Last Wednesday, the FOMC made its latest rate decision, and the result created volatility across the markets. While there was some debate over what the Fed was going to do, it decided to hold the line until after the midterm elections. The Fed Funds Rate remains at 3.75 percent to 4 percent until at least December. However, there is rampant speculation that rates will go up at least 25 basis points at the next FOMC meeting.
Fed Chair Warsh hinted at the possibility of a rate hike during his press conference on Wednesday. He said that the FOMC would be better prepared to make a rate decision in December because of the information that will be acquired over the next two months. Warsh also said that energy prices were one of the main drivers of inflation and that his job was to ensure that those increases don’t cause price shocks elsewhere in the economy.
The Core PCE Price Index for September came in at 0.3 percent, which matched market expectations. This is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which means that the next two reports will play a key role in whether the Fed raises the key interest rate or opts to hold the line.
Advance GDP data suggests that the economy grew by 3.4 percent over the third quarter of 2026. This was slightly above the expected 3.2 percent prior to the release of this report. Economic growth in the second quarter was revised upward to 2.2 percent, which further strengthens the argument that the United States is poised for a period of broad and sustained growth going forward.
The S&P 500 was down 1.15 percent this week to close at 7,580. This was a loss of 88 points over the last five trading days, and it pushes the market further into the red for the month of October. During that time, the index lost more than 2 percent. This week, the market made a high of 7746 on Wednesday and a low of 7,539 on Friday.
The Dow was down 648 points this week to close at 51,770. This was a loss of 1.24 percent for the index that tracks the 30 largest companies in the United States. It is now down .02 percent over the last month and up 8.94 percent over the last 12 months. Over the last five days, it made a high of 52,520 early Monday morning and a low of 51,587 on Friday.
Finally, the Nasdaq was down 2.46 percent this week to close at 25,437. This was a loss of 640 over the last five days for a market that is now down 6 percent over the last month. However, it is still up almost 8 percent since this time last year. On Wednesday, the market made a weekly high of 26,562 before reversing and making a weekly low of 25,226 on Friday.
Gold and silver prices fell dramatically this week after the Fed held rates steady. An ounce of gold dropped below $3,900, for the first time since July making a yearly low of $3,869 on Friday. Silver dipped below $49 an ounce on Friday, which also represented a yearly low before rebounding slightly to finish the week.
Next week will be another consequential one for market participants as the United States is holding its midterm elections on Tuesday. Additionally, the JOLTS report comes out on Tuesday while the ISM Services PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI will also be made public next week.