Inflation data was released on Wednesday and mostly fell in line with analyst expectations. Core CPI came in at 0.2 percent for the month while overall CPI was 0.3 percent on a monthly basis. Inflation was 2.4 percent on an annualized basis, which was the same as last month and in line with projections.
On Thursday, unemployment claims for the last seven days was released. Over that time period, there were 213,000 requests for benefits, which was slightly below last week’s figure of 214,000.
On Friday, a slew of important reports were released including preliminary GDP data, the JOLTS report and the Core PCE Price Index. The preliminary GDP report for the fourth quarter found that the economy grew just 0.7 percent during that period. This was roughly half of the initial estimate of 1.4 percent and well below the 4.3 percent growth in the third quarter.
The JOLTS report revealed that there were 6.95 million jobs available in January. This was just below the project 6.74 million and last month’s figure of 6.54 million.
The Core PCE Price Index was up 0.4 percent in January, which was in line with expectations. However, it’s worth noting that this report also reflects data from before the Iran war began. This is also the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. If it continues to rise, it’s possible that the Fed may pause future rate cuts.
Although Trump has indicated that the war may end shortly, oil prices will likely remain elevated for as long as the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to traffic. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which is the benchmark oil price in the United States, spiked to $116 a barrel early Monday morning. It is hovering between $90 and $95 a barrel as of Friday afternoon.
The S&P 500 was down 26.26 points this week to close at 6,631. This represented a drop of 0.39 percent over the course of the trading week. On Tuesday, the index made a high of 6,833 before reversing course and finishing near its weekly lows.
The Dow lost 350 points to finish the week at 46,558. This was a loss of 0.75 percent for the index. It would peak on Tuesday, hitting 48,211, before reversing and closing near the low of the week.
Finally, the Nasdaq lost 32 points this week to finish Friday at 22,105. This was a loss of 0.15 percent. On Tuesday afternoon, the index peaked at 22,902 prior to flipping and finishing the week sliding in negative territory.
In international news, Great Britain announced early Friday morning that GDP growth was flat in February. Canada announced on Friday that its economy shed almost 84,000 jobs in February compared to an expected gain of about 10,000.
The upcoming week will likely be filled with more important news as the war in Iran rages on. Wednesday will be a particularly important news day as the February PPI will be released while the Fed will make its latest interest rate decision. It’s expected that the Federal Funds rate will remain at 3.75 percent.