The first full trading week of July was highlighted by the release of the FOMC June meeting minutes. However, there was plenty of other news that helped move markets starting with the ISM Services PMI released on Monday morning.
The report came in at 54, which was slightly lower than the expected 54.2 prior to the release. It was also slightly lower than last month’s reading of 54.5. However, this does mean that the services sector is still in a period of expansion. This has been largely true since 2020, and it has both caused inflation to run higher than the Fed would like and has also helped to buoy the overall economy.
On Wednesday, the reveal of the FOMC meeting minutes from June showed a committee that was unsure of where monetary policy should go. A significant number of voting members thought that interest rates would remain roughly the same through the end of the year. However, a similar number of members also thought that rates should go higher.
The main question is whether the conflict in Iran is going to result in elevated energy prices over the months ahead. If so, there may be a need for interest rate hikes according to FOMC members. If not, Chair Warsh has indicated that the economy is in a good place and that there would be no need to increase the main interest rate.
It’s unclear if the conflict is going to end anytime soon, which means that the Strait of Hormuz may or may not be available to handle its normal traffic load. Ultimately, that will be the key to determining whether energy prices stay elevated, which would result in the need for rate hikes according to Fed logic.
Finally, on Thursday, unemployment claims data was released, and it was little changed from last week. Over the last seven days, there were 215,000 requests for benefits, 2,000 fewer than the previous reading of 217,000.
The S&P 500 finished up 63 points for the week to close at 7,575. This was a gain of about 0.85 percent over the past five days for an index that has appreciated 1.8 percent over the past month. For the week, the market made a low of 7,437 on Wednesday before reversing and closing near its weekly high on Friday.
The Dow was down 160 points this week to close at 52,637. That is a loss of about 0.3 percent over the last five trading days, but the index is still up more than 3 percent over the past month. This week, the market made a high of 53,237 on Monday and a low of 52,087 on Wednesday.
Finally, the Nasdaq gained more than 230 points to finish the week at 26,281. The tech-heavy index was up 0.9 percent this week and is up a little more than 1 percent over the last month. This week, it made a low of 25,537 on Wednesday morning before reversing and finishing near the weekly high.
In international news, New Zealand announced on Tuesday that it would hike its key interest rate by 25 basis points from 2.25 percent to 2.5 percent. Canada announced on Friday that its economy added more than 18,000 jobs this month and that its unemployment rate dipped to 6.5 percent.
The upcoming week is sure to be another interesting one for investors. Inflation data will be released on Tuesday morning while Fed Chair Warsh is expected to testify later that same day. The Price Producer Index (PPI) comes out on Wednesday while retail sale data will come out on Thursday. Friday sees the release of the University of Michigan’s inflation and consumer sentiment reports.