Fund Spotlight: Vanguard Convertible Securities (VCVSX)

Convertible securities funds offer the security of bonds without sacrificing upside potential in the equity market. This often overlooked asset class provides investors with a means to soften volatility over the long term. Investors with a well-balanced portfolio who are adding these securities should consider Vanguard Convertible Securities (VCVSX). The fund tracks the performance of the MSCI US Investable Market Index/Financials 25/50. This benchmark index is composed of large, midsize and small-cap companies in the U.S. financial sector. The fund adviser invests all substantial assets under management in securities held in the index.

Convertible Securities

Most simply, a convertible security is a financial instrument that can be changed into another type of investment. In the case of the convertible bond, it can be exchanged for an equity position in the company. Until it is changed into equity shares, the convertible bond will pay a periodic fixed amount of interest based on its coupon rate. The bond will have a specific price at which it can be exchanged for common shares. The coupon rate is typically lower than for a standard bond, but the conversion factor is like a call option on the common shares and rises in value if the stock price rallies. The conversion price is usually set at a price significantly higher than where the stock is trading when the bond is issued. Initially, the bond will trade like a bond, but it tends to be less volatile because a portion of the value lies in the “call option” attached to it. As the price of the stock rises and convertibility becomes possible, the performance of the underlying common shares increasingly influences the price of the convertible bond. If the price moves above the conversion price, at which point it is more profitable to convert the bonds into stock, the bond will begin trading like the stock.

Benefits of Convertible Bonds

These hybrid investments offer benefits to both equity and fixed-income investors. The structure of a convertible bond can preserve capital and reduce volatility while maintaining upside potential due to its equity-conversion component. Over the past 15 years, convertible bonds have participated in approximately two-thirds of the market upside while being subject to only one-third of the downside, based on a rolling three-year period. Lower volatility is especially important for retirees who may be drawing on their assets. Convertibles have benefited from the equity market strength in recent years.

When compared with the passively indexed Vanguard 500 (VFIAX), VCVSX has lagged VFIAX over the past 3- and 5-year periods. However, with an annualized return of 6.12 percent over the past 15 years, VCVSX beat the 5.04 percent return delivered by VFIAX over the same period, with much lower volatility. VCVSX has a three-year trailing standard deviation of 7.3 versus 11.0 for VFIAX.

Investment Strategy

VCVSX is advised by Oaktree, which has a long history of investing in niche debt markets, including convertibles. Fund managers use a fundamental bottom-up analysis with an eye toward value when selecting individual securities, which are evaluated based on their structure and terms. Other criteria include the capital structure of the issuing company and its credit rating. Managers also consider the underlying fundamentals of the stock and its potential for capital appreciation. Managers focus primarily on convertible bonds, with slight exposure to convertible preferred stock. The fund does not buy traditional debt or equity positions. This creates a portfolio of convertibles that offer an equal balance of bond and equity characteristics. Managers prefer to stay fully invested and rarely hold a sizable cash position. The current 5.9-year average duration is within the five- to seven-year target range. The management team assigns a credit rating to each security. Based on this standard, the managers give their fund an average quality rating of BB.

Stu Spangler has overseen the domestic sleeve, which accounts for 70 percent of AUM, since June 2015. Like the U.S. convertibles market in general, the portfolio is concentrated in health care and technology issues. The fund also has significant exposure to the financial sector. While the remainder of the portfolio is broadly invested across other market sectors, managers have reduced the fund’s exposure to energy-related convertibles. Because they lost their balanced characteristics, many energy-related securities were[KRQ1]  no longer attractive. The remaining energy exposure is issued by companies that management believes can withstand the current turmoil in the oil and gas space. Top holdings include convertibles issued by Priceline (PCLN), Red Hat (RHT), Salesforce.com (CRM) and LinkedIn (LNKD).

The fund’s overall performance in recent years has been impacted by a 30 percent increase in exposure to a foreign convertibles sleeve. This European market has underperformed its U.S. counterpart, which has detracted from the fund’s returns. The foreign sleeve, led by Abe Ofer and Jean-Paul Nedelec, can be an attractive feature as it adds to the fund’s diversification and possible long-term prospects. Both managers are founding members of Oaktree and have more than 20 years of experience investing in convertibles. Foreign convertibles tend to be of higher quality and are issued by larger companies than in the U.S., and foreign currency exposure to the U.S. dollar is hedged.

Expenses

VCVSX features a low 0.38 percent expense ratio. In addition to being the least expensive open-end fund, VCVSX is also less expensive than most convertible exchange-traded funds. Long-term investors looking to diversify a portfolio by adding an exposure to convertible bonds should consider VCVSX, which has a four-star rating from Morningstar. The fund has a minimum initial investment of $3,000.

Outlook

Like other credit-oriented markets, convertibles have recently faced selling pressure. The balanced approach followed by VCVSX has enabled it to fare better than most of its peers. At the end of February 2016, the fund’s 4.55 percent loss is less than the average negative 6.08 percent return in the open-end convertibles category. It also performed better than the category’s underlying index.

While the fund is less volatile than a pure stock fund, it does have risk: though much less than the broader market, VCVSX fell nearly 30 percent in 2008. Investors who are averse to equity risk should stick with traditional bonds. The fund is a good fit for investors looking to dial back some of the volatility in their portfolio without giving up all of the upside gains from equities. With a yield of 2.07 percent, VCVSX also won’t sacrifice income for investors switching from a passive index fund such as VFIAX, which currently yields 2.26 percent.

We currently recommend VCVSX as a Strong Buy with a rank of 83.  Should you have questions concerning the suitability of this fund, please call us at (888) 252-5372.


 [KRQ1]Confirm ‘were’ (and not ‘are’) here.

Market Perspective for March 14, 2016

The market opened Monday with a four-week rally under its belt, the best stretch of performance since November of 2015, and managed to maintain those gains despite another drop in oil prices. The European Central Bank cut rates to negative 0.40 percent on Thursday to push asset purchases higher. Employment data also continues to support market growth.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is scheduled to announce their latest policy Tuesday, the Fed policy statement is due out Wednesday and the Bank of England is scheduled to announce its latest monetary policy on Thursday. The three central banks are expected to leave interest rates unchanged.

The most significant news out of the Federal Reserve meeting may be the quarterly “Summary of Economic Projections,” which includes GDP and Fed officials’ interest rate forecasts. At the end of 2015, the majority of FOMC voting members were projecting at least three rate hikes in 2016 based on their year-end forecast of 1.25 percent or more (assuming three 25 basis point hikes). A slowdown in the pace of rate hikes has largely been priced into assets, but a June rate hike is near 50/50 odds following strong labor market data. Financials would fare the best if the Fed’s forecast is hawkish, while utilities and telecom benefit from lower rates.

A slight drop in February retail sales is expected, down 0.2 percent overall and 0.3 percent ex-autos. The home builders’ index for March and housing and building permits for February are all expected to show sector improvement. The consumer price index (CPI) is forecast to drop 0.2 percent due to low oil prices, but core CPI is forecast to rise 0.2 percent. Weekly unemployment claims and the latest U.S. leading economic indicators index will be released on Thursday. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is due out Friday.

Other key data include OPEC’s monthly oil market report, which lowered forecast demand for OPEC oil in 2016 by 100,000 barrels. The reduction was primarily due to economic problems in Latin America and the former Soviet Republics, as well as Europe’s anemic growth rate. OPEC expects non-OPEC countries to reduce production by 700,000 barrels per day this year, but thus far OPEC has yet to announce a freeze or cut. Over the weekend, Japan reported a 15 percent jump in January machine orders, the largest one-month increase since 2003. China reported weak industrial production and slowing fixed asset investment, but Chinese shares rallied Monday on expectations of monetary easing or fiscal stimulus. European industrial production and inflation are due out later in the week.

Oracle (ORCL), Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX), FedEx (FDX), Adobe (ADBE) and Aeropostale (ARO) will all report earnings this week. Analysts are looking for growth in Oracle’s (ORCL) cloud software and infrastructure business. On Tuesday, earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be $0.62 on revenues of $9.13 billion. Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) is expected to report EPS of $2.61. FedEx (FDX) is expected to report EPS of $2.34 and revenue of $12.41 billion on Wednesday. Investors will be looking for information on any changes regarding the company’s share buyback plan. With global logistics operations, FedEx is among the first companies to notice a change in business activity. On Thursday, Adobe (ADBE) is scheduled to announce EPS of $0.61 on revenues of $1.34 billion, while consensus estimates for apparel retailer Aeropostale (ARO) are an EPS of $0.14 on revenues of $521.2 million.

Market Perspective for March 11, 2016

Major indexes closed out a third week of consistent gains with a Friday rally into bullish territory.  The European Central Bank’s decision to increase market intervention seemed to fizzle on Thursday, with most markets low or flat as the euro sharply rose.

On Thursday, ECB President Mario Draghi announced additional interest rate cuts to negative 0.4 percent and a continuation of the bank’s bond-buying program, as expected. Although the markets initially reacted by selling the euro and pushing equities higher, the trend rapidly reversed. Major European equity markets were up as much as 3 percent on Friday, which then propelled U.S. equity indexes. The move especially benefited financials; European bank stocks were up more than 4 percent on Friday and U.S. financials climbed nearly 2.5 percent.

Rising energy prices also boosted the market. Expectations of an OPEC output freeze failed to materialize, leading to volatility early in the week. Prices firmed when the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicated lower production in the U.S. and other non-OPEC countries and U.S. crude rose briefly above $39 per barrel on Friday.

Dollar General (DG) reported a 7-percent increase in quarterly sales. The company also intends to boost its quarterly dividend from $0.22 to $0.25 per share and buy back approximately $1 billion in shares during fiscal 2016. Urban Outfitter (URBN) beat EPS expectations of 56 cents, reporting actual EPS of 61 cents, even as revenues fell short. The news prompted several analysts to raise their price targets. In its first quarterly report as a public company, Square (SQ) reported $374 million in revenue, which exceeded expectations of $344 million. The company reported a 47-percent increase in payment over the same period last year. Shake Shack shares came under heavy selling pressure despite better-than-expected revenue and EPS.  The trendy restaurant chain’s 2015 IPO climbed from $45 per share to $92 in a wave of hype that led to overvaluations in its first few months of trading and has since leveled to a more realistic range.

U.S. Jobless claims were lower-than-expected and wholesale inventories increased in January, both of which are positive for the current quarter’s GDP report. Chinese exports fell 25.4 percent and imports were down 13.8 percent, below analysts’ predictions.   There were also data anomalies such as very high imports from Hong Kong, which indicate the use of trade settlement by investors to avoid capital controls. In the U.S., consumer borrowing slowed in the first month of the year. Although debt rose by a seasonally adjusted $10.54 billion, the change from the previous month was the smallest in almost two years. Strong consumer spending and rising wages continue to bode well for the U.S. economy.

 

ETF Watchlist for March 9, 2016

SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)
S&P Midcap 400 (MDY)
SPDR DJIA (DIA)
PowerShares QQQ (QQQ)
SPDR S&P Dividend (SDY)

SPY has climbed above $199, which represents an important resistance level. A pullback before moving higher is possible, but once SPY climbs above $200, it will have firm support.

Its prior underperformance has primed the small-cap index for a bounce. IWM needs to hold above $107 to break the downtrend in place since June 2015.

The Dow remains in relatively good shape and the dividend-paying stocks represented by SDY continue to set new all-time highs.






WisdomTree Bloomberg USD Bullish (USDU)
CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)
CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar (FXC)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (FXY)
WisdomTree Emerging Market Currency (CEW)

Currencies could be more volatile over the next week as the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve will all hold monetary policy meetings.

The U.S. dollar, represented by the broader index tracked by USDU is approaching a key level, and holding above its current $26.50-$27.00 range preserves the U.S. dollar bull market.

Emerging market currencies have rallied strongly alongside natural resources. The rapid advance calls for a pullback back to $16.75 or so for CEW, while the $17.50 level above is an important near-term resistance level.





United States Oil (USO)
SPDR Energy (XLE)
FirstTrust ISE Revere Natural Gas (FCG)
Global X Copper Miners (COPX)
Market Vectors Coal (KOL)
Market Vectors Steel (SLX)

Oil has experienced a nice rally in the past few weeks and now it faces a key test around the $40 resistance level.

Much of the recent move was driven by short covering that enables a possible pullback. FCG has rallied 40 percent in a little more than a week.

Last week, the U.S. imposed tariffs on steel imports, hitting Chinese steel with triple-digit charges. Steel stocks surged on the news, sending SLX up more than 10 percent on the day. Short covering has helped fuel these moves as well, with iron jumping 19 percent in one day. Until there is a firming of prices and a sustained rally, the industrial metals remain in a bear market with lower lows still possible.







iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM)

EEM has cleared the $32 range and is back into its former trading range. A combination of emerging market currency and crude oil rallies boosted shares. If these trends continue, a push into the high $30s or low $40s is possible later this year.

SPDR Utilities (XLU)
SPDR Pharmaceuticals (XPH)
SPDR Materials (XLB)
SPDR Consumer Staples (XLP)
SPDR Consumer Discretionary (XLY)
SPDR Healthcare (XLV)
SPDR Technology (XLK)
SPDR Financials (XLF)
SPDR Retail (XRT)

Utilities made an important breakout last week; shares of XLU exceeded the high set in early 2015. XLU had been doing well based on weakness in the stock market and falling interest rates, but even now with rates higher and investors wading back into the riskier sectors, utilities is still powering ahead. Consumer staples is also at a 52-week high.



iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG)
iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD)

HYG rallied right to a resistance level prior to a pause. A pullback following the recent rally is likely.

Investment-grade bonds are also attracting investor interest, which have been vulnerable to credit risk as well, as depicted in the chart of the 5-year treasury yield. LQD peaked in February 2015 when rates were only slightly lower than they are now. This leaves some upside potential for these corporate bonds even if interest rates continue to rise.