Market Perspective for June 30, 2024

The final full week of June saw a lot of substantial news, worthy of investor attention. On Tuesday, the CB Consumer Confidence Index was released and came in at 100.4, which is slightly lower than last month’s 101.3. However, it was slightly higher than the 100 that analysts expected prior to the release.

On Wednesday, new home sales data came out and revealed that 619,000 homes had been sold in the past month. It was believed that about 636,000 homes would be sold in the previous month, and the June figure was much lower than the 698,000 from last month. Interest rates have been cited as a major factor in the housing market slump over the past 30 days.

On Thursday, it was revealed that there was a 2.1 percent decrease in the number of pending sales. This means that the market could be in a slump for an extended period as fewer people are even entering into contracts to buy homes. If you’re looking for a silver lining, home sales retreated 7.7 percent in May, so there was a relative improvement in this month’s report.

Also on Thursday, it was revealed that the final gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2024. This was in line with analyst expectations and is the smallest quarterly gain since the economy entered a technical recession in 2022. Finally, unemployment claims data was released on Thursday morning and found that 233,000 people sought benefits in the last seven days. This was about 3,000 fewer than expected and about 6,000 fewer than last week.

On Friday, the monthly Core PCE price index came out, and it presented some good news on the inflation front. The June report indicated that prices increased by just .1 percent, which matched expectations and was the lowest figure since December 2023. Combined with other data released in previous weeks, it could indicate that the Fed might be willing to cut rates before December.

Despite the news this week, the S&P 500 remained almost flat for the week, increasing by just 3.7 points over the last five trading days. The market now stands at 5,460.68, which is near yearly and all-time highs. The low of the week came late Monday afternoon when the market touched 5,452 while the weekly high came on Friday morning when the index hit 5,522.

The Dow also was relatively flat this week closing lower by .31 percent to finish at 39,118. This translates to a loss of 122 points, but it still keeps the market near all-time highs. For the week, the Dow made a low of 38,959 on Wednesday morning and a high of 39,381 on Friday afternoon.

The Nasdaq would also gain only modestly this week finishing up .43 percent to close at 17.732. A weekly high was made Friday morning at 18,027 while the weekly low was made on Monday afternoon when the market dipped to 17,526. As with the other two major indexes, the Nasdaq is also close to its all-time high.

In international news, Canada announced on Tuesday morning that its monthly inflation rate was .6 percent while its annual inflation rate was 2.9 percent. On Tuesday evening, Australia announced that its inflation rate was 4 percent on an annual basis, higher than the expected 3.8 percent. On Thursday night, Japan announced that its inflation rate was 2.1 percent on an annual basis, which was slightly higher than the expected 2 percent.

This upcoming week will be a hectic one despite, the July 4 holiday. On Wednesday, the ADP nonfarm payroll report will come out while the BLS version will come out on Friday. It’s believed that the ADP report will show a net gain of 156,000 jobs while the BLS report will indicate a net gain of 189,000 jobs. In addition, Jerome Powell will speak on Tuesday while the FOMC meeting minutes will be released on Wednesday.

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