ISM surveys reading 50.8 (anything above 50 signals expansion). Overseas PMI figures will also be watched. China’s official PMI showed expansion Sunday night, but the privately produced number from Caixin is expected to indicate contraction. April auto sales will be released on Tuesday; economists forecast 17.5 million vehicles sold. On Wednesday, the ADP unemployment report for April and the March trade balance data will be reported. Trade data are expected to be favorable, with the deficit falling nearly $7 billion from February’s $47.1 billion to $40.5 billion.