A bevy of new information impacted the market this week as investors seek more clarity about the future of the economy. When the Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, there was speculation that more cuts may be coming. However, the data released this past week suggests that the consumer remains resilient even as the labor market weakens.
On Wednesday, it was revealed that there were 800,000 new home sales over the past month. This was higher than the expected 650,000 sales and also higher than the 664,000 new sales from July. The increase in new homes being sold may be attributed to lower mortgage interest rates that have trended from 7 percent to closer to 6 percent in recent weeks. Existing home sales were also robust with 4 million occurring over the past month compared to an expected 3.96 million.
On Thursday, the final gross domestic product (GDP) reading for the second quarter was made public. Over those three months, the economy grew by 3.8 percent compared to an initial estimate of 3.3 percent.
On Friday, the PCE Price Index came in at .2 percent for the month, which was in line with expectations. What may be more important than the rise in prices was the accompanying rise in personal spending over the past month. During that time, spending increased by .6 percent while incomes only rose .4 percent.
The Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI came out on Tuesday. The manufacturing PMI came in at 52 while the services PMI came in at 53.9. These figures suggest a growing demand for both tangible goods and services, which may result in a hotter-than-expected economy going forward.
Jerome Powell also spoke this week and suggested that the Fed would tread lightly on future interest rate cuts. He said that the potential for inflation caused by tariffs was still a concern that the Fed took seriously. The statement could be interpreted as a warning to not take more cuts this year for granted.
The S&P 500 had a rare losing week falling 11 points to close at 6,643 at the end of trading Friday. On Monday afternoon, the market made a high of 6,697 before reversing and trending lower for the rest of the week. On Thursday, the market hit a low of 6,577 before reversing and finishing in the middle of the week’s range.
Unlike the S&P, the Dow was up this week having gained 92 points this week, which was an increase of .2 percent for the last five trading days. On Tuesday morning, the market made its high of the week at 46,684 before reversing and hitting a low of 45,835 on Thursday. A rally on Friday allowed the index to make up what it lost during the middle of the week and finish in the green.
The Nasdaq joined the S&P in the red this week falling 104 points to close at 24,503. On Tuesday, the index hit a weekly high of 24,772 before reversing and plummeting to 24,242 on Thursday.
In international news, Australia announced Tuesday that inflation was 3 percent on an annualized basis, which was higher than the expected 2.9 percent. On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) opted to keep the country’s key interest rate at 0 percent. On Friday, Canada announced that the nation’s GDP grew by .2 percent over the past month compared to an expected uptick of .1 percent.
The coming week will have nonfarm payroll reports for September released. The ADP version will be released on Wednesday morning while the BLS version is due out on Friday. On Tuesday, the JOLTS report comes out as well as the CB Confidence report. Finally, the ISM Manufacturing PMI comes out on Tuesday while the ISM Services PMI comes out on Friday.